11. Judgment, Decision Making, & Reasoning

Question 1

What is the difference between judgment and decision making?

Answer 1

Judgment involves deciding on the likelihood of various events using whatever information is available.

Decision making involves selecting from among several possibilities. Assess quality of our decisions in terms of their consequences (satisfaction).

Judgment often forms part of the decision-making process

Question 2

What is reasoning?

Answer 2

Involves drawing inferences from the knowledge we possess.

Question 3

What is support theory?

Answer 3

An event seems more likely when the various reasons why it might occur are stated explicitly.
(Eg. “What is the probability that you will die on your next summer holiday?” Vs “What is the probability that you will die on your next summer holiday from a disease, a car accident, a plane crash, or any other cause?”)

Question 4

Why do we see an event as more likely when the possible causes are listed? (support theory)

Answer 4

Explicit descriptions draw attention to aspects of an event that are less obvious in non-explicit descriptions
Memory limitations mean people don’t remember all the relevant information if it isn’t supplied.
Even experts showed the above effect despite being able to fill in the details from their own knowledge

Question 5

What is Base-Rate information?

Answer 5

The relative frequency with which an event occurs in the population. It is often ignored or deemphasized when individuals make a judgment.

Question 6

On Krynski & Tenebaum’s False Positive Scenario (mammograms and breast cancer), why are base rates often neglected?

Answer 6

People assume that having breast cancer is the only cause of positive mammograms explicitly mentioned. base rates are more likely to be taken into account if we rephrased the problem to indicate that there is an alternative cause of positive mammograms. Neglect of base-rate information happens when the relevance of base-rate information to a judgment task is unclear.

Question 7

Fred travels every day to work on a bus that departs every hour (6am, 7am, 8am) from the station.
After a long time, Fred notices that on average, 1/10 cases the bus departs before schedule, 8/10 cases it departs 0-10 min late, 1/10 cases it departs more than 10 min late.
Suppose that Fred arrives at the bus stop exactly on time and waits for 10 min without the bus coming, what is the probability that the bus will still arrive?

Answer 7

50% (not 10%)
The bus either already departed or it will depart more than 10min late. so its 10/20 chance which is 50%.

Base rates are over emphasized in this case because it is easy to calculate.

Question 8

How do we induce people to pay more attention to base rate information?

Answer 8

Give them motivation to do so.
Eg. Put saliva on the paper. If it turns blue, means you have a health problem. But this test may be misleading 1/10 of the time. If the paper turns blue, people are more likely to pay attention to base-rate information to argue that they don’t have a health problem.

Question 9

What is an advantage and disadvantage of using heuristics?

Answer 9

Advantage – require little cognitive effort

Disadvantage – often produce only approximately correct answers

Question 10

What is the representative heuristic?

Answer 10

Involves deciding an object belongs to a given category because it appears typical or representative of that category. (Eg. Linda as feminist bank teller vs bank teller)

Question 11

What fallacy are we making when we say that Linda is more likely to be a feminist bank teller than a bank teller? Describe the fallacy.

Answer 11

Conjunction fallacy – the mistaken belief that the conjunction or combination of two events (A and B) is more likely than one of the events on its own.
The description sounds more like that of a feminist bank teller than a bank teller. But this is wrong because p(feminist & bank teller) < p(bank teller) !

Question 12

What is the availability heuristic?

Answer 12

Involves estimating the frequencies of events on the basis of how easy or hard it is to retrieve relevant information from LTM.
Eg. causes of death that attract more publicity (eg. murder, airplane crash) were judged as more likely to cause death than those that don’t (eg. suicide, car crash).

Question 13

What are 2 mechanisms associated with the availability heuristic?

Answer 13

1) Availability-by-recall mechanism (based on the number of people that can be recalled having died from a given risk)
2) Fluency mechanism (based on how easy to recall without retrieving)

Question 14

When do we NOT use the availability heuristic?

Answer 14

When we know the ones we retrieve easily fulfill a different criteria. (eg. we recall famous surnames more easily, but we know they are less common. “Bush” vs “Stevenson”)

Question 15

Why do we still use heuristics in spite of their apparent problems?

Answer 15

Most of the time, being approximately correct is enough!

can be used almost regardless of the amount of information we have available.

Question 16

What are fast and frugal heuristics?

Answer 16

Fast and frugal heuristics involve rapid processing of relatively little information

Question 17

What does the “Take-the-best” heuristic propose?

Answer 17

Assumes you start with the most valid cue to drive your decision, in this case, how recognizable the city name is. The city whose name is more recognizable is assumed to have the larger population

Question 18

What are the 3 components of “take-the-best” heuristic?

