Week 8 Flashcards
MAR 13
Impacts on Humans
- Often connected to impacts on natural ecosystems
- Many aspects of human life, such as food and freshwater availability require healthy ecosystems
- 4 categories in how the environment aids our health: Supporting (biodiversity), Regulating (purify water), Provisioning (wood) and Cultural (Recreation) Ecosystem Services
What does the IPCC say?
- Those who contribute the least GHGs will be most impacted by climate change*
?
→ Darker the color = higher the confidence
Mental Health [PTSD, depression, anxiety, solastalgia = distress caused by environmental change, ecoanxiety]
Impacts on Humans
1 Water scarcity and food production
2 Health and wellbeing
3 Cities, settlements and infrastructure
[the climate changes: increase CO2, rising sea level, more extreme weather, rising temps]
–> Climate Changes causes _____ ______
study -
Extreme Event Attribution =
– Heat and rainfall are areas we are getting much better at attributing
– Extreme events related to heat are easier to study than extremes related to fires, droughts or tornadoes
– Evidence that tropical storms are getting stronger
B/C climate amplifies many of the factors that amplifies severity of storms (sea levels rising - storm surges distance are expanded , warmer air holds more moisture - more precipitation, more energy pumped into storms (more heat available)
– Air pollution - increased Ozone (bad in troposphere) - production of pollution ozone increases with temperature
–> Extreme weather
- 70% of extreme weather events and trends - found to be made more likely or more severe by human-induced CC
[HEAT specifically]
= Science of detecting whether manmade global warming was one of the causes of the event
→ Can tell us whether global warming made an event more likely or more severe (not whether it causes it)
Water Impacts
–> Water Quantity Impacts
- Reduced…
- Water stress by country…
–> Water Quality Impacts
Reduced water quality due to many interacting factors
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–>
- renewable surface water and groundwater resources in most dry subtropical regions
- Aus, USA, Asia and northern africa/south africa at most risk
–>
- Increased water temp (increased bacteria)
- Increased sediment, nutrient and pollutant loading from heavy rainfall
- Saltwater intrusion (coastal aquifers) - low lying countries - sea waters move in at ground water level
Increased pathogens
[all caused by precip, temp or sea level]
The Lancet - “health at the mercy of fossil fuels”
Food Supply impacts according to 2021 Lancet Report
–>
“Rising temperatures shorten the time taken for crops to reach maturity (ie, reduced crop growth duration), thereby leading to reduced seed yield
potential…a reduction in crop growth duration can be considered an indicator of future crop yield reductions
–> Reduced seed yield - which we want the seed = reduction in crop yield
- Winter wheat - ‘hard’ wheat
- NOT only crops - also livestock and fisheries affected
Subtropic and temperate ocean
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Tropics
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Future Fish Catching Potential
MCP = Max Catch Potential -50% in tropics
MRP = Max Revenue Potential (change in MRP% = -3-/-50 % in tropics)
- Fish can move in response to changing ocean temps
ST - Catch composition slowly changes to included more warm-water species and fewer cool-water species
T - No species with enough temperature preferences to replace those that declined
- Tropical poor nations rely on fish as major food source
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There are countries on this planet that may become uninhabitable - Bangladesh, Pakistan
The past 4 decades saw an increase in the number of hours in which temps were too high for safe outdoor exercise
- Increasing intensity & freq of extreme weather events (heatwaves, droughts) can damage crops
- Spread of crop and livestock pests and disease
- Rising Sea levels and sea water intrusion leads to soil salinization
- Increasing ocean temperatures and acidity threatened fish stocks
- Reduced labour capacity (heatwaves & other extreme events)
***Potential hours of labour lost due to exposure to heat (470 billion potential labour hours lost)
*** # of heatwave days are increasing
2 populations of ppl very susceptible (very young and very old)
Heat-related deaths is increasing
Human Development Index:
—> The past four decades saw an increase in the number of hours in which temps were too high for safe outdoor exercise, with people in the low Human Development Index country group having an average loss of 3.7 h of safe exercise per day in 2020
: Income, Education, Longevity - use these 3 factors to calc index
Change in climate suitability for infectious diseases
- Dengue Fever:
- Malaria:
Climate Change and Vector-Bourne disease (VBD)
- 3 elements:
1
2
3
–> Changes in
- DF: Contagiousness and transmissibility increasing
- Malaria: Very high HDI not nearly as affected as low HDI
1 Pathogens: parasites, viruses, bacteria
2 Vectors: Mosquitos, flies, ticks
3 Hosts: Humans, livestock, other animals
–> Changes in temp and precip affect environment of VBD
Impacts on Infrastructure
–> Impacts on…
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Impacts on Electricity
EX:
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Transmission/Distribution:
–> …power transmission, transportation, storm water management, buildings etc
- Damage to roads, rails, bridges, subway systems, storm water management systems, buildings..
