11. Judgment, Decision Making, & Reasoning Flashcards
What is the difference between judgment and decision making?
Judgment involves deciding on the likelihood of various events using whatever information is available.
Decision making involves selecting from among several possibilities. Assess quality of our decisions in terms of their consequences (satisfaction).
Judgment often forms part of the decision-making process
What is reasoning?
Involves drawing inferences from the knowledge we possess.
What is support theory?
An event seems more likely when the various reasons why it might occur are stated explicitly.
(Eg. “What is the probability that you will die on your next summer holiday?” Vs “What is the probability that you will die on your next summer holiday from a disease, a car accident, a plane crash, or any other cause?”)
Why do we see an event as more likely when the possible causes are listed? (support theory)
Explicit descriptions draw attention to aspects of an event that are less obvious in non-explicit descriptions
Memory limitations mean people don’t remember all the relevant information if it isn’t supplied.
Even experts showed the above effect despite being able to fill in the details from their own knowledge
What is Base-Rate information?
The relative frequency with which an event occurs in the population. It is often ignored or deemphasized when individuals make a judgment.
On Krynski & Tenebaum’s False Positive Scenario (mammograms and breast cancer), why are base rates often neglected?
People assume that having breast cancer is the only cause of positive mammograms explicitly mentioned. base rates are more likely to be taken into account if we rephrased the problem to indicate that there is an alternative cause of positive mammograms. Neglect of base-rate information happens when the relevance of base-rate information to a judgment task is unclear.
Fred travels every day to work on a bus that departs every hour (6am, 7am, 8am) from the station.
After a long time, Fred notices that on average, 1/10 cases the bus departs before schedule, 8/10 cases it departs 0-10 min late, 1/10 cases it departs more than 10 min late.
Suppose that Fred arrives at the bus stop exactly on time and waits for 10 min without the bus coming, what is the probability that the bus will still arrive?
50% (not 10%)
The bus either already departed or it will depart more than 10min late. so its 10/20 chance which is 50%.
Base rates are over emphasized in this case because it is easy to calculate.
How do we induce people to pay more attention to base rate information?
Give them motivation to do so.
Eg. Put saliva on the paper. If it turns blue, means you have a health problem. But this test may be misleading 1/10 of the time. If the paper turns blue, people are more likely to pay attention to base-rate information to argue that they don’t have a health problem.
What is an advantage and disadvantage of using heuristics?
Advantage – require little cognitive effort
Disadvantage – often produce only approximately correct answers
What is the representative heuristic?
Involves deciding an object belongs to a given category because it appears typical or representative of that category. (Eg. Linda as feminist bank teller vs bank teller)
What fallacy are we making when we say that Linda is more likely to be a feminist bank teller than a bank teller? Describe the fallacy.
Conjunction fallacy – the mistaken belief that the conjunction or combination of two events (A and B) is more likely than one of the events on its own.
The description sounds more like that of a feminist bank teller than a bank teller. But this is wrong because p(feminist & bank teller) < p(bank teller) !
What is the availability heuristic?
Involves estimating the frequencies of events on the basis of how easy or hard it is to retrieve relevant information from LTM.
Eg. causes of death that attract more publicity (eg. murder, airplane crash) were judged as more likely to cause death than those that don’t (eg. suicide, car crash).
What are 2 mechanisms associated with the availability heuristic?
1) Availability-by-recall mechanism (based on the number of people that can be recalled having died from a given risk)
2) Fluency mechanism (based on how easy to recall without retrieving)
When do we NOT use the availability heuristic?
When we know the ones we retrieve easily fulfill a different criteria. (eg. we recall famous surnames more easily, but we know they are less common. “Bush” vs “Stevenson”)
Why do we still use heuristics in spite of their apparent problems?
Most of the time, being approximately correct is enough!
can be used almost regardless of the amount of information we have available.
What are fast and frugal heuristics?
Fast and frugal heuristics involve rapid processing of relatively little information
What does the “Take-the-best” heuristic propose?
