Week 9: Flashcards

1
Q

What are the two distinct levels of analysis:

A
  • A: focus on state/actors - e.g. which actors are most powerful? Who can decide to go to war/enforce sanctions?
  • B: focus on order/system - character of the international order and its dominant structures, institutions and norms. Structure within which actors operate.
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2
Q

International system in historical perspective - WW2:

A
  • multiple centres of power - e.g., concert of Europe.
  • competing liberal, communist, fascist orders, e.g., Italy.
  • Liberal International Order emerged due to this. Probably wouldn’t have it had Germany or Soviet Union won the war.
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3
Q

International system in historical perspective - Cold War:

A
  • bipolar - two main centres of power (US and Soviet Union).
  • competing capitalist democratic west vs authoritarian east (plus 3rd world non-aligned countries).
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4
Q

International system in historical perspective - post-cold War:

A
  • Krauthammer 1990 ‘unipolar moment’ - US won war and Soviet Union fell apart.
  • pre-eminent power in the international system.
  • Fukuyama 1989 - ‘end of history: Triumph of democratic capitalist model - no ideological alternative left.
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5
Q

1990s - 2000s: Triumph of the West and Liberal Order - military and security:

A
  • unrivalled US military power (‘superpower’). By 2009 the Warsaw Pact had disintegrated.
  • NATO enlargement - Ukraine and Georgia asking to join.
  • 9/11, War on Terror.
  • expansion of US military spending and presence abroad - global wars by the US (Iraq and Afghanistan) - growing number of bases being built, especially in ME and Central Asia.
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6
Q

1990s - 2000s: Triumph of the West and Liberal Order - economic power:

A
  • US largest world economy - 25% of the global GDP.
  • US allies all the largest economies - G7 countries.
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7
Q

Late 2000s - decline of Western power:

A
  • US and allies bogged down in two wars (Afghanistan and Iraq) following 9/11.
  • rampant anti-Americanism - following protests in Iraq (2003) but also countries like Germany.
  • 2008 Financial crisis - biggest financial crisis in US and Europe since Great Depression in 1930s. Western neoliberal economic model in crisis - states had to rescue banks.
  • emerging economies continued growing, only marginally hit by financial crisis.
  • BRICS becoming more assertive in international forums - e.g., UN conference in Copenhagen in 2009. China and India blocked Western proposals.
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8
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): economy arguments:

A
  • US and Europe in crisis/economic rise of BRICS.
  • deep structural shift from West to East.
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9
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): economy - US and Europe in crisis/economic rise of BRICS:

A
  • O’Neill coins BRICS - GDPs growing at an exponential rate.
  • Growth South-South Trade - China surpasses US as main trading partner for many countries.
  • China, India and Brazil have become aid donors, rather than recipients.
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10
Q

Power shift debate - West declining: economy (DECLINISTS) - deep structural shift from West to East:

A
  • China surpasses Japan as 2nd largest economy (2010/11).
  • China to surpass US by 2050 (if not before). Already has in total GDP but not per capita.
  • China largest foreign holder of US treasury securities/bonds.
  • centre of economic power will include China, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore.
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11
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): military and security examples:

A
  • USA
  • China
  • Russia
  • India
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12
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): military and security - USA:

A
  • failures in Iraq and Afghanistan.
  • ‘imperial stretch’ - similar situation happened to the Roman Empire due to being stretched too thinly and not being able to defend borders.
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13
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): military and security - China:

A
  • investing and modernising military.
  • assertiveness in East and South China Sea.
  • growing military and commercial (Huawei) tensions with the US.
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14
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): military and security - Russia:

A
  • Ukraine (2014 and 2022) challenges EU and NATO expansion.
  • Syria (2015) challenges US hegemony in Middle East - Russia backed Assad regime.
  • Georgia/Abkhazia (2008) challenges NATO expansion.
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15
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (DECLINISTS): military and security - India:

A
  • India-US Nuclear Deal (2006).
  • became Nuclear power outside NPT.
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16
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): economy arguments:

A
  • West in relative but not absolute economic decline.
  • BRICS still developing countries.
  • Economic competitions and wars.
17
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): economy - West in relative but not absolute economic decline:

A
  • western economic crisis more cyclical than permanent.
  • US still the largest and most dynamic economy in the world - 22% of global economy.
  • transatlantic economy accounts for roughly 50% of the global GDP.
  • structural economic power (Finchtner) - dollar still world currency reserve and world financed centre in NY and London.
18
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): economy - BRICS still developing countries:

