13. Flashcards
Expected Returns
Expected Returns are based on prob. of possible outcomes. Expected- average if process is repeated.
Expected return has to be possible return?
Doesn’t even have to be possible return
info about var and sd
can use unequal probabilities for the entire
range of possibilities.
Portfolio
a collection of assets
Info about asset risk and return
its important in how it affects the risk ad ret. of the portfolio.
Risk return trade off is measured by
the portfolio expected return and standard
deviation, just as with individual assets.
Diversification
If two stocks are positively correlated, there is a risk-return trade-off between the two securities.
Benefits of diverf. p<1.0
feasible set
the curve that comprises all the possible portfolio combinations. AKA opportunity set
efficient set
the portion of the feasible set that only includes the efficient portfolios (where the
maximum return is achieved for a given level of risk, or where the minimum risk is accepted for a given level of return)
Min. Variance Portf.
the possible portfolio with the least amount of risk
Realized return = expected returns
No, Realized returns are generally not equal to expected returns.
Expected comp. and unexpected comp.
-Any point, unexp. ret. can be either + or -
-Overtime the avg. of the unexp. comp. is 0
Announcement and news
contain both an exp. comp. and a surprise component.
* It is the surprise component that affects a stock’s price and therefore its return.
* This is obvious when we watch how stock prices move when an unexpected announcement is made or earnings are different than anticipated
Efficient mkt
result of investors trading on the unexpected portion of announcements.
* The easier it is to trade on surprises, the more efficient markets should be.
* Efficient markets involve random price changes because we cannot predict surprises
Systematic Risk/ Non diversifiable, market
-factors that affect large no. of assets
-Includes changes in GDP, inflation, int. rate
Unsystematic risk/unique and asset specific risk
-factors that affect ltd no. of assets
-Includes labour strikes, shortage
Principle of Diversification
-Diversification can substantially reduce the variability of returns without an equivalent reduction in expected returns.
* This reduction in risk arises because worse-than- expected returns from one asset are offset by better-than-expected returns from another.
* However, there is a minimum level of risk that cannot be diversified away and that is the systematic portion.
Unsystematic Risk
- The risk that can be eliminated by combining assets into a portfolio.
- Synonymous with unsystematic, unique or asset- specific risk.
- If we hold only one asset, or assets in the same industry, then we are exposing ourselves to risk that we could diversify away.
- The market will not compensate investors for assuming unnecessary risk
Systematic Risk Principle
- The risk that can be eliminated by combining assets into a portfolio.
- Synonymous with unsystematic, unique or asset-specific risk.
- If we hold only one asset, or assets in the same industry, then we are exposing ourselves to risk that we could diversify away.
- The market will not compensate investors for assuming unnecessary risk
How do you measure systematic risk
We use the beta coefficient to measure systematic risk
What does beta tell us
− A beta of 1 implies the asset has the same
systematic risk as the overall market
− A beta < 1 implies the asset has less systematic risk than the overall market
− A beta > 1 implies the asset has more systematic risk than the overall market
Can we define the relationship between the risk premium and beta so that we can estimate the expected return
Yes
The capital asset pricing model(CAPM)
defines the relationship between risk and return
E(RA) = Rf + A(E(RM) – Rf)
* If we know an asset’s systematic risk, we can use the CAPM to determine its expected return. This is true whether we are talking about financial assets or physical assets.
Factors affecting exp. ret. of a security
- Pure time value of money - measured by the risk-free rate.
- Reward for bearing systematic risk - measured by the market risk premium.
- Amount of systematic risk in the security - measured by beta.