Assumes you start with the most valid cue to drive your decision, in this case, how recognizable the city name is. The city whose name is more recognizable is assumed to have the larger population
What are the 3 components of “take-the-best” heuristic?
1) search rule - Search cues (eg. name recognition; cathedral) in order of validity
2) stopping rule - Stop after finding a discriminatory cue (ie. cue applies to only one of the possible answers)
3) decision rule - Choose outcome
What is the recognition heuristic?
When a judgment is made between two objects, it involves selecting the object that is recognized. It persists even in the face of conflicting information. (mainly when less valid cues are used as conflicting information. We rely more on valid cues.)
When will people NOT use fast-and-frugal heuristics?
When the decision is important (eg. choosing who to marry)
What does the natural frequency hypothesis propose?
We find it easy to work out the frequencies of different kinds of events we encounter in everyday life. Difficult to deal with fractions and percentages because they are more abstract. Performance would improve greatly if problems were framed in natural frequencies
When problem is phrased in terms of natural frequency as opposed to probabilities, what happens?
Judgment performance is better.
1) Conjunction fallacy dropped
2) Experts are more likely to use base-rate information
Provided participants with index card files organised into 2 categories:
With breast cancer vs No breast cancer
They had to select cards indicating whether the woman in question had a positive mammogram
What did the results show about people’s natural sampling behavior?
Participants’ sampling was heavily biased towards with breast cancer. They produced an average estimation of 63% that a woman had breast cancer given a positive mammogram. (correct answer 7.8%)
They believed mistakenly that it was more informative to select women with breast cancer than those without.
What does the dual-process model propose about probability judgments?
Probability judgments depend on processing within two systems - system 1 (automatic) & 2 (controlled)
Describe system 1 and 2.
System 1 - intuitive, automatic, and immediate. difficult to control and modify. Tend to produce heuristics.
System 2 - More analytical, controlled, and rule-governed. Slower, serial (one at a time), effortful, more likely to be consciously monitored and deliberately controlled. Relatively flexible.
What is the relationship between system 1 and 2?
System 1 rapidly generates intuitive answers to judgment problems. These intuitive answers are then monitored or evaluated by system 2, which may correct these answers.
When conjunction-fallacy problems were done with secondary tasks, performance was worse. What does this say about system 2?
system 2 requires use of cognitively demanding processes.
When presented with conjunction fallacy problems, those who obtained the correct answer took 40% more time than those who got it wrong. What does this reflect about system 2?
it takes longer to use system 2 than system 1
When participants did not think aloud, what was the finding when participants did congruent vs incongruent problems?
(congruent: system 1 and 2 produce same answer
inconguent: system 1 and 2 produce diff answer)
Time taken to produce answers and process info is longer for incongruent than congruent problems REGARDLESS of whether their answers were correct or not. Shows that base-rate information still influenced their behavior and was probably processed below the level of conscious awareness. Most people detect a conflict between their system 1 and 2 response but they fail to inhibit the incorrect response.
What is the omission bias in decision making?
A preference for risking harm through inaction than action. Shown even it is more advantageous to take action than inaction. (eg. parents refusing to vaccinate their child as they don’t want to feel responsible for their child’s death.)
Explain the omission bias.
Generally assumed that the level of anticipated regret is greater when an unwanted outcome has been caused by an individual’s own actions.
Briefly describe prospect theory.
- evaluations are based on a reference point, which represents the current state
- shows loss aversion – People are much more sensitive to potential losses than to potential gains
What are the features and application of loss aversion?
1) Most people require the gain to be substantially higher than the loss in order to accept the gamble
2) In the situation where possible loss is ruinous, then no potential gain would be sufficient.
3) People are more willing to accept a sure gain than a risky but potentially greater gain
4) Most people will take a chance to avoid a sure loss, even if the average expected loss is bigger for the alternative.
In terms of self-esteem, which individuals were more likely to take risk?
High self-esteem. Because they have a strong self-protective system that helps them to maintain self-esteem when confronted by threat or loss.
How does loss aversion explain the framing effect?
