Weeks 9-12 Flashcards
What is FDI?
- Investment in another country which is
carried out by companies or individuals
– rather than using, financial instruments, FDI
involves investment in plant and equipment - World Bank Definition
- For the investor, the goal is to add value
– the project should offer a positive NPV.
Alternatives to FDI
– Exporting
– Importing
– Licensing
– Technology Sales
– Management Contracting
– Turnkey Projects
– Portfolio Investment
If Alternatives Exist…
- Why do firms move abroad as direct
investors?
– Why enter a foreign country using FDI instead of
exporting or licensing? - After all - how can direct-investing
overseas firms be expected to compete
successfully with local firms in the host
country?
– They have a natural disadvantage of
operating in unfamiliar foreign territory
Why use FDI?
Market imperfections to overcome.
MNC needs:
– advantages
– to be able to transfer them
Consider:
– Costs
– Benefits
* Direct Cash-flow Benefits (see over)
* Indirect Cash-flow Benefits
– Leverage
– Information
– Perceptions (supply & service)
– Risks
FDI Direct Cash-flow Effects
- Cost Related Motives
- Revenue Related Motives
- International Portfolio Diversification
– Cash-flow stability (uncorrelated cash-flows)
Cost Related Motives
▪ Fully benefit from economies of scale
Lower average cost per unit resulting from increased production.
▪ Use foreign factors of production
Labor and land costs can vary dramatically among countries.
▪ Use foreign raw materials
Develop the product in the country where the raw materials are
located.
▪ Use foreign technology
▪ React to exchange rate movements
When a firm perceives that a foreign currency is undervalued, the firm
may consider FDI in that country, as the initial outlay should be
relatively low.
Revenue-Related Motives
▪ Attract new sources of demand
MNCs commonly pursue FDI in countries experiencing economic
growth so that they can benefit from the increased demand for products
and services there.
▪ Enter profitable markets
When similar industries are generating very high earnings in a particular
country, an MNC may decide to sell its own products in those markets.
▪ Exploit monopolistic advantages
Firms possessing resources or skills not available to competing firms
may attempt to exploit it internationally.
▪ React to trade restrictions
MNCs may pursue FDI to circumvent trade barriers
International
Portfolio Diversification
By diversifying sales (and even production) internationally, a
firm can potentially make its net cash flows less volatile.
Diversification Analysis of International Projects
* Select foreign projects whose performance levels are not highly
correlated over time.
Conditions facilitating
successful FDI
- Economies of scale
- Managerial and marketing expertise
- Technology
- Financial strength
- Differentiated product line
- Competitive home market
FDI & Politics
Pros
▪ for LDC’s, FDI introduces investments “that have worked”
elsewhere
▪ positive externalities
▪ the ideal FDI solves problems such as unemployment and
lack of technology without taking business away from local
firms.
Incentives to encourage FDI
▪ Governments are particularly willing to offer incentives for
FDI that will result in the employment of local citizens or an
increase in technology.
Cons
* Economic colonialism/exploitation
* Country reliant on foreign firms
* Retard development of local firms
Indirect Barriers to FDI
* Ethical differences — A business practice that is perceived to
be unethical in one country may be ethical in another.
* Political instability — If a country is susceptible to abrupt
changes in government and political conflicts, the feasibility
of FDI may be dependent on the outcome of those conflicts.
Direct Government Barriers to FDI
- Regulatory barriers — Each country enforces its own regulatory
constraints pertaining to taxes, currency convertibility, earnings
remittance, employee rights, and other policies. - Protective barriers — Agencies may prevent an MNC from
acquiring companies if they believe employees will be laid off - “Red Tape” barriers — Procedural and documentation
requirements - Industry barriers — Local firms may have substantial influence
on the government and may use their influence to prevent
competition from MNCs - Environmental barriers — Building codes, disposal of
production waste materials, and pollution controls
What is Country Risk?
- Country risk vs. Political risk. Is there a difference?
- Country Risk focuses on the
– Political and
– Financial factors
Characteristics of the host country, including political and
financial conditions, that can affect a MNC’s cash flows.
(Madura, page 698)
An MNC conducts country risk analysis when it applies
capital budgeting to determine whether to implement a
new project in a particular country or to continue
conducting business in a particular country.
Political Risk
Political actions taken by the host government or the
public that affect the MNC’s cash flows.
