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API 580 3 > 11. Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management > Flashcards

11. Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management Flashcards

1
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 1 Purpose
  2. This work process leads to creating and implementing a
A

risk management plan (RMP)

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2
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 1 Purpose
  2. Risk shall be determined by combining the POF (Section 9) and the COF (Section 10). The general form of the risk equation shall be as follows:
A

risk = probability × consequence

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3
Q
  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.1 Determination of the Probability of a Specific Consequence
  3. The probability of credible events leading up to the specific consequence should be factored into the probability of the specific consequence occurring. For example, after a loss of containment, a series of events may be as follows:

a) first, initiation or
b) second, dispersion, dilution, or
c) third, initiation of or failure to
d) additional events until the specific

A

a) failure of safeguards (isolation, alarms, etc.).
b) accumulation of the fluid.
c) initiate preventative action (shutting down nearby ignition sources, neutralizing the fluid, etc.).
d) consequence event (fire, toxic release, injury, environmental release, etc.)occurs.

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4
Q
  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.1 Determination of the Probability of a Specific Consequence
  3. The probability of a specific consequence is tied to the severity of the consequence and may
A

differ considerably from the probability of the equipment failure itself.

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5
Q
  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.1 Determination of the Probability of a Specific Consequence
  3. Probabilities of incidents generally decrease with
A

the severity of the incident.

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6
Q
  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.1 Determination of the Probability of a Specific Consequence
  3. For a specific damage mechanism, the expected mode of failure should be considered when
A

determining the probability of incidents in the aftermath of an equipment failure.

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7
Q
  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.1 Determination of the Probability of a Specific Consequence
  3. The example in Figure 6 serves to illustrate how the probability of a specific consequence could be
A

determined.

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8
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.2 Calculating the Probability of a Specific Consequence

Example

An equipment item containing a flammable fluid is being assessed.

The probability of a specific consequence should be the product of the probability of each event that could result in the specific consequence. In this example, the specific consequence being evaluated is a fire (an example event tree starting with a loss of containment is shown below). The probability of a fire would be:

A

probability of fire = probability of failure × probability of ignition

probability of fire = 0.001 per year × 0.01

probability of fire = 0.00001 or 1.00E–05

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9
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.2 Calculating the Probability of a Specific Consequence

Example (continue)

The probability of no fire encompasses two scenarios (loss of containment without ignition and no loss of containment). The probability of no fire would be:

A

probability of no fire = (probability of failure × probability of non-ignition) + probability of no failure

probability of no fire = (0.001 per year × 0.99) + 0.999 per year

probability of no fire = 0.99999 per year

NOTE (1E10 –5)

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10
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.2 Calculating the Probability of a Specific Consequence

Example (continue)

The probability of no fire encompasses two scenarios (loss of containment without ignition and no loss of containment). The probability of no fire would be: (continue)

A

The probability of all consequence scenarios should equal 1.0. In the example, the probability of the specific consequence of a fire per year) plus the probability of no fire (0.999999 per year) equals 1.0.

If the consequence of a fire had been assessed at $1E07, then the resulting risk would be:

risk of fire =1.00E–05 per year × $1E07 = $100 per year

NOTE The overall risk includes the probability of loss of containment. For example, if the probability of loss of containment is 0.1, the overall risk above is 0.1 × $100/year = $10/year.

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11
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.2 Calculating the Probability of a Specific Consequence

Example (continue)

The probability of no fire encompasses two scenarios (loss of containment without ignition and no loss of containment). The probability of no fire would be: (continue)

A

Typically, there will be other credible consequences that should be evaluated. However, it is often possible to determine a dominant probability/consequence pair, such that it is not necessary to include every credible scenario in the analysis. Engineering judgment and experience should be used to eliminate trivial cases.

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12
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.3 Calculate Risk
  3. risk for each specific consequence. The risk equation can now be stated as:
A

risk of a specific consequence = probability of a specific consequence × specific consequence

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13
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.3 Calculate Risk

The total risk is the sum of the individual risks for each specific consequence. Often one probability/consequence pair will be

A

dominant and the total risk can be approximated by the risk of the dominant scenario.

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14
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.3 Calculate Risk

For the example mentioned in 11.2.1, if the consequence of a fire had been assessed at $1E07, then the resulting risk would be:

A

risk of fire = 1.00E–05 per year × $1E07 = $100 per year

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15
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.3 Calculate Risk

If probability and consequence are not expressed as numerical values, risk is usually determined by plotting the probability and consequence on a risk matrix (see 11.6). Probability and consequence pairs for various scenarios may be plotted to determine risk of each scenario.

A

plotting the probability and consequence on a risk matrix (see 11.6). Probability and consequence pairs for various scenarios may be plotted to determine risk of each scenario.

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16
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 2 Determination of Risk
  2. 2.3 Calculate Risk

Note that when a risk matrix is used, the probability to be plotted should be the probability of the associated consequence, not the POF. Also note that the overall risk shall include

A

the probability of loss of containment. For example, if the probability of loss of containment is 0.1, the overall risk above is

0.1 × $100/year = $10/year.

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17
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 3 Risk Management Decisions and Acceptable Levels of Risk
  2. 3.1 Risk Acceptance
  3. Company may be different in terms of acceptable risk levels, risk management decisions can
A

vary among companies.

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18
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 3 Risk Management Decisions and Acceptable Levels of Risk
  2. 3.1 Risk Acceptance
  3. Cost-benefit analysis is a powerful tool that is being used by many users and companies as
A

one method in determining risk acceptance.

