Week 9: Flashcards
What are the two distinct levels of analysis:
- A: focus on state/actors - e.g. which actors are most powerful? Who can decide to go to war/enforce sanctions?
- B: focus on order/system - character of the international order and its dominant structures, institutions and norms. Structure within which actors operate.
International system in historical perspective - WW2:
- multiple centres of power - e.g., concert of Europe.
- competing liberal, communist, fascist orders, e.g., Italy.
- Liberal International Order emerged due to this. Probably wouldn’t have it had Germany or Soviet Union won the war.
International system in historical perspective - Cold War:
- bipolar - two main centres of power (US and Soviet Union).
- competing capitalist democratic west vs authoritarian east (plus 3rd world non-aligned countries).
International system in historical perspective - post-cold War:
- Krauthammer 1990 ‘unipolar moment’ - US won war and Soviet Union fell apart.
- pre-eminent power in the international system.
- Fukuyama 1989 - ‘end of history: Triumph of democratic capitalist model - no ideological alternative left.
1990s - 2000s: Triumph of the West and Liberal Order - military and security:
- unrivalled US military power (‘superpower’). By 2009 the Warsaw Pact had disintegrated.
- NATO enlargement - Ukraine and Georgia asking to join.
- 9/11, War on Terror.
- expansion of US military spending and presence abroad - global wars by the US (Iraq and Afghanistan) - growing number of bases being built, especially in ME and Central Asia.
1990s - 2000s: Triumph of the West and Liberal Order - economic power:
- US largest world economy - 25% of the global GDP.
- US allies all the largest economies - G7 countries.
Late 2000s - decline of Western power:
- US and allies bogged down in two wars (Afghanistan and Iraq) following 9/11.
- rampant anti-Americanism - following protests in Iraq (2003) but also countries like Germany.
- 2008 Financial crisis - biggest financial crisis in US and Europe since Great Depression in 1930s. Western neoliberal economic model in crisis - states had to rescue banks.
- emerging economies continued growing, only marginally hit by financial crisis.
- BRICS becoming more assertive in international forums - e.g., UN conference in Copenhagen in 2009. China and India blocked Western proposals.
Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): economy arguments:
- US and Europe in crisis/economic rise of BRICS.
- deep structural shift from West to East.
Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): economy - US and Europe in crisis/economic rise of BRICS:
- O’Neill coins BRICS - GDPs growing at an exponential rate.
- Growth South-South Trade - China surpasses US as main trading partner for many countries.
- China, India and Brazil have become aid donors, rather than recipients.
Power shift debate - West declining: economy (DECLINISTS) - deep structural shift from West to East:
- China surpasses Japan as 2nd largest economy (2010/11).
- China to surpass US by 2050 (if not before). Already has in total GDP but not per capita.
- China largest foreign holder of US treasury securities/bonds.
- centre of economic power will include China, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore.
Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): military and security examples:
- USA
- China
- Russia
- India
Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): military and security - USA:
- failures in Iraq and Afghanistan.
- ‘imperial stretch’ - similar situation happened to the Roman Empire due to being stretched too thinly and not being able to defend borders.
Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): military and security - China:
- investing and modernising military.
- assertiveness in East and South China Sea.
- growing military and commercial (Huawei) tensions with the US.
Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): military and security - Russia:
- Ukraine (2014 and 2022) challenges EU and NATO expansion.
- Syria (2015) challenges US hegemony in Middle East - Russia backed Assad regime.
- Georgia/Abkhazia (2008) challenges NATO expansion.
Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): military and security - India:
- India-US Nuclear Deal (2006).
- became Nuclear power outside NPT.
Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): economy arguments:
- West in relative but not absolute economic decline.
- BRICS still developing countries.
- Economic competitions and wars.
Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): economy - West in relative but not absolute economic decline:
- western economic crisis more cyclical than permanent.
- US still the largest and most dynamic economy in the world - 22% of global economy.
- transatlantic economy accounts for roughly 50% of the global GDP.
- structural economic power (Finchtner) - dollar still world currency reserve and world financed centre in NY and London.
Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): economy - BRICS still developing countries:
- per capita GDP remains low.
- China and Brazil slowing down and hobbled by domestic political problems.
- Russia economically fragile, worsened by war.
Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): economy - Economic competition and war:
- West/US VS Russia/China trade wars and sanctions.
Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): military and diplomacy arguments:
- power is not just about economics.
- ‘structured/networked’ power.
- US still outspends its rivals on defence.
- regional states balancing China and Russia.
Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): military and diplomacy - power is not just about economics:
- US in relative economic decline since WW2.
- Japan and Germany most powerful economically but not ideologically or militarily.
- Soviet Union economically weak, bur militarily and ideologically powerful.
- doesn’t tell full story.
Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): military and diplomacy - ‘structured/networked’ power:
- US has 60 alliances, Russia 8 and China 1 (North Korea).
- NATO enlargement - Finland and Sweden (2022).
- new multilateralism: Summit of Democracy, AUKUS, QUAD.
Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): military and diplomacy - regional states balancing China and Russia:
- Eastern European and many Asian states seek US security guarantee.
Future of the Liberal Order (DECLINISTS) - global politics and economics:
- democratic backsliding around the world - rise of populism (Russia and China) and the West (Trump and Jan 6th).
- alternative models emerging - e.g., authoritarian capitalism and civilisational values (Bettiza and Lewis).
Future of the Liberal Order (DECLINISTS) - global and regional governance arguments:
- problems with western regional institutions.
- (re)emerging powers blocking Western interests in GG institutions.
- fragmentation of GG and new regional institutions and rules.
- diluting western voice in GG institutions.
Future of the Liberal Order (DECLINISTS) - global and regional governance arguments - problems with western institutions:
- Brexit and EU disintegration.
- NATO enlargement failure.
Future of the Liberal Order (DECLINISTS) - global and regional governance arguments - re-emerging powers blocking Western interests in GG institutions:
- Rest wants to liberalise agriculture, west wants to liberalise services it has lots of and capital.
- UNGA vote on Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022.
- Russia has positioned itself as voice of anti-Western imperialism - many Global South countries siding with Russia.
Future of the Liberal Order (SCEPTICS) - global politics and economics arguments:
- democracy more appealing than others
- no ‘new’ cold war
Future of the Liberal Order (SCEPTICS) - global politics and economics - democracy more appealing than others:
- Arab Spring, Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong, Alexei Navalny in Russia.
- many rising powers are democracies - e.g., Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and India.
- democracy still remains, if not favoured approach.
Future of the Liberal Order (SCEPTICS) - global politics and economics - no ‘new’ cold war:
- no ideological confrontation looming.
- no alternatives to capitalism but a world of multiple capitalism = less ideological polarisation.
- scepticism over China’s Road Belt Initative.
Future of the Liberal Order (SCEPTICS) - global and regional governance:
- GG continuation and reform, rather than revolution and decay
- how ‘alternative’ are alternative regional institutions.
- how coherent are BRICS and how effective are their regional institutions.
Future of the Liberal Order (SCEPTICS) - global and regional governance - GG continuation and reform, rather than revolution and decay:
- West and BRICS benefit alike from liberal order and have little incentives to scrap it - e.g., Xi Jinping speech at WEF (Davos 2017).
- don’t want to scrap it but want a bigger voice.
Theories and theoretical perspectives:
- declinists
- sceptics
declinists:
- mostly realists, post-colonial perspectives, non-western perspectives.
- focus on relative decline/rise.
- focus on economic ad military as key sources of power.
- decline of western power and wester-centred liberal order:
- liberal international order dependent on western power - not desirable to rest.
*PC/non-western - less hegemonic and western-centric international system.
Sceptics:
- mostly liberals, institutionalists, certain critical perspectives.
- focus on absolute decline/rise.
- economic and military power important but more important how they are translated into international influence - e.g., alliances, networks, etc.
- LIO relatively independent from western power and desirable to the rest.
- LIO continues but mostly reformed:
- either more inclusive of non-western norms and interests (at best) OR
- more bounded focused on democracies vs autocracies (at worst).