With both versions of the problem (positive and negative framing), the decision made by most participants was designed to avoid definite losses in terms of deaths. They will take the sure gain (positive framing), and avoid a sure loss by taking a risky gamble (negative framing)
Participants chose between definite survival of ⅔ of patients (deterministic option) and ⅓ probability of all patients surviving and ⅔ probability of none-surviving (probabilistic option).
What did participants choose for 6 unknown people vs 6 close relatives?
6 unknown people – deterministic option (superior outcome, minimize number of deaths)
6 close relatives – probabilistic option (everyone subject to same fate so don’t have to choose)
How do we eliminate framing effects?
List advantages and disadvantages of each option and justify their decision. Allow individuals to think carefully about the available options.
What is the sunk cost effect?
Greater tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort, or time has been made
Also involves loss aversion and needing to account to others and themselves why they had wasted $100. Sunk cost effect is not found in children and animals.
People with damage to the _____ don’t show loss aversion. What does this suggest?
Amygdala. Suggest that loss aversion depends on fear.
In what situations can emotion not impair decision making?
Expertise. Relevant expertise can make it easier for experts to prevent their emotional states from biasing their decision making.
How did the role of accountability influence decision making of participants?
We often feel the need to justify our decisions to other people. Participants in high-accountability condition were more likely to continue their previously course of action and thus showed a stronger sunk-cost effect. Occurred because they experienced a greater need to justify their previous decisions.
In complex decision making, Herb Simons argue that we make decisions based on bounded rationality. What is bounded rationality? What are we bounded by? (2 types of constraints)
Bounded rationality – we are as rational as our processing limitations permit
1) Constraints in the environment (eg. information costs)
2) Constraints in the mind (eg. limited attention, memory)
What are the 4 stages of multiattribute utlity theory?
1) Identify what attributes are relevant to the decision
2) Decide how to weigh those attributes
3) Obtain a total utility (sum up weighted attribute value)
4) Select the option with the highest weighted total.
How well does the multiattribute utlity theory apply to reality?
In reality, people’s decision making falls short of the thorough processing of information proposed by the multiattribute utlity theory.
Multiattribute utility theory also assumes that assessment of the utility (Desirability x importance) of an attribute remains constant. But in reality, our preferences can be easily changed in irrational ways.
In complex decision making, what are the 4 different strategies that people tend to use?
1) multiattribute utlity theory
2) elimination by aspects theory
3) satisficing theory
4) 5-Phase theory
Describe the elimination-by-aspects theory.
Decision makers eliminate options by considering one relevant attribute after another.
(Eg. buying a house. First consider geographical location, eliminating all houses outside decided range. Then consider attribute of price, eliminating all properties costing above a certain figure. Process continues attribute by attribute until only one option remains.)
What is an advantage and disadvantage of the elimination-by-aspects theory?
Advantage – undemanding strategy
Limitation – order in which attributes are considered can influence the final decision
Describe the satisficing strategy.
Individuals consider various options one at a time and select the first one meeting their minimum requirements.
What are the advantages and limitations of the satisficing strategy?
Advantage: easy to use and valuable when options are considered at different points in time.
Disadvantage: doesn’t guarantee the best decision
(Eg. choosing who to marry - choose the person that first meets your minimum requirements. you don’t know who you are going to meet later anyway.)
When deciding which apartment to rent, what strategies do people normally use?
People often start by using a simple strategy (eg. elimination-by-aspects; satsficing)
When only a few apartments left, people switch to a more complex strategy (eg. multiattribute utlity theory)
When choosing which men to date, how did decision making strategies change as number of potential dates increased?
Women shifted from complex to simple strategies as number of men increased
What are the 5 phases of the 5-phase theory?
1) Setting goals
2) Gathering information
3) Structuring the decision (ie. listing options + criteria for deciding among them)
4) Making a final choice
5) Evaluating the decision
There is flexibility in order of phases
Many decision makers return to previous phases if they find it hard to make a decision
What is the key phase in the 5-phase theory?
Structuring the decision
Decision makers focused on 2-5 options
Number of options under consideration decreased over time. But number of criteria or attributes increased.