Answer 18

1) search rule - Search cues (eg. name recognition; cathedral) in order of validity
2) stopping rule - Stop after finding a discriminatory cue (ie. cue applies to only one of the possible answers)
3) decision rule - Choose outcome

Question 19

What is the recognition heuristic?

Answer 19

When a judgment is made between two objects, it involves selecting the object that is recognized. It persists even in the face of conflicting information. (mainly when less valid cues are used as conflicting information. We rely more on valid cues.)

Question 20

When will people NOT use fast-and-frugal heuristics?

Answer 20

When the decision is important (eg. choosing who to marry)

Question 21

What does the natural frequency hypothesis propose?

Answer 21

We find it easy to work out the frequencies of different kinds of events we encounter in everyday life. Difficult to deal with fractions and percentages because they are more abstract. Performance would improve greatly if problems were framed in natural frequencies

Question 22

When problem is phrased in terms of natural frequency as opposed to probabilities, what happens?

Answer 22

Judgment performance is better.

1) Conjunction fallacy dropped
2) Experts are more likely to use base-rate information

Question 23

Provided participants with index card files organised into 2 categories:
With breast cancer vs No breast cancer
They had to select cards indicating whether the woman in question had a positive mammogram
What did the results show about people’s natural sampling behavior?

Answer 23

Participants’ sampling was heavily biased towards with breast cancer. They produced an average estimation of 63% that a woman had breast cancer given a positive mammogram. (correct answer 7.8%)
They believed mistakenly that it was more informative to select women with breast cancer than those without.

Question 24

What does the dual-process model propose about probability judgments?

Answer 24

Probability judgments depend on processing within two systems - system 1 (automatic) & 2 (controlled)

Question 25

Describe system 1 and 2.

Answer 25

System 1 - intuitive, automatic, and immediate. difficult to control and modify. Tend to produce heuristics. System 2 - More analytical, controlled, and rule-governed. Slower, serial (one at a time), effortful, more likely to be consciously monitored and deliberately controlled. Relatively flexible.

Question 26

What is the relationship between system 1 and 2?

Answer 26

System 1 rapidly generates intuitive answers to judgment problems. These intuitive answers are then monitored or evaluated by system 2, which may correct these answers.

Question 27

When conjunction-fallacy problems were done with secondary tasks, performance was worse. What does this say about system 2?

Answer 27

system 2 requires use of cognitively demanding processes.

Question 28

When presented with conjunction fallacy problems, those who obtained the correct answer took 40% more time than those who got it wrong. What does this reflect about system 2?

Answer 28

it takes longer to use system 2 than system 1

Question 29

When participants did not think aloud, what was the finding when participants did congruent vs incongruent problems? (congruent: system 1 and 2 produce same answer inconguent: system 1 and 2 produce diff answer)

Answer 29

Time taken to produce answers and process info is longer for incongruent than congruent problems REGARDLESS of whether their answers were correct or not. Shows that base-rate information still influenced their behavior and was probably processed below the level of conscious awareness. Most people detect a conflict between their system 1 and 2 response but they fail to inhibit the incorrect response.

Question 30

What is the omission bias in decision making?

Answer 30

A preference for risking harm through inaction than action. Shown even it is more advantageous to take action than inaction. (eg. parents refusing to vaccinate their child as they don't want to feel responsible for their child's death.)

Question 31

Explain the omission bias.

Answer 31

Generally assumed that the level of anticipated regret is greater when an unwanted outcome has been caused by an individual’s own actions.

Question 32

Briefly describe prospect theory.

Answer 32

- evaluations are based on a reference point, which represents the current state - shows loss aversion -- People are much more sensitive to potential losses than to potential gains

Question 33

What are the features and application of loss aversion?

Answer 33

1) Most people require the gain to be substantially higher than the loss in order to accept the gamble 2) In the situation where possible loss is ruinous, then no potential gain would be sufficient. 3) People are more willing to accept a sure gain than a risky but potentially greater gain 4) Most people will take a chance to avoid a sure loss, even if the average expected loss is bigger for the alternative.

Question 34

In terms of self-esteem, which individuals were more likely to take risk?

Answer 34

High self-esteem. Because they have a strong self-protective system that helps them to maintain self-esteem when confronted by threat or loss.

Question 35

How does loss aversion explain the framing effect?