– Particularly problematic for coastal infrastructure
EX: Thermal power plants (burning something to generate electricity) less efficient as air temp increases - b/c they require air/water to be cooler to cool the process entirely [generation]
- Solar and wind won’t be impacted
- Hydropower affected by precipitation, snow melting etc [generation]
:[Transmission/Distribution] Thermal expansion of transmission and distribution power lines causes line sag; also impacts of extreme weather
MAR 15
Impacts on Transportation
–> Extreme temps (more direct)
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–> Extreme weather and flooding (indirect)
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Impacts on Tourism
- Snow tourism (lack of snow)
- Forest and lake tourism (drought, pest infestations, fire)
- Beach and coastal tourism (sea-level rise, extreme storms, coral bleaching)
The Tourism Irony
→ Not only is tourism being attacked by CC but the climate footprint of global tourism is huge [trying to offset with sustainable fuel and better plane design]
Get more efficient then we demand more (like efficient car - oh we can get an SUV cause better fuel efficiency we can get a bigger car)
–>
- directly impact roads and railways
- railway buckling / road distress
- impacts on air travel [lift is hard to achieve as when the air is scorching hot - b/c hot air is thinner than cold air]
–> Impacts roads, railways, subway stations etc
What’s in Store for Canada?
Natural Resources
→ Mining
- Extreme weather and warming north
- Impact on:
→ Forestry
- Increases in:
- Impact on:
[most areas are expected to experiences at least a 2-fold increase in annual area burned and 1.5 fold increase in the number of large fires by the end of the 21st century]
Main area affect is Boreal forests in CAN
Mountain Pine Beetle
- pine tree relationship with beetle has worked ok in past
[Trees have natural defence mechanism =
Massive outbreak in BC starting in 2001
Beetle killed over 50% of commercially important pine trees
TWO climate problems:
1
2
–> M
- Impact on built and transportation infrastructure (eg. winter roads)
–> F
- Increases in: Fire, pests/diseases, drought and other extreme weather
- Impact on: forest productivity (socio-economic impacts)
= Pitch Tube - resin production acts as tree defence system - works if beetle numbers are low and trees are healthy]
1 Beetle - warmer winters don’t kill them off = larger beetle population
2 Trees - summer drought leads to weaker trees - (high heat, less precipitation)
- Also artificial fire suppression leads to older trees
FOOD
Climate Change Impacts:
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3 Examples - remember 1?
EX: Maple Syrup
CAN produces over 70% of the world’s production (Quebec accounted for ~90% of this production)
CC challenges:
Sap season is getting shorter
Optimal temp for the maple sugaring season are -5 at night and +5 days
Sugar Maple may have trouble expanding their range (seed predation, soil quality etc)
EX: Ice Wine
Narrow window of temperatures
Temps btw -8 and -14
EX: Pacific Salmon
Warming water - cause salmon to burn energy faster & increasing bacterial/fungal infections
[Are anadromous - live in ocean but swim up freshwater to spawn]
May not be reproducing due to exhortation and infection
Water (rivers etc) require snow melt to fill rivers - may not be as full
- Crop and animal productivity
- Pollinator health
- Water Supply and quality
- Fish Stocks
- Pests and disease
Main CC impacts on health across CAN
x 7 -
EX: Climate Sensitive Diseases
→ Lyme Disease (an infectious disease caused by a bacteria carried by ticks)
[Ixodes scapularis - particular species of tick]
Huge expansion into the 2050s & 2080s
- BC = wildfire = asthma and evacuation
- Alberta - flood & droughts
- Allergies
- Tick borne disease
- Heat related illness
- Relocation and stress from coastal erosion
- Displacement
Impacts to Water:
–> Warming water:
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–> Heavy precipitation
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–> Fluctuating lake levels
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–>
- more freq alage blooms, increased bacteria level, impacts on fish diversity
–>
- increased flooding, overloading of water treatment infrastructure (sewer overflows)
–>
- Shipping, power generation, shorelines
Impacts on the North (the cryosphere)
–> Impacts on Indigenous People (Inuit)
- Culture, health and well-being
- Personal safety, food and water security and mental health
- Traditional Activities
–> Impacts on the Environment
Melting permafrost
= permanently frozen ground for 2+ years - located on land or under oceans
- Permafrost has sequestered huge amounts of carbon
2 kinds of problems:
1
2
** EXAM Q on feedback - memorize the 2 important positive feedbacks related to the melting of the cryosphere **
1
2
1 - in the north everything is built on permafrost (buildings)- Impacts to road/transportation
2 - carbon dioxide gases emitted & methane (if anaerobic)
[1] Global warming → melts ice and snow → more sunlight absorbed by ice free ocean and land → Further global warming
[2] Global warming → Permafrost melts and decomposes → Methane and CO2 released (GHGs) → Further Global Warming
