15 - Pricing Flashcards
Describe the key assumptions that are crucial to actuarial work in the field of pricing, contribution setting and valuations, as outlined in the syllabus objectives.
The crucial assumptions include, but are not limited to:
* Morbidity
* Mortality
* Persistency
* Claim amount
* Expenses
* Inflation
* Investment return
* Profit requirements
What are the two main approaches used for pricing individual and group benefit arrangements?
The two main approaches are experience-rated and book-rated.
Explain the concept of experience rating in pricing.
Experience rating is a practice where the premium depends wholly or partially on the past experience of the insured. Past experience of the insured group is used as the basis for pricing, whereas experience-rated refers to incorporating some element of experience specific to an individual or group to determine their premium/contribution rate.
How is a book-rated approach typically used for pricing?
A book-rated approach is usually used for pricing health and care benefits where some individual PMI policies may have no-claims discounts (NCDs), which are a specific type of experience rating. Furthermore, experience rating as an approach has become the more common approach when pricing for groups given the balance required between competitive premiums and anti-selection.
In the formula for the risk premium (RP) for a group, RP = Z × A + (1 – Z) × E, what do Z, A, and E represent?
- Z is the credibility factor for this group (0 ≤ Z ≤ 1).
- A is the insurer’s standard risk premium, or book rate, for PMI benefits for the group.
- E is the equivalent risk premium charged based on the past experience of the group.
What factors does the value of the credibility factor (Z) depend on?
The value of Z will depend mostly on the size and the number of years of data available. However, other factors may be involved if the past data affect the reliability with which future experience of a group can be predicted from its past data, or if they affect the relevance of the data to predicting future experience.
Outline the two main pricing methods in the context of healthcare insurance.
The two main pricing methods are the:
* Formula approach - Often used for long-term insurance contracts.
* Cashflow approach - Also used for long-term insurance products, with the main difference between pricing life and health insurance products being in the modelling of the benefit cashflows.
Briefly describe the high-level approach for pricing individual policies.
The high-level approach involves:
1. Choosing the pricing basis and approach, which includes understanding the product and benefit design.
1. Collecting and checking data, making sure to correct any errors.
1. Splitting the data into homogenous groups based on the underlying relevant risk cells.
1. Calculating a burning cost, or the cost of the underlying risk benefit.
1. Analysing the data and the results.
1. Making adjustments to the base values so that they are complete and relevant, representative of the expected period being priced.
1. Determining and calculate the assumptions needed.
1. Projecting forward the expected base cost of the risk benefit being priced.
1. Adjusting the base cost for other loadings such as profit, expenses, including administration, claims, operational and marketing, tax, investment return, and cost of capital (CoC).
1. Considering other considerations which may include competition, cross-subsidies, options, guaranteed and discounts, unique product features, regulation, and market trends.
What is a crucial distinction between pricing for an individual and the process of generating a quote or reviewing the premium for an individual or group?
There is an important distinction between pricing at a product level and the process of generating a quote or reviewing the premium for an individual or a group. The pricing of a product involves building a pricing model. The final output of a pricing model is a premium/contribution table.
What are some sources of uncertainty that necessitate margins in pricing?
Where uncertainty is prevalent in future outcomes, it is prudent to build in margins to ensure, as far as possible, that the insurer’s promises are met. This is especially the case in health and care insurance. The volume of relevant statistics is not nearly as credible as in life insurance; claim outcomes are often more subjective, or less clear-cut, and more influenced by factors outside the control of the insurer, for example, social and economic circumstances.
What are the two main elements that the concern regarding margins depends critically on?
The concern regarding margins depends critically on:
* The degree of risk associated with each parameter used.
* The financial significance of the risk from each parameter.
What are the three approaches to applying margins to the expected values?
The three approaches are:
* Applying margins to the expected values.
* Using a stochastic approach.
* Assuming a higher discount rate.
Outline the key steps involved in pricing for PMI.
The key steps for most modelling exercises involved in deriving a risk premium for PMI are as follows:
* Choose a base period over which to collect claims and exposure data.
* Collect data, checking the accuracy and appropriateness of the data.
* Split the data into homogeneous groups.
* Calculate a historical burning cost premium for each group.
* Analyse the data, and project forward, to identify future trends.