Answer 35

With both versions of the problem (positive and negative framing), the decision made by most participants was designed to avoid definite losses in terms of deaths. They will take the sure gain (positive framing), and avoid a sure loss by taking a risky gamble (negative framing)

Question 36

Participants chose between definite survival of ⅔ of patients (deterministic option) and ⅓ probability of all patients surviving and ⅔ probability of none-surviving (probabilistic option). What did participants choose for 6 unknown people vs 6 close relatives?

Answer 36

6 unknown people -- deterministic option (superior outcome, minimize number of deaths) 6 close relatives -- probabilistic option (everyone subject to same fate so don't have to choose)

Question 37

How do we eliminate framing effects?

Answer 37

List advantages and disadvantages of each option and justify their decision. Allow individuals to think carefully about the available options.

Question 38

What is the sunk cost effect?

Answer 38

Greater tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort, or time has been made Also involves loss aversion and needing to account to others and themselves why they had wasted $100. Sunk cost effect is not found in children and animals.

Question 39

People with damage to the _____ don't show loss aversion. What does this suggest?

Answer 39

Amygdala. Suggest that loss aversion depends on fear.

Question 40

In what situations can emotion not impair decision making?

Answer 40

Expertise. Relevant expertise can make it easier for experts to prevent their emotional states from biasing their decision making.

Question 41

How did the role of accountability influence decision making of participants?

Answer 41

We often feel the need to justify our decisions to other people. Participants in high-accountability condition were more likely to continue their previously course of action and thus showed a stronger sunk-cost effect. Occurred because they experienced a greater need to justify their previous decisions.

Question 42

In complex decision making, Herb Simons argue that we make decisions based on bounded rationality. What is bounded rationality? What are we bounded by? (2 types of constraints)

Answer 42

Bounded rationality -- we are as rational as our processing limitations permit 1) Constraints in the environment (eg. information costs) 2) Constraints in the mind (eg. limited attention, memory)

Question 43

What are the 4 stages of multiattribute utlity theory?

Answer 43

1) Identify what attributes are relevant to the decision 2) Decide how to weigh those attributes 3) Obtain a total utility (sum up weighted attribute value) 4) Select the option with the highest weighted total.

Question 44

How well does the multiattribute utlity theory apply to reality?

Answer 44

In reality, people's decision making falls short of the thorough processing of information proposed by the multiattribute utlity theory. Multiattribute utility theory also assumes that assessment of the utility (Desirability x importance) of an attribute remains constant. But in reality, our preferences can be easily changed in irrational ways.

Question 45

In complex decision making, what are the 4 different strategies that people tend to use?

Answer 45

1) multiattribute utlity theory 2) elimination by aspects theory 3) satisficing theory 4) 5-Phase theory

Question 46

Describe the elimination-by-aspects theory.

Answer 46

Decision makers eliminate options by considering one relevant attribute after another. (Eg. buying a house. First consider geographical location, eliminating all houses outside decided range. Then consider attribute of price, eliminating all properties costing above a certain figure. Process continues attribute by attribute until only one option remains.)

Question 47

What is an advantage and disadvantage of the elimination-by-aspects theory?

Answer 47

Advantage -- undemanding strategy | Limitation -- order in which attributes are considered can influence the final decision

Question 48

Describe the satisficing strategy.

Answer 48

Individuals consider various options one at a time and select the first one meeting their minimum requirements.

Question 49

What are the advantages and limitations of the satisficing strategy?

Answer 49

Advantage: easy to use and valuable when options are considered at different points in time. Disadvantage: doesn't guarantee the best decision (Eg. choosing who to marry - choose the person that first meets your minimum requirements. you don't know who you are going to meet later anyway.)

Question 50

When deciding which apartment to rent, what strategies do people normally use?

Answer 50

People often start by using a simple strategy (eg. elimination-by-aspects; satsficing) When only a few apartments left, people switch to a more complex strategy (eg. multiattribute utlity theory)

Question 51

When choosing which men to date, how did decision making strategies change as number of potential dates increased?

Answer 51

Women shifted from complex to simple strategies as number of men increased

Question 52

What are the 5 phases of the 5-phase theory?

Answer 52

1) Setting goals 2) Gathering information 3) Structuring the decision (ie. listing options + criteria for deciding among them) 4) Making a final choice 5) Evaluating the decision There is flexibility in order of phases Many decision makers return to previous phases if they find it hard to make a decision

Question 53

What is the key phase in the 5-phase theory?

Answer 53

Structuring the decision Decision makers focused on 2-5 options Number of options under consideration decreased over time. But number of criteria or attributes increased.

Question 54

What is deductive reasoning?