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19
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 3 Risk Management Decisions and Acceptable Levels of Risk
  2. 3.1 Risk Acceptance
  3. Users are referred to ASME PVRC Project 99-IP-01 for more information on
A

risk acceptance.

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20
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 3 Risk Management Decisions and Acceptable Levels of Risk
  2. 3.2 Using Risk Assessment in Inspection and Maintenance Planning
  3. The use of risk assessment in inspection and maintenance planning is unique in that consequence information, which is traditionally operations based, and POF information, which is typically engineering, maintenance, or inspection based, is
A

combined to assist in the planning process.

21
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 3 Risk Management Decisions and Acceptable Levels of Risk
  2. 3.2 Using Risk Assessment in Inspection and Maintenance Planning
  3. Determining the risk of process units, or individual process equipment items, facilitates this, as
A

the inspections are now prioritized based on the risk value

22
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 4 Sensitivity Analysis
  2. Sensitivity analysis typically involves reviewing some or all input variables to the risk calculation to determine
A

the overall influence on the resultant risk value

23
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 4 Sensitivity Analysis
  2. Those key input variables deserve the
A

most attention.

24
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 4 Sensitivity Analysis
  2. This process should ultimately lead to a
A

reevaluation of the key input variables

25
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. Once risk values are developed, they can then be presented in
A

a variety of ways.

26
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. Using a risk matrix or plot is helpful in
A

accomplishing this goal.

27
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. 6.2 Risk Matrix
  3. For risk ranking methodologies that use consequence and probability categories, presenting the results in a risk matrix is a very effective way of
A

communicating the distribution of risks throughout a plant or process unit without numerical values

28
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. 6.2 Risk Matrix
  3. An example risk matrix is shown in Figure 7.
A
  1. An example risk matrix is shown in Figure 7.
29
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. 6.2 Risk Matrix
  3. It is usually desirable to associate numerical values with the categories to provide guidance to
A

the personnel performing the assessment (e.g. probability category C ranges from 0.001 to 0.01)

30
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. 6.2 Risk Matrix
  3. Different sizes of matrices may
A

be used (e.g. 5 × 5, 4 × 4, etc.)

31
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. 6.2 Risk Matrix
  3. Risk categories may be assigned to the boxes on
A

the risk matrix. An example risk categorization (higher, medium, and lower) of the risk matrix is shown in Figure 7.

32
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. 6.3 Risk Plots
  3. When more quantitative consequence and probability data are being used, and where showing numeric risk values is more meaningful to
A

the stakeholders, a risk plot (or graph) is used (figure 8)

33
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. 6.3 Risk Plots
  3. This graph is constructed similarly to the risk matrix in that the highest risk is
A

plotted toward the upper right-hand corner

34
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. 6.3 Risk Plots
  3. Often a risk plot is drawn using log-log scales for a better understanding of
A

the relative risks of the items assessed

35
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. 6.4 Using a Risk Plot or Matrix
  3. Once the plots have been completed, the risk plot (or matrix) can then be used as
A

a screening tool during the prioritization process.

36
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. 6.4 Using a Risk Plot or Matrix
  3. Risk may be described in terms of dollars or other numerical values even if a
A

qualitative analysis has been performed, and the results have been plotted on a risk matrix.

37
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 6 Risk Presentation
  2. 6.4 Using a Risk Plot or Matrix
  3. For cost-related risk, a net present value savings vs inspection time plot may
A

be used to time the inspection activities.

38
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 7 Establishing Acceptable Risk Thresholds
  2. Thresholds that divide the risk plot, matrix, or table into acceptable and
A

unacceptable regions of risk can be developed

39
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 7 Establishing Acceptable Risk Thresholds
  2. Corporate safety and financial policies and constraints or risk criteria influence
A

the placement of the thresholds.

40
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 7 Establishing Acceptable Risk Thresholds
  2. Regulations and laws may also specify or assist in
A

identifying the acceptable risk thresholds.

41
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 7 Establishing Acceptable Risk Thresholds
  2. Reduction of some risks to a lower level may not be practical due to technology and cost constraints. An
A

as low as reasonably practical (ALARP) approach to risk management or other risk management approach may be necessary for these items.

42
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 8 Risk Management
  2. Based on the ranking of items and the risk threshold, the
A

risk management process begins.

43
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

  1. 8 Risk Management
  2. For risks that are judged acceptable, no mitigation may be
A

required and no further action necessary.

44
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

11.8 Risk Management

Mitigation categories for risks considered unacceptable

a) Decommission—Is the equipment really necessary to

A

support unit operation?

45
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

11.8 Risk Management

Mitigation categories for risks considered unacceptable

b) Inspection and Repairs—Can a cost-effective inspection program, with repair as indicated by the inspection results, be implemented that

A

will reduce risks to an acceptable level?

46
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

11.8 Risk Management

Mitigation categories for risks considered unacceptable

c) Consequence Mitigation—Can actions be taken to lessen the COF related to an equipment failure such as

A

operational changes or design changes (e.g. isolation, detection system) that can reduce the COF?

47
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

11.8 Risk Management

Mitigation categories for risks considered unacceptable

d) Probability Mitigation—Can actions be taken to lessen the POF such as

A

material of construction changes, operational changes, or equipment redesign?

48
Q

11 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management

11.8 Risk Management

Mitigation categories for risks considered unacceptable

Risk management decisions can now be made on

A

which mitigation action(s) to take

API 580 3 (4 decks)

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