Weeks 7-12 Flashcards
Joint reasons
multiple reasons within an overall argument that are related to each other, and to some extent are mutually supporting.
Independent reasons
support the conclusion (one hopes), but are not strongly related to each other, and must be considered separately. Multiple weak reasons do not add up to one strong reason.
intermediate conclusion
In longer lines of reasoning, groups of related reasons will often be presented close together in sets. Each set of related reasons will then be used to support an intermediate conclusion. A series of intermediate conclusions will then support a final conclusion.
Assumptions
are (often unstated) ideas that are taken for granted. They are not reasons, but underlie reasons; if the assumption is wrong, the reason is invalid.
A fallacy
a form of argument that may be superficially persuasive, but that is nevertheless invalid
Faulty cause (post hoc ergo propter hoc)
Assumption that because one thing comes after another, it must be caused by it
Since I started long-distance running, I’ve put on 20 pounds and my hair has started going grey. That proves running is bad for me.
the list of fallacies
Faulty cause Hasty generalization Bifurcation (black and white thinking) Ad hominem (damning the source) Equivocation straw man
Hasty generalization
A broad generalization is made based on a small and perhaps unrepresentative sample
John Smith is a politician, and he got caught taking bribes. That proves all politicians are crooks.
Bifurcation (black and white thinking)
The assumption that two categories are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
“Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.” (George W. Bush)
Ad hominem (damning the source)
Attempting to discredit an argument by discrediting the source of the argument.
Example: Hitler was a vegetarian. That proves vegetarianism is no good.
Equivocation
Using a word in two different ways in two different parts of the argument.
Neoclassical economics assumes people are rational. Therefore, if people don’t act the way neoclassical economics predicts they should, people must be irrational.
straw man
You set up an extreme or very weak version of the other person’s argument and refute that, instead of trying to refute the original argument.
My opponent wants to invoke the right to bear arms to oppose my attempts at gun control. I guess my opponent wants to see mental patients with artillery in their garage
Appeal to authority
Justifying a claim by citing the approval of a widely respected or admired individual or group, even if that person is not an expert in the field.
Professor Jones has a Nobel Prize in physics, and he says vitamin C is great for colds.
heuristics
Nobody, including the most famous of thinkers, thinks everything through in a systematic, step-by-step manner. Instead, people use a variety of shortcuts. These shortcuts sometimes lead to erroneous conclusions, but they often save tremendous amounts of time. These shortcuts are called .
The point is not that these heuristics are wrong, the point is that we should be aware of them, so we can double-check conclusions we come to.
Please note that most people use these heuristics without being aware of it.
Some basic heuristics
The affect heuristic The availability heuristic Hindsight bias Self-serving bias, overconfidence, and illusions of control Correspondence bias (a.k.a. fundamental attribution error) Story bias Truthiness Just world beliefs Probability neglect Regression toward the mean Confirmation bias
The affect heuristic
If you feel positive emotions about an object or issue position, you will tend to assume that the object or issue position is good and that all things about it are good. Similarly, if you feel negative emotions about an object or issue position, you will tend to assume that the object or issue position is bad, and that all things about it are bad.
Why it sometimes works:
Our emotions are often grounded in our past experiences with the object or issue position.
Why it can lead to problems:
Our emotions are often irrational and based on fairly trivial aspects of a situation.
Even when an object really is good, it does not mean that all aspects are good.
Example: vaccinations
The availability heuristic
When trying to decide how likely it is that an event will occur (or how frequently it occurs), try to think of examples. If many examples come to mind easily, conclude that it is likely to happen. If you have considerable difficulty thinking of examples, conclude that it is unlikely to occur.
Why it sometimes works:
Events that occur frequently will generally be easier to think of examples of than events that occur infrequently.
Why it can lead to problems:
Other factors can make it easy to recall examples besides how frequently the event occurs.
Vividness
Being on the news
Hindsight bias
Hindsight bias is the tendency, when one knows the answer to a question or the outcome of a process, to believe that one would have known that answer or the outcome much earlier than naïve observers actually do.
Example: highly pixelated pictures gradually becoming clearer
Example: A lot more people claimed they saw the Great Recession coming after it occurred than claimed it was going to happen before it occurred.
Why it’s a problem: You will tend to think things that are obvious to you are obvious to other people, and will have low opinions of people who fail to see the “obvious”