Answer 54

Involves drawing conclusions that are definitely valid (or invalid) provided that premises are assumed to be true. Most deductive-reasoning problems are based on formal logic.

Question 55

What does a syllogism consist of? What do we do with syllogisms?

Answer 55

Consists of two premises followed by a conclusion. (P1 → P2 → C) Decide whether the conclusion is valid based on the premises. The validity of the conclusion depends only on whether it follows logically from the premises. The truth or falsity of the conclusion is irrelevant in the real world, only concern here is logic.

Question 56

What is the belief bias?

Answer 56

The tendency to accept believable conclusions and reject unbelievable conclusions regardless of their logical validity.

Question 57

What is conditional reasoning?

Answer 57

A form of deductive reasoning in which people decide on the validity of “If … then” statements.

Question 58

What are the 2 types of fallacies in conditional reasoning?

Answer 58

"If it is raining, then Nancy gets wet" 1) affirming the consequent (Nancy gets wet, therefore it is raining. WRONG) 2) denying the antecedent (It is not raining, therefore Nancy didn't get wet. WRONG)

Question 59

What are the 2 types of valid reasoning in conditional reasoning?

Answer 59

1) Modus Ponens (Affirming the Antecedent) | 2) Modus Tollens (Denying the Consequent)

Question 60

Do people do better on modus ponens or modus tollens problems?

Answer 60

People consistently perform much better with modus ponens than with modus tollens. People generally find it harder to deal with negative than positive information.

Question 61

How does addition of contextual information affect people's performance on conditional reasoning problems?

Answer 61

Impairs performance

Question 62

People with higher working memory capacity do _____ on conditional reasoning tasks.

Answer 62

Better

Question 63

What are the 4 major processing strategies for processing conditional reasoning problems?

