10. Assessing Consequence of Failure Flashcards
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 1.1 General
- COF analysis shall be performed to estimate the consequences that are likely to occur due to
a failure mode typically resulting from an identified damage mechanism(s)
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 1.1 General
- Consequence should typically be categorized as:
a) safety and
b) environmental
c) economic
a) health impacts,
b) impacts,
c) impacts.
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 1.1 General
- An RBI program will be managed by plant inspectors or inspection engineers, normally managing the POF with
inspection and maintenance planning.
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 1.1 General
- Management and process safety personnel may desire to manage
the consequence side of the risk equation.
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 1.2 Loss of Containment
- Generally evaluated as
loss of fluid to the external environment.
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 1.2 Loss of Containment
- The consequence effects can be generally considered to be in the following categories:
a) safety and
b) environmental
c) production
d) maintenance
a) health impact,
b) impact,
c) losses,
d) and reconstruction costs.
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 1.3 Other Functional Failures
a) Functional or mechanical failure of
b) Heat exchanger
a) internal components of pressure-containing equipment (e.g. column trays, demister mats, coalescer elements, distribution hardware, etc.).
b) tube failure.
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 1.3 Other Functional Failures
c) Heat exchanger tube failures may result in
d) Pressure-relief
e) Rotating
c) contamination and consequent loss of containment.
d) device failure.
e) equipment failure
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 2.3 Quantitative Consequences Analysis
- Involves using a logic model depicting combinations of events to represent the effects of
failure on people, property, the business, and the environment.
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 2.3 Quantitative Consequences Analysis
- Results of a quantitative analysis are
usually numeric
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 2.3 Quantitative Consequences Analysis
Quantitative models factors for create failure scenarios and calculate COF
a) type of process
b) state of the process
a) fluid in equipment;
b) fluid inside the equipment (solid, liquid, or gas);
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 2.3 Quantitative Consequences Analysis
Quantitative models factors for create failure scenarios and calculate COF
c) key properties of
d) process operating
c) process fluid (molecular weight, boiling point, autoignition temperature, ignition energy, density, flammability, toxicity, etc.);
d) variables such as temperature and pressure;
- 1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis
- 2.3 Quantitative Consequences Analysis
Quantitative models factors for create failure scenarios and calculate COF
e) mass of inventory available for
f) failure mode and
g) state of fluid after
e) release in the event of a leak;
f) resulting leak size;
g) release in ambient conditions (solid, gas, or liquid).
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.1 General
The analyst should bear in mind that the resultant consequences should be comparable, as much as possible, for
subsequent risk prioritization and inspection planning
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.2 Safety
- Safety consequences are often expressed as a numerical value or
characterized by a consequence category associated with the severity of potential injuries.
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.2 Safety
- For example, safety consequences could be expressed based on the severity of an injury (e.g. fatality, serious injury, medical treatment, first aid) or
expressed as a category linked to the injury severity (e.g. A through E)
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.3 Cost
- Consequence may be expressed in relative monetary units (e.g. dollars) to the maximum extent practical with an understanding that the numbers are
typically not absolute (For example, low, moderate, and high categories could be assigned values of $100,000; $1,000,000; and $10,000,000, respectively)
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.3 Cost
- It is possible, although not always practical, to assign a monetary value to
almost any type of consequence
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.3 Cost
- Consequences may be placed into
categories that have pre-defined ranges
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.3 Cost
Typical consequences that can be expressed in “cost”
a) production loss due to
b) deployment of emergency response
c) lost product from
d) degradation of
e) replacement or repair of
a) rate reduction or downtime;
b) equipment and personnel;
c) a release;
d) product quality;
e) damaged equipment;
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.3 Cost
Typical consequences that can be expressed in “cost”
f) property damage
g) spill/release cleanup on-site or
h) business interruption
i) loss of market
j) injuries or
k) land
l) litigation;
m) fines;
n) goodwill.
f) off-site;
g) off-site;
h) costs (lost profits);
i) share;
j) fatalities;
k) reclamation;
l) litigation;
m) fines;
n) goodwill.
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.4 Affected Area
- Represents the amount of surface area of the plot plan that
experiences an effect (toxic dose, thermal radiation, explosion overpressure, etc.) greater than a pre-defined limiting value.
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.4 Affected Area
- In order to rank consequences according to affected area, it is typically assumed that
equipment or personnel at risk are evenly distributed throughout the unit.
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.4 Affected Area
- The affected area approach has the characteristic of being able to compare toxic and
flammable consequences by relating to the physical area impacted by a release
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.5 Environmental Damage
Environmental consequence measures are the
least developed among those currently used for RBI
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.5 Environmental Damage
Typical parameters used that provide an indirect measure of the degree of
a) acres of land
b) miles of shoreline ;
c) number of biological or
a) affected per year;
b) affected per year
c) human-use resources consumed;
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.5 Environmental Damage
Typical parameters used that provide an indirect measure of the degree of
d) portrayal of environmental damage almost invariably leads to the use of cost, in terms of dollars per year, for the
loss and restoration of environmental resources.
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
10. 3.6 Categorizing Safety, Health, and Environmental Consequences
table 4 y 5
- 3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis
- 3.7 Other Considerations uences
It is usually possible to develop a monetary estimate for these considerations:
a) loss of reputation leading to
b) future
c) regulatory actions curtailing production or raising costs.
a) loss of market share,
b) insurability,
c) production or raising costs.
10.4 Volume of Fluid Released
- The volume released is typically derived from a combination of
a) volume of fluid
b) failure
c) leak
d) detection and
available for release (Volume of fluid in the piece of equipment and connected equipment items. In theory, this is the amount of fluid between isolation valves that can be quickly closed.);
b) mode
c) rate;
d) isolation time.
- 4 Volume of Fluid Released
2. In some cases, the volume released will be the same as the volume
available for release and other cases not ( due procedure and safeguards)
- 4 Volume of Fluid Released
3. The cost of the lost fluid may be calculated by:
loss of fluid = volume of fluid lost × value of fluid per unit volume
- 5 Consequence Effect Categories
- 5.1 General
- The major factors to consider in evaluating the consequences of failure shall include:
a) flammable
b) toxic
c) release of other
a) events (fire and explosion),
b) releases,
c) hazardous fluids.