What is deductive reasoning?
Involves drawing conclusions that are definitely valid (or invalid) provided that premises are assumed to be true.
Most deductive-reasoning problems are based on formal logic.
What does a syllogism consist of? What do we do with syllogisms?
Consists of two premises followed by a conclusion. (P1 → P2 → C)
Decide whether the conclusion is valid based on the premises. The validity of the conclusion depends only on whether it follows logically from the premises. The truth or falsity of the conclusion is irrelevant in the real world, only concern here is logic.
What is the belief bias?
The tendency to accept believable conclusions and reject unbelievable conclusions regardless of their logical validity.
What is conditional reasoning?
A form of deductive reasoning in which people decide on the validity of “If … then” statements.
What are the 2 types of fallacies in conditional reasoning?
“If it is raining, then Nancy gets wet”
1) affirming the consequent (Nancy gets wet, therefore it is raining. WRONG)
2) denying the antecedent (It is not raining, therefore Nancy didn’t get wet. WRONG)
What are the 2 types of valid reasoning in conditional reasoning?
1) Modus Ponens (Affirming the Antecedent)
2) Modus Tollens (Denying the Consequent)
Do people do better on modus ponens or modus tollens problems?
People consistently perform much better with modus ponens than with modus tollens. People generally find it harder to deal with negative than positive information.
How does addition of contextual information affect people’s performance on conditional reasoning problems?
Impairs performance
People with higher working memory capacity do _____ on conditional reasoning tasks.
Better
What are the 4 major processing strategies for processing conditional reasoning problems?
System 1 Strategies: - Pragmatic strategy - Semantic strategy System 2 Strategies: - Inhibitory strategy - Generative strategy
Describe the pragmatic strategy in processing conditional reasoning problems and its effectiveness.
- Process problems as we would in an informal conversation
- Associated with numerous errors
Describe the semantic strategy in processing conditional reasoning problems and its effectiveness.
- Involves making use of background knowledge but not the form of the argument. (easy to fall prey to belief bias)
- Moderate performance
Describe the inhibitory strategy in processing conditional reasoning problems and its effectiveness.
- Inhibiting system 1 strategies (pragmatic and semantic strategy)
- Only worked well with some types of problems
Describe the generative strategy in processing conditional reasoning problems and its effectiveness.
- Involves combining the inhibitory strategy with use of abstract analytic processing.
- Consistently good performance on all problems.
In the Wason Selection Task, which cards must you flip over to decide if the rule is true?
A G 2 7
Rule: “If there is a vowel on one side, then there is an even number on the other side”
A and 7
Remember: Affirm the antecedent; Deny the Consequent
2 is irrelevant! If there is a vowel on the other side, it only tells us the rule MIGHT be correct. If there is a consonant, we have also discovered nothing about the validity of the rule.
Why do people do so badly on the Wason selection task? Compared to when it’s phrased in a more realistic manner.
People find it harder to reason with abstract items than with concrete ones which are more familiar.
What is the matching bias?
The tendency to select cards matching the items named in the rule regardless of whether they are correct.
How do we improve performance on the Wason Selection Task?
1) Motivate people to disprove the rule. Frame the questions in a way that relates to them personally.
2) Frame the question in the form of deontic rule “If there is a p then you MUST do q”. Concerned with detection of rule violation (eg. cheating) and so focus participants’ attention on the importance of trying to disprove rules.
What are the 2 theories of reasoning?
1) Mental Model approach (Johnson-Laird)
2) Heuristic-Analytic Model (Evans)
What does the mental model approach propose about reasoning?
Assumes that processes involved in reasoning resemble those involved in language comprehension. Implies that when we read something or engage in reasoning, we focus on what the writer is telling us. We focus on what is the case, rather than what is not the case.
What is a mental model? Which principle do mental models subscribe to?
A representation of a possible state of affairs in the world. Mental models subscribe to the principle of truth – they generally represent what is true and ignore what is false
After we construct a mental model, how do we know whether the conclusion is valid?
If we can’t construct a mental model consistent with the premises but inconsistent with the conclusion, we know this argument is valid.
