Wk 8 - Risk and Real Rate of Return Flashcards
What is reward
The difference between the expected HPR E(r) and the risk-free rate rf
Reward is known as the RISK PREMIUM
What are risk premiums
Expected return in excess of that on risk-free securities
What is Excess Return
Rate of return in excess of Risk-free rate
What is the calculation for Risk Premium
Risk Premium = E(r) - rf
Risk Premium = Expected HPR - Risk Free Return
What is risk aversion
Reluctance to accept risk
What is a risk premium of 0 called
Fair Game
What is Risk Averse
Require risk premium
Willing to take risk only when the risk premium is +ve
Implies investors will accept a lower reward (measured by E(r)) in exchange for a sufficient reduction in risk (measured by the SD of their portfolio retrun)
What is Risk Neutral
Does not react to risks
Expected return is the only decision role
What is Risk Seeking
Does not require +ve risk premium
Satisfied by taking risks rather than E(r)
Will participate fair game / gambling
What is Utility Function
u = E(r) - 0.5A * σ^2
E(r) = Expected return on asset
σ^2 = Risk (Variance of Returns)
A = The degree (coefficient) of risk aversion
How do you quantify an investor’s degree of risk aversion
Assume investors choose portfolios based on both expected return E(rp), and the volatility of returns as measured by the variance σp^2
Risk Averse investors will demand higher risk premiums to place their wealth in portfolios with higher volatility
What is the formula for measuring Risk Aversion
E(rp) - rf = 1/2 * A * σp^2
Assume that the risk premium is proportional to the product of their risk aversion, A, and the variance of the risky portfolio’s rate of return, σp^2.
What is the Risk premium and Standard Deviation of a Risk free asset
Risk premium = 0
SD = 0
What is the Sharpe Measure
S measures the incremental rewad for each increase of 1% in the SD of that portfolio
A higher Sharpe measure indicates a better reward per unit of volatility (more efficient portfolio)
What is the Sharpe measure formula
S = [E(rp) - rf] / σp
= portfolio risk premium / standard deviation of the portfolio
What is market risk
-Risk from factors that affect the entire market
-Cannot be eliminated through diversification
- Causes inc: Δ interest rates, exchange rates, geopolitical events, or recessions.
What is the formula for market risk
[ E(rm) - rf ] / σm
Numerator represents the market risk premium (extra reward above risk free rate)
How is the general trend in prices measured
CPI
Measures the cost of purchasing a bundle of goods
at 10% annual rate of return, could you have bought 10% more goods with the extra money
suppose rate of inflation (i) or ( %Δ CPI), amounted to i = 6%
with a 10% rate of return, - 6% reduction in purchasing power = net ^ purchasing power = 4%
how do you distinguish between nominal and real interest rate
If R = nominal rate, r = real rate, and i = inflation rate
r ≈ R - i
The real rate is approx. the nominal rate - loss of purchasing power
What is the precise relationship between Real and Nominal interest rate
1 + r = (1+R) / (1+i)
Rearranged:
r = (R-1) / (1+i)
r = real
R = nominal
i = Inflation rate
If interest rate on a 1 year investment is 8% and inflation is 5%, Calculate the approximate and exact real rate provided by the investment
Approx:
r = 8% - 5% = 3%
Exact:
r = (0.08-0.05) / (1+0.05) = 0.0286 = 2.86%
If you invest all funds into risky assets, what does y =
y=1
If you invest all funds into risk-free assets, what does (1-y) =
(1-y) = 1
If you invest all funds into risk-free assets, what does y =
y = 0
If you invest all funds into risky assets, what does (1-y) =
(1-y) = 0
What is the risk and return for a combined portfolio where 50% of the funds are invested into both Risky and Risk-free assets
E(rc) = yE(rp) + (1-y)rf
σc = yσp + (1-y)σf
How do you calculate the risk premium of the complete portfolio
The risk premium of the complete portfolio = risk premium of the risky asset * the portion invested into the risky asset
How do you calculate the Standard Deviation of the complete portfolio
The Standard Deviation of the complete portfolio = SD of the risky asset * the portion invested into the risky asset
What is CAL
Capital Allocation Line
Available risk-return combinations by changing the value of y
What is the formula for the Slope of CAL
S= [ E(rp) - rf ] / σp
What does the slope of CAL represent
The slope = the ^ in E(r) per unit of additional SD.
Extra return per Extra Risk -> Sharpe measure
It is the same for the risky portfolio and the complete portfolio (inc risk-free)