10. Population growth Flashcards
How is the worlds populations changing?
Every year, about 83 million people are being added to the world’s population. Almost all of this net population increase is in developing countries.
What question should we be adressing when assessing population growth?
How does the contemporary population situation in many developing countries contribute to or detract from their chances of realising the goals of development, not only for the current generation but also for future generations
What relationship is there between poverty and family size?
The positive relationship between poverty and family size
By 2050, what will the population of developing countries be and how has this changed since 1950?
In 1950 about 1.7 billion people lived in developing countries, representing about two-thirds of the world total; by 2050, the population of less-developed countries will reach over 8 billion, nearly seven-eighths of the world’s population
How is the population of the least developed countries going to change from 1950-2050?
The population of the least-developed countries will increase by tenfold, from about 200 million to 2 billion people.
By contrast how is the population of developed countries expected to change?
In contrast, the population of the developed countries will grow very little between now and 2050, even accounting for immigration from developing countries
What is the population growth rate in Africa compared to the rest of the world?
The population growth rate in Africa is still an extremely high 2.3% per year compared to 1.2%
What is the reason for sudden change in the overall population?
The reason for the sudden change in overall population trends is that for almost all of recorded history, the rate of population change, whether up or down, had been strongly influenced by the combined effects of famine, disease, malnutrition, plague, and war—conditions that resulted in high and fluctuating death rates. In the twentieth century, such conditions came increasingly under technological and economic control. As a result, human mortality (the death rate) is now lower than at any other point in human existence.
What proportion of the world’s people live in developing countries?
More than three-quarters of the world’s people live in developing countries
What does the natural increase in population mean?
Natural increase simply measures the excess of births over deaths or, in more technical terms, the difference between fertility and mortality.
How have births per women changed in developing countries such as Bangladesh, Columbia and Mexico?
From 1970 to 2017, births per woman fell in Bangladesh from 7 to 2.1; in Jamaica from 5.3 to 2; in Colombia from 5.3 to 1.8; and in Mexico from 4.9 to 2.2; note that all four of these once high-fertility countries are now close to or below replacement fertility.
Why are births falling slower than expected in Africa according to a 2019 report?
This results in part from disruptions in female education due to factors including international debt-related austerity and violent conflict
How much greater is lifespan in developed countries than developing?
The average life span remains about 12 years greater in the developed countries
How do age characteristics compare between low income to developed countries?
As of 2018, children under the age of 15 constitute 42% of the total population of the low-income countries compared to just 17% in high income
What are some of the reasons for much higher birth rates?
- Limited access to education for women
- Families relying on children for labour or support in old age
- Lack of family planning services
- Cultural and religious beliefs (against contraception for example)
What is replacement fertility?
Close to 2
Give a statistic that shows how population growth will be concentrated in developing countries, by births per woman?
The 47 least developed countries had average fertility rates of 4.3 births per woman and will see population almost double by 2050
Where was fertility below replacement levels?
In 83 countries comprising about 46% of global population
Between 2020-2050 how are the populations of African countries expected to change?
26 countries in Africa are projected to at least double
What is the youth dependency ratio?
The ratio of children under age 15 to adults of working age (15-64)
What were the 3 stages of population growth that Europe went through?
- High birth and death rates
- Continued high birth rates and declining death rates
- Falling birthrates and death rates eventually stabilising
Explain the Malthusian population trap
The population is rising due to high birth rates but production is subject to diminshing demand due to fixed factors such as farming land. Only where population declines will income per capita increase if not, the population will be stuck at subsistence
What would those in support of the Malthusian trap argue poor countries should do?
Poor countries will always be stuck at a subsistence equilibrium without preventative checks (eg. family planning)
What did Malthus mean by positive checks?
Famine, war, disease
How can the economy escape the population trap?
Only if income per capita exceeds a certain level of income per capita but the only way to get here is to decrease the population growth rate below the income growth rate
What is the key criticism of Malthus’ theory?
It overlooks the role of technological progress. This is because, with improvements in technology the growth rate of income could potentially remain above the population growth rate in which case countries could avoid the population trap until population growth slows down
Is Malthus’ theory still relevant?
- Many believe that Malthusian trap holds in poor countries today, although there is no conclusive empirical evidence linking population growth to income per capita
Why with a country’s development may we observe a decline in fertility?
- Economic development may alter the costs and motivations for having children shifting incentives to favour higher investment per child and fewer children
Why may the level of capital intensity in production effect the fertility rate?
In high income countries where production is human capital intensive, fewer but more educated/skilled children may be desirable
Why may fewer children be optimal in high income countries(4)?
- Capital insensive production
- Children are expensive to raise direct and indirectly
- Reduction in child mortality lowers the incentive to have many children to ensure some survive to adulthood
- Increased social protection for the elderly reduces need for children to support
How can you set up a model for the indifference relation for children?
Plot goods consumed by parents on the y-axis and number of children desired on the x-axis
How would an increase in the cost of children change the budget constraint?
It would make it steeper
How would an increase in household income change the budget constraint?
It would shift it outwards
What are some of the arguments that population growth is not a real problem?
The real problem is not population growth but the following:
- Under-development
- World resource depletion and environmental destruction
- Population distribution
What are some of the arguments for population growth is a real problem?
- Lower economic growth
- Adverse impact on education and health - food insecruity
- Impact on the environment
What is the consensus in the debate on population growth?
- Population growth may be a cause of lower living standards but it is not the only cause
What are some policy approaches that could reduce fertility?
Fertility will be lower where there is:
- More female employment at higher wages (opportunity cost)
- Less reliance on unskilled labour in production
- Reductions in infant mortality
- Development of old-age and social security plans
- Affordable prices and better information on contraception
- Reducing male child preference
What does the household theory of fertility show?
It shows how a rise in the cost of children coupled with increased household income can result in higher consumption of other goods and fewer children
How are children often viewed in poor societies?
Children in poor societies are seen partly as economic investment goods in that there is an expected return in the form of both child labour and the provision of financial support for parents in old age so the first two or three children may be viewed as “consumer” goods for which demand may not be very responsive to relative price changes.
Why may sons be favoured? (3)
- Daughters have to look after their husbands family rather than their biological family in many cultures
- Sons are viewed as having higher lifetime earnings potential for support in old age
- Sons may be considered more suitable for heavy labour (family farm)
- Dowry payments not needed