* Adjust and project forward to obtain future risk premiums, which is the expected claim amount over the period that policies covered by the premium rates will be in force.
Define the Burning Cost Premium (BCP) and provide its formula.
A common starting point in the calculation of the risk premium is the BCP. The BCP is the true past risk premium of an actual portfolio of data, meaning the actual cost of claims incurred per policy or per unit of exposure.
* Formula: BCP = Total Claims / Total exposed to risk
* Alternatively: BCP = Average claim amount × Claims incidence rate
What are some factors that might necessitate adjusting the subdivided BCPs to allow for changes in the insurer’s practice or relevance of past data?
The subdivided BCPs may need adjustment due to:
* Policy acceptance: This is the basis on which proposals are accepted, underwritten, or have waiting periods applied.
* Policy coverage: These are the risks covered under the contracts in question relative to the period ahead.
* Marketing and method of distribution: This involves the influence of the selling process on the nature of risks insured or policyholders covered.
* Delays in claims settlement: These relate to the internal practices that may affect the timing of claims settlements.
Explain the significance of splitting data into homogeneous groups for pricing.
Data should be split into risk cells, where the total available data should be subdivided into homogenous subsets. This will:
* Enable greater understanding of the risk profile of each policyholder class and procedure/benefit.
* Help ensure that dangers of cross-subsidies are avoided, which means that profitability will not be dependent on a particular cross-section of policyholders and so the insurer will be less exposed to changes in the business mix.
What are some key considerations when projecting the base value for pricing?
When projecting the base value, it’s important to consider:
* Changes in policyholder profile by benefit option, considering the selective impact of membership movements, for example, older, less healthy policyholders selecting more comprehensive benefit options.
* Claims inflation.
* Trends, for example, changes in claim frequency or utilisation of healthcare services.
* Other changes in cover.
What are the key components involved in the projection for the allowance for inflation in PMI product pricing?
The allowance for inflation should consider the impact on:
* Professional fees and medical treatment, including hospital fees and medical allowances.
* The cost of pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, which may include exchange rate fluctuations in the case where pharmaceuticals and medical equipment are imported.
* The cost of claims, which could include fees paid to external claims administrators responsible for administering claims.
Describe how the risk class of policyholders is typically taken into account when pricing.
The total risk premium for the particular class of policyholders is found by summing the individual risk premiums for each benefit / procedure, as follows:
Risk premium (age, gender) = Σ(i_k × AC_k), where i_k is the incidence rate for benefit / procedure class k, and AC_k is the average claim cost for benefit / procedure class k. These are specific to each policyholder class, determined by age and gender.
What is the purpose of adjusting the risk premium for other loadings?
Insurers adopt many different ways of loading the risk premium for commissions, expenses, the cost of reinsurance, and other margins. Those who start by calculating pure risk premiums will load these premiums, either by applying a simple overall percentage addition or by allowing for expenses in a more detailed way, having regard to their fixed or variable nature.
Explain the concept of “allowance for investment income” in pricing.
The premium formula should recognise, either explicitly or implicitly, that the insurer can expect to earn some investment income on both the premiums received during the period from receipt of premium through to final settlement of claims as well as the reserves held. The investment income estimate should consider the distribution of the insurer’s assets between various asset classes. However, PMI claims are likely to be short-tailed, therefore assumption regarding investment income is not likely to be critical.
What is the significance of “contingency margins” in premium pricing?
A contingency margin can be introduced to allow for uncertainty in projected claims costs. This may be the case when pricing a new benefit or if an insurer is new to the market. It may also be appropriate during times of uncertainty, for example, during a pandemic where the effect on the underlying morbidity, PMI claims and well as access to healthcare services are very uncertain.
Briefly describe “NCDs, excesses, and guarantees” as other considerations in pricing.
The risk premium calculation will be adjusted for excesses, the presence of an NCD rating structure, if one exists, and any other product features that may impact the incidence rate or average claim cost.
What are “cross-subsidies” and why is it important to be aware of them in pricing?
Cross-subsidies refer to the entity concerned that on a medical scheme, of their entire portfolio and there may well be reasons for cross-subsidies between product lines or benefit classes, particularly on expenses. It is important because launching a new product or having enough policies on books to increase or maintain market share might necessitate cross-subsidy.