(Madura, page 701)
Social factors are hard to quantify
* political stability
* protection of property rights
* respect for the law
* democracy, dictatorship and kleptocracy
* corruption
– corruption indices - an attempt to quantify
Political Risk Characteristics
Attitude of consumers in the host country
* A tendency of residents to purchase only locally produced
goods.
Actions of the host government
* A host government might impose pollution control standards
and additional corporate taxes, as well as withholding taxes
and fund transfer restrictions.
Blockage of fund transfers
* A host government may block fund transfers, which could
force subsidiaries to undertake projects that are not optimal
(just to make use of the funds).
Currency inconvertibility
* Some governments do not allow the home currency to be
exchanged into other currencies.
War
* Conflicts with neighbouring countries or internal turmoil can
affect the safety of employees hired by an MNC’s subsidiary or
by salespeople who attempt to establish export markets for the
MNC.
Inefficient bureaucracy
* Bureaucracy can delay a MNC’s efforts to establish a new
subsidiary or expand business in a country.
Corruption
* Corruption can occur at the firm level or with firm-government
interactions. Transparency International has derived a
corruption index for most countries (next slide)
Measuring Country Risk
Macro-assessment of country risk
* represents an overall risk assessment of a country and
considers all variables that affect country risk except
those that are firm-specific.
Micro-assessment of country risk
* involves assessment of a country as it relates to the
MNC’s type of business.
Techniques to Assess Country Risk
Checklist approach:
* Ratings assigned to various factors
Delphi technique:
* Collection of independent opinions without group discussion
Quantitative analysis:
* Use of models such as regression analysis
Inspection visits:
* Meetings with government officials, business executives, and
consumers to clarify risk
Combination of techniques:
* Many MNCs have no formal method but use a combination of
methods
Country risk: Economic Factors
- Factors to consider:
– government fiscal irresponsibility
– unproductive spending
– controlled versus fixed exchange rates systems
– the country’s resource base
– adjustment process to external shocks
– market-orientated policies
Other factors to consider:
Country risk: Economic Factors
Other factors to consider:
– interest rates: higher interest rates tend to slow growth and reduce
demand for MNC products
– exchange rates: strong currency may reduce demand for the country’s
exports, increase volume of imports, and reduce production and
national income.
– inflation: inflation can affect consumers’ purchasing power and their
demand for MNC goods.
– balance of payments
– unemployment
– reliance on export income
Deriving A Country Risk Rating
An overall country risk rating using a checklist approach can
be developed from separate ratings for political and financial
risk
* First, the political factors are assigned values within some
range.
* Next, these political factors are assigned weights. The assigned
values of the factors times their respective weights can then be
summed to derive a political risk rating.
* The process is then repeated to derive the financial risk rating.
* Once the political and financial ratings have been derived, a
country’s overall country risk rating as it relates to a specific
project can be determined by assigning weights to the political
and financial ratings according to importance.
Governance of the
Country Risk Assessment
- MNCs need a proper governance system to ensure that managers
fully consider country risk when assessing potential projects. - One solution is to require that major long-term projects use input
from an external source (such as a consulting firm) regarding the
country risk assessment of a specific project and that this
assessment be directly incorporated in the analysis of the project.
Analysis of Existing Projects - An MNC should not only consider country risk when assessing a
new project but should also review the country risk periodically
after a project has been implemented. - If an MNC has a subsidiary in a country that experiences adverse
political conditions, it may need to reassess the feasibility of
maintaining this subsidiary.
Incorporating Country Risk
in Capital Budgeting
Adjustment of the discount rate:
* Lower risk rating implies higher risk and higher
discount rate.
* Risks arguably unsystematic
Adjustment of the estimated cash flows:
* Could account for the uncertainty of country risk
characteristics while also allowing for uncertainty in
the other variables as well.
* Adjust estimates for the probability that cash flows
may not be realised. (See next exhibits)
What to do about country risk
- Avoidance
- Insurance
– In Australia, try EFIC (like U.S. DFC)
– Cost issues arising from information asymmetry - Negotiating with the Host Government
– to affect returns - Controlling the environment
– Structuring the Investment (to affect risk) - Short-Term Horizon
- Unique Supplies or Technology
- Hire Local Labour
- Borrow Local Funds
International Acquisitions
Motives for International Acquisitions
* Form of foreign direct investment
– Market for corporate control is a means for MNCs to
achieve market expansion goals
* Economies of scale / synergies
* Resource access
* Gaining competitive advantage
Trends in International Acquisitions
* Traditionally, MNCs tend to focus on geographic regions and
use stocks or cash to make their purchases
* Recent developments: Emerging markets expansion, geo-
political tensions, national security, rise in private equity,
industry consolidations.