A
  • per capita GDP remains low.
  • China and Brazil slowing down and hobbled by domestic political problems.
  • Russia economically fragile, worsened by war.
19
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): economy - Economic competition and war:

A
  • West/US VS Russia/China trade wars and sanctions.
20
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): military and diplomacy arguments:

A
  • power is not just about economics.
  • ‘structured/networked’ power.
  • US still outspends its rivals on defence.
  • regional states balancing China and Russia.
21
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): military and diplomacy - power is not just about economics:

A
  • US in relative economic decline since WW2.
  • Japan and Germany most powerful economically but not ideologically or militarily.
  • Soviet Union economically weak, bur militarily and ideologically powerful.
  • doesn’t tell full story.
22
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): military and diplomacy - ‘structured/networked’ power:

A
  • US has 60 alliances, Russia 8 and China 1 (North Korea).
  • NATO enlargement - Finland and Sweden (2022).
  • new multilateralism: Summit of Democracy, AUKUS, QUAD.
23
Q

Power shift debate - West declining (SCEPTICS): military and diplomacy - regional states balancing China and Russia:

A
  • Eastern European and many Asian states seek US security guarantee.
24
Q

Future of the Liberal Order (DECLINISTS) - global politics and economics:

A
  • democratic backsliding around the world - rise of populism (Russia and China) and the West (Trump and Jan 6th).
  • alternative models emerging - e.g., authoritarian capitalism and civilisational values (Bettiza and Lewis).
25
Q

Future of the Liberal Order (DECLINISTS) - global and regional governance arguments:

A
  • problems with western regional institutions.
  • (re)emerging powers blocking Western interests in GG institutions.
  • fragmentation of GG and new regional institutions and rules.
  • diluting western voice in GG institutions.
26
Q

Future of the Liberal Order (DECLINISTS) - global and regional governance arguments - problems with western institutions:

A
  • Brexit and EU disintegration.
  • NATO enlargement failure.
27
Q

Future of the Liberal Order (DECLINISTS) - global and regional governance arguments - re-emerging powers blocking Western interests in GG institutions:

A
  • Rest wants to liberalise agriculture, west wants to liberalise services it has lots of and capital.
  • UNGA vote on Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022.
  • Russia has positioned itself as voice of anti-Western imperialism - many Global South countries siding with Russia.
28
Q

Future of the Liberal Order (SCEPTICS) - global politics and economics arguments:

A
  • democracy more appealing than others
  • no ‘new’ cold war
29
Q

Future of the Liberal Order (SCEPTICS) - global politics and economics - democracy more appealing than others:

A
  • Arab Spring, Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong, Alexei Navalny in Russia.
  • many rising powers are democracies - e.g., Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and India.
  • democracy still remains, if not favoured approach.
30
Q

Future of the Liberal Order (SCEPTICS) - global politics and economics - no ‘new’ cold war:

A
  • no ideological confrontation looming.
  • no alternatives to capitalism but a world of multiple capitalism = less ideological polarisation.
  • scepticism over China’s Road Belt Initative.
31
Q

Future of the Liberal Order (SCEPTICS) - global and regional governance:

A
  • GG continuation and reform, rather than revolution and decay
  • how ‘alternative’ are alternative regional institutions.
  • how coherent are BRICS and how effective are their regional institutions.
32
Q

Future of the Liberal Order (SCEPTICS) - global and regional governance - GG continuation and reform, rather than revolution and decay:

A
  • West and BRICS benefit alike from liberal order and have little incentives to scrap it - e.g., Xi Jinping speech at WEF (Davos 2017).
  • don’t want to scrap it but want a bigger voice.
33
Q

Theories and theoretical perspectives:

A
  • declinists
  • sceptics
34
Q

declinists:

A
  • mostly realists, post-colonial perspectives, non-western perspectives.
  • focus on relative decline/rise.
  • focus on economic ad military as key sources of power.
  • decline of western power and wester-centred liberal order:
  • liberal international order dependent on western power - not desirable to rest.
    *PC/non-western - less hegemonic and western-centric international system.
35
Q

Sceptics:

A
  • mostly liberals, institutionalists, certain critical perspectives.
  • focus on absolute decline/rise.
  • economic and military power important but more important how they are translated into international influence - e.g., alliances, networks, etc.
  • LIO relatively independent from western power and desirable to the rest.
  • LIO continues but mostly reformed:
  • either more inclusive of non-western norms and interests (at best) OR
  • more bounded focused on democracies vs autocracies (at worst).