XRs And XR Systems 2 Flashcards
Where does the demand for a nation’s currency comes from
- same of exports to other countries
- inflows of financial capital into a country such as FDI
- speculative demand for a currency including inflows of hot money into the baking system
- inflows of remittance incomes
Causes of changes in the XR
- floating XR- determined by market demand for and supply
- much currency dealing is speculative
- trade and investment flows
- factors mentioned in the graphic will usually lead to a currency appreciation
What factors determine a currency’s value
- trade balances
- FDI
- portfolio investment
- interest rate differentials
How does the trade balance determine a currency’s value
Countries that have a strong trade and current account surplus tend to see their currencies appreciate as money flows into the circular flow from exports of goods and services and from investment income
How does FDI determine a currency’s value
High net inflows of capital investment from overseas will see an increase in the currency demand and a rising XR
How does portfolio investment determine a currency’s value
Strong inflows of portfolio investment into equities and bonds from overseas can cause a currency to appreciate
How do interest rate differentials determine a currency’s value
Countries with relatively high interest rates can expect to see ‘hot money’ flowing in and causing an appreciation of the XR
Impact of a rise in policy interest rates by a central bank
More attractive for investors = inflows of money = outward shift in demand for currency = appreciation
Impact of a recession in a trading partner
Fall in exports = worsened trade balance = inward shift of currency demand = depreciation
Impact of the UK Brexit Vote
Fears of recession = expectation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates = currency traders uncertain = get rid of pounds in currency market = outward shift of market supply = depreciation
Economic effects of a currency depreciation (UK context)
- import prices rise
- export prices fall
Impact of a currency depreciation (UK context) on inflation
Higher import prices = may help avoid deflation, lower real interest rates
Impact of a currency depreciation (UK context) on economic growth
Lower £ is a stimulus to growth e.g. from higher net exports
Impact of a currency depreciation (UK context) on unemployment
Competitive currency will help to increase domestic production, export multiplier effect, upturn tourism / overseas students
Impact of a currency depreciation (UK context) on investment
Should help to improve profitability