Model for Valuing a Foreign Target
When an MNC subsequently engages in restructuring, it
affects the structure of its assets, which will ultimately affect
the present value of its cash flows.
Control Decisions as Real Options
Real Assets
* Physical / Tangible assets
Real Options on Real Assets
* Management decision-making flexibility
* Can be seen as the ability to defer / gather information
Call option on real assets
* Expansion: Represents a proposed project that contains an
option of pursuing an additional venture.
Put option on real assets
* Abandonment: Represents a proposed project that contains an
option of divesting part, or all, of the project.
International partial acquisitions
A partial international acquisition requires less funds because
only a portion of the foreign target’s shares are purchased.
Issues
* Reliance on local management
* Unable to fully integrate / standardise
* Conflicting interests
* Dividend policies
* Lack of liquidity in minority stakes
* Lack of knowledge sharing
When an MNC considers a partial acquisition, it must take the
perspective of a passive investor rather than as a decision maker
International Acquisition
Valuation Challenges
- Potential conflict between government control and acquirers
may exist - Political conditions can be volatile
- Economic conditions are uncertain in transitional economies
- Future cash flows are uncertain due to potential introduction of
competition - Exchange rate forecasting
- Taxation / Legal system differences
- Privatised businesses
– Data regarding value and benchmarks are limited - Unanticipated business integration challenges
International Divestitures
The valuation of a proposed international divestiture requires
comparing the present value of the cash flows if the project is
continued to the proceeds that would be received (after taxes) if the
project is divested.
External forces that could reduce the present value:
* a weakening economy in the host country could reduce expected
cash flows to be generated by the subsidiary
* a reduction in the foreign currency could reduce the exchange
rate at which cash flows are converted to the home currency
* higher taxes imposed by the host government would reduce the
expected cash flows of the subsidiary
* an increase in the MNC parent’s cost of capital would increase
the discount rate at which expected future cash flows are
discounted when determining the present value of the subsidiary
International Corporate Governance
The system of controls, regulations and incentives designed to
control corporations across countries.
Legal Framework Emphasis
* Shareholders v Stakeholder Balanced Approach v CSR
* Compliance: Sarbanes-Oxley & EU Directives
Governance by Board Members
* Board members who are employees of a foreign subsidiary may
maximise the benefits to the subsidiary
Governance by Institutional Investors
* Institutional investors commonly hold a large proportion of a
firm’s shares (incentives to be active)
Cultural Differences
* Attitudes towards authority, collectivism and individualism.
Market for Corporate Control
If managers make decisions that destroy value, the MNC could be
subject to takeover, and managers could lose their jobs.
* Hostile takeovers are a governance mechanism
Barriers to International Corporate Control
* Anti-takeover amendments implemented by target: Target may
implement an anti-takeover amendment that requires a large
proportion of shareholders to approve the takeover.
* Poison pills implemented by target: Grants special rights to
managers or shareholders under specified conditions.
* Host government barriers: Governments of some countries
restrict foreign firms from taking control of local firms, or they
may allow foreign ownership of local firms only if specific
guidelines are satisfied.
External Sources of Equity
Components of Capital
- Domestic Equity Offering (public)
– MNCs can engage in a domestic equity offering in their
home country in which the funds are denominated in their
local currency. - Global Equity Offering (public)
– Some MNCs pursue a global equity offering in which they
can simultaneously access equity from multiple countries. - Private Placement (domestic / international)
– Offer a private placement of equity to financial institutions /
private investors in their home country or in the foreign
country where they are expanding.
External Sources of Debt
Components of Capital
- Domestic Bond Offering
– MNCs commonly engage in a domestic bond offering in their home
country in which the funds are denominated in their local currency. - Global Bond Offering
– MNCs can engage in a global bond offering, in which they
simultaneously sell bonds denominated in the currencies of multiple
countries. - Private Placement of Bonds
– MNCs may offer a private placement of bonds to financial institutions in
their home country or in the foreign country where they are expanding. - Loans from Financial Institutions
– An MNC’s parent commonly borrows funds from financial institutions.
Establishing a World-Wide
Capital Structure
- What factors influence capital structure?
- component costs of capital
- taxes
- interactions of components
- The Goal:
- to determine the mix of debt and equity that
maximises shareholder wealth - But is capital structure relevant?
Modigliani and
Miller
- The irrelevancy statement (MM1)
The market value of any firm is
independent of its capital structure - The cost of capital (MM2)