Answer 63

``` System 1 Strategies: - Pragmatic strategy - Semantic strategy System 2 Strategies: - Inhibitory strategy - Generative strategy ```

Question 64

Describe the pragmatic strategy in processing conditional reasoning problems and its effectiveness.

Answer 64

- Process problems as we would in an informal conversation | - Associated with numerous errors

Question 65

Describe the semantic strategy in processing conditional reasoning problems and its effectiveness.

Answer 65

- Involves making use of background knowledge but not the form of the argument. (easy to fall prey to belief bias) - Moderate performance

Question 66

Describe the inhibitory strategy in processing conditional reasoning problems and its effectiveness.

Answer 66

- Inhibiting system 1 strategies (pragmatic and semantic strategy) - Only worked well with some types of problems

Question 67

Describe the generative strategy in processing conditional reasoning problems and its effectiveness.

Answer 67

- Involves combining the inhibitory strategy with use of abstract analytic processing. - Consistently good performance on all problems.

Question 68

In the Wason Selection Task, which cards must you flip over to decide if the rule is true? A G 2 7 Rule: “If there is a vowel on one side, then there is an even number on the other side”

Answer 68

A and 7 Remember: Affirm the antecedent; Deny the Consequent 2 is irrelevant! If there is a vowel on the other side, it only tells us the rule MIGHT be correct. If there is a consonant, we have also discovered nothing about the validity of the rule.

Question 69

Why do people do so badly on the Wason selection task? Compared to when it's phrased in a more realistic manner.

Answer 69

People find it harder to reason with abstract items than with concrete ones which are more familiar.

Question 70

What is the matching bias?

Answer 70

The tendency to select cards matching the items named in the rule regardless of whether they are correct.

Question 71

How do we improve performance on the Wason Selection Task?

Answer 71

1) Motivate people to disprove the rule. Frame the questions in a way that relates to them personally. 2) Frame the question in the form of deontic rule “If there is a p then you MUST do q”. Concerned with detection of rule violation (eg. cheating) and so focus participants’ attention on the importance of trying to disprove rules.

Question 72

What are the 2 theories of reasoning?

Answer 72

1) Mental Model approach (Johnson-Laird) | 2) Heuristic-Analytic Model (Evans)

Question 73

What does the mental model approach propose about reasoning?

Answer 73

Assumes that processes involved in reasoning resemble those involved in language comprehension. Implies that when we read something or engage in reasoning, we focus on what the writer is telling us. We focus on what is the case, rather than what is not the case.

Question 74

What is a mental model? Which principle do mental models subscribe to?

Answer 74

A representation of a possible state of affairs in the world. Mental models subscribe to the principle of truth -- they generally represent what is true and ignore what is false

Question 75

After we construct a mental model, how do we know whether the conclusion is valid?

Answer 75

If we can’t construct a mental model consistent with the premises but inconsistent with the conclusion, we know this argument is valid.

Question 76

It is cognitively demanding to construct mental models, and we have limited processes of WM. So which principle do we subscribe to when we create mental models?

Answer 76

Principle of Parsimony -- The notion that individuals tend to construct only a single, simple, and typical model

Question 77

How do we know that limited capacity of WM is needed to construct mental models?

Answer 77

people should find it harder to solve reasoning problems as number of mental models required to draw a valid conclusion increases (86% of people drew the valid conclusion when the premises only allow the generation of one mental model. BUT when premises allow the generation of 2 mental models, only 39% of people could draw a valid conclusion. Figure further dropped to 31% for 3 mental models.)

Question 78

What is a limitation of the mental model approach?

Answer 78

Doesn't account for the large individual differences in reasoning strategies used when people create a mental model.

Question 79

How does the heuristic-analytic theory compare to the mental model theory?

Answer 79

- More emphasis on use of world knowledge and immediate context on reasoning - Less emphasis on deductive reasoning.

Question 80

The heuristic-analytic theory proposes 3 principles of human reasoning. What are they?

Answer 80

1) Singularity principle - Only a single mental model is considered at any given time 2) Relevance principle - Most relevant mental model based on prior knowledge and current context is considered 3) Satisficing principle - The current mental model is evaluated and accepted if adequate.

Question 81

When someone is presented with a reasoning problem, what are the 2 steps that allow us to process the problem?

Answer 81

1) Heuristic processes - use task features, the current goal, and back knowledge to construct a single hypothetical possibility or mental model 2) Analytic processes - Time-consuming and effortful analytic processes may intervene to revise or replace this mental model. Likely to be used by highly intelligent individuals and when sufficient time is available. (accounts for individual differences in reasoning strategies)

Question 82

Presence of belief bias depends on a conflict between ______ and _____ processes.

Answer 82

heuristic; analytic

Question 83

What are 2 limitations of the heuristic-analytic theory?

Answer 83

1) Not clear how individuals decide which analytic processes to use. 2) Notion that reasoning processes can be neatly categorized as heuristic or analytic is an oversimplification

Question 84

What is informal reasoning?

Answer 84

Involves using one’s relevant knowledge to argue persuasively in favor of or against some statement. Such reasoning typically has little or nothing to do with logic.

Question 85

What is the level of association between people's performance on detecting fallacies in informal and deductive reasoning problems?

Answer 85

Weak association. Suggests that different cognitive processes can be involved. Individuals who are good at overcoming belief bias in deductive reasoning often perform well at detecting informal fallacies.

Question 86

What is the key difference between informal and deductive reasoning?

Answer 86

Content of argument and contextual information is important for informal reasoning but for deductive reasoning, only logic is important.

Question 87

What motivates people to engage in informal reasoning?

Answer 87

Persuasion

Question 88

What is myside bias?

Answer 88

Tendency to evaluate propositions form one’s own perspective rather than solely on their merits because this confirms us in the rightness of our views. In everyday life, we often deliberately strive to confirm our own beliefs in the face of opposing beliefs of others.

Question 89

In informal reasoning, focusing on the writer's goals help us to draw _____ inferences. Conditional reasoning was also ______.

Answer 89

more | superior

Question 90

What are 3 factors influencing the perceived strength of a conclusion in informal reasoning?

Answer 90

1) Degree of prior conviction or belief 2) Nature of argument -- Positive arguments have more impact than negative arguments 3) Strength of evidence

Question 91

In everyday life, we engage in a lot of informal reasoning. How does this impair our performance on deductive reasoning tasks based on formal logic?

Answer 91

Participants’ understanding of a reasoning problem may differ from the experimenter’s. the word “if” is ambiguous in natural language. “If A" means “If A and only if A" “If you mow the lawn, I will give you $5”, people will likely interpret it to imply “If you don’t mow the lawn, I won’t give you $5”. However, this interpretation is not consistent with traditional logic. We cannot take the approach of informal reasoning and use it on deductive reasoning

Question 92

What is the difference in goals between informal reasoning and deductive reasoning?

Answer 92

Informal reasoning -- persuading others about the correctness of our beliefs Deductive reasoning -- establishing the truth

Question 93

What is dysrationalia?

Answer 93

The inability to think and behave rationally despite having adequate intelligence

Question 94

What are the 2 reasons for dysrationalia?

Answer 94

1) Most people tend to be cognitive misers, including those with high IQs. We prefer using heuristics to analytic processes. 2) Most people lack the specific knowledge about probability or logic to solve the given problem.