weeks 1 to 7 info Flashcards
How many ways can 10 math books, 3 history books, 5 biology books, and 2 French books be arranged if books of the same subject must stay together?
Combinatorial Analysis
4!×10!×3!×5!×2!4!×10!×3!×5!×2!
Permutations of grouped objects: Multiply permutations within groups by permutations of the groups.
How many distinct permutations are there of the word “BALLOON”?
Permutations with Duplicates
7!2!×2!=12602!×2!7!=1260
Divide by factorial counts of repeated letters (B, A, L×2, O×2, N).
A committee of 3 is formed from 10 people. How many committees are possible?
Combinations
(103)=120(310)=120
(nr)=n!r!(n−r)!(rn)=r!(n−r)!n!.
18 children are divided into two teams of 9. How many divisions are possible?
Multinomial Coefficients
18!9!9!=48,6209!9!18!=48,620
Multinomial coefficient for dividing into equal groups.
IfP(A)=0.4P(A)=0.4,P(B)=0.5P(B)=0.5, andP(A∩B)=0.2P(A∩B)=0.2, findP(A∪B)P(A∪B).
Probability Axioms
0.4+0.5−0.2=0.70.4+0.5−0.2=0.7
Inclusion-Exclusion Principle:P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B).
In a communication system withnnantennas (mmdefective), what is the probability the system is functional if no two defective antennas are consecutive?
Conditional Probability
(n−m+1m)(nm)(mn)(mn−m+1)
Combinatorial counting: Place defective antennas with gaps.
A medical test is 99% accurate for disease detection (1% prevalence). If you test positive, what is the probability you have the disease?
Bayes’ Theorem
0.99×0.010.99×0.01+0.01×0.99≈50%0.99×0.01+0.01×0.990.99×0.01≈50%
Bayes’ Formula:P(Disease∣+)=P(+∣D)P(D)P(+)P(Disease∣+)=P(+)P(+∣D)P(D).
A die is rolled. LetXXbe the outcome. ComputeE[X]E[X].
Expected Value
1+2+3+4+5+66=3.561+2+3+4+5+6=3.5
E[X]=∑x⋅P(X=x)E[X]=∑x⋅P(X=x).
CalculateVar(X)Var(X)for a fair die roll.
Variance
E[X2]−(E[X])2=916−3.52≈2.92E[X2]−(E[X])2=691−3.52≈2.92
Var(X)=E[X2]−(E[X])2Var(X)=E[X2]−(E[X])2.
What is the probability of 6 heads in 9 fair coin tosses?
Binomial Distribution
(96)(0.5)9=84×1512≈0.164(69)(0.5)9=84×5121≈0.164
PMF:(nk)pk(1−p)n−k(kn)pk(1−p)n−k.
Calls arrive at 2 per minute. FindP(exactly3callsin2minutes)P(exactly3callsin2minutes).
Poisson Distribution
e−4433!≈0.195e−43!43≈0.195
Poisson PMF:P(k)=e−λλkk!P(k)=e−λk!λk(λ=2×2=4λ=2×2=4).
A batter with a 30% hit rate. What isP(firsthiton4thtry)P(firsthiton4thtry)?
Geometric Distribution
(0.7)3×0.3=0.1029(0.7)3×0.3=0.1029
Geometric PMF:P(X=k)=(1−p)k−1pP(X=k)=(1−p)k−1p.
From 10 balls (4 red, 6 blue), 3 are drawn. FindP(2red)P(2red).
Hypergeometric Distribution
(42)(61)(103)=6×6120=0.3(310)(24)(16)=1206×6=0.3
Hypergeometric PMF:(Kk)(N−Kn−k)(Nn)(nN)(kK)(n−kN−K).
GivenF(x)F(x)with jumps at 0, 1, 3, findP(X=3)P(X=3).
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
F(3)−F(3−)=0.9−0.5=0.4F(3)−F(3−)=0.9−0.5=0.4
P(X=a)=F(a)−limx→a−F(x)P(X=a)=F(a)−limx→a−F(x).
A system has 5 components, each working with probability0.80.8. FindE[workingcomponents]E[workingcomponents].
Linearity of Expectation
5×0.8=45×0.8=4
E[X1+⋯+Xn]=E[X1]+⋯+E[Xn]E[X1+⋯+Xn]=E[X1]+⋯+E[Xn].
Simplify(E∪F)(E∪Fc)(E∪F)(E∪Fc).
Venn Diagrams
EE
Distributive Law:E∩(F∪Fc)=E∩S=EE∩(F∪Fc)=E∩S=E.