It is cognitively demanding to construct mental models, and we have limited processes of WM. So which principle do we subscribe to when we create mental models?
Principle of Parsimony – The notion that individuals tend to construct only a single, simple, and typical model
How do we know that limited capacity of WM is needed to construct mental models?
people should find it harder to solve reasoning problems as number of mental models required to draw a valid conclusion increases (86% of people drew the valid conclusion when the premises only allow the generation of one mental model. BUT when premises allow the generation of 2 mental models, only 39% of people could draw a valid conclusion. Figure further dropped to 31% for 3 mental models.)
What is a limitation of the mental model approach?
Doesn’t account for the large individual differences in reasoning strategies used when people create a mental model.
How does the heuristic-analytic theory compare to the mental model theory?
- More emphasis on use of world knowledge and immediate context on reasoning
- Less emphasis on deductive reasoning.
The heuristic-analytic theory proposes 3 principles of human reasoning. What are they?
1) Singularity principle - Only a single mental model is considered at any given time
2) Relevance principle - Most relevant mental model based on prior knowledge and current context is considered
3) Satisficing principle - The current mental model is evaluated and accepted if adequate.
When someone is presented with a reasoning problem, what are the 2 steps that allow us to process the problem?
1) Heuristic processes - use task features, the current goal, and back knowledge to construct a single hypothetical possibility or mental model
2) Analytic processes - Time-consuming and effortful analytic processes may intervene to revise or replace this mental model. Likely to be used by highly intelligent individuals and when sufficient time is available. (accounts for individual differences in reasoning strategies)
Presence of belief bias depends on a conflict between ______ and _____ processes.
heuristic; analytic
What are 2 limitations of the heuristic-analytic theory?
1) Not clear how individuals decide which analytic processes to use.
2) Notion that reasoning processes can be neatly categorized as heuristic or analytic is an oversimplification
What is informal reasoning?
Involves using one’s relevant knowledge to argue persuasively in favor of or against some statement. Such reasoning typically has little or nothing to do with logic.
What is the level of association between people’s performance on detecting fallacies in informal and deductive reasoning problems?
Weak association. Suggests that different cognitive processes can be involved.
Individuals who are good at overcoming belief bias in deductive reasoning often perform well at detecting informal fallacies.
What is the key difference between informal and deductive reasoning?
Content of argument and contextual information is important for informal reasoning but for deductive reasoning, only logic is important.
What motivates people to engage in informal reasoning?
Persuasion
What is myside bias?
Tendency to evaluate propositions form one’s own perspective rather than solely on their merits because this confirms us in the rightness of our views. In everyday life, we often deliberately strive to confirm our own beliefs in the face of opposing beliefs of others.
In informal reasoning, focusing on the writer’s goals help us to draw _____ inferences. Conditional reasoning was also ______.
more
superior
What are 3 factors influencing the perceived strength of a conclusion in informal reasoning?
1) Degree of prior conviction or belief
2) Nature of argument – Positive arguments have more impact than negative arguments
3) Strength of evidence
In everyday life, we engage in a lot of informal reasoning. How does this impair our performance on deductive reasoning tasks based on formal logic?
Participants’ understanding of a reasoning problem may differ from the experimenter’s.
the word “if” is ambiguous in natural language. “If A” means “If A and only if A”
“If you mow the lawn, I will give you $5”, people will likely interpret it to imply “If you don’t mow the lawn, I won’t give you $5”. However, this interpretation is not consistent with traditional logic. We cannot take the approach of informal reasoning and use it on deductive reasoning
What is the difference in goals between informal reasoning and deductive reasoning?
Informal reasoning – persuading others about the correctness of our beliefs
Deductive reasoning – establishing the truth
What is dysrationalia?
The inability to think and behave rationally despite having adequate intelligence
What are the 2 reasons for dysrationalia?
1) Most people tend to be cognitive misers, including those with high IQs. We prefer using heuristics to analytic processes.
2) Most people lack the specific knowledge about probability or logic to solve the given problem.
