Week 4: Thinking Fast & Slow Flashcards
Explain how firefighters utilise recognition primed decision strategy in time pressured & uncertain situations and highlight the element(s) of progressive deepening?
Firefighters identify a singular option based on their repertoire of previously experienced patterns. Following this, they mentally stimulate whether the option is viable; if appropriate, its implemented; if shortcomings exist, the option is modified; if not easily modifiable, the next plausible option is considered.
The mental stimulation elements is similar to progressive deepening (but not exactly).
Explain progressive deepening
Progressive deepening is a decision making strategy that involves systematic evaluation of courses of actions by considering scenarios of possible outcomes and consequences, reiterating and modifying decisions with new information/insight.
Deepening one’s understanding by mental stimulation
What is the central goal of NDM?
To demystify intution by identifying cues experts use to make decisions
What is CTA?
Cognitive Task Analysis; semi-structured interview technique to elicit cues & contextual considerations which influence judgement & decision, hoping to draw inferences about judgement & decision process
What attitude does the Heuristic and Biases approach hold towards experts. Where is this most likely derived from?
Favours a skeptical attitude towards expertise and expert judgement. This is from Meehl’s 1954 finding of clinicians uncritical reliance of intuition and neglect towards statistical reasoning - clinicians were observed to have inferior judgement due to neglect of base rate outcomes.
What is the bootstrapping effect and what does this illustrate of individual’s judgements?
The bootstrapping effect is a statistical model based on an accumulation of individual’s predictions, using multiple regression. Bootstrapping effects were found to nearly always be more accurate than judges own estimates. This demonstrates the inconsistency of individuals judgements, with which noise impairs the validity of judgements.
Describe the instance within the article (Kahneman & Klein, 2009) where an example of the illusion of validity was at play, and highlight the specific moment when the illusion of validity was at play.
The article describes an instance where candidates for officer training were unfairly judged by subjective convictions, despite the availability of statistical feedback. The illusion of validity was at play when judgments were made based purely on subjective convictions, which lack predictability, reliability, and accuracy
Describe the stance of both HB and NDM regarding expertise and decision algorithms
HB: Focus is on flaws in human cognition performances and is predisposed to recommend replacing informal judgement by algorithms whereever possible.
NDM: Focus is on marvel of successful expert performance, and trained to explore thinking of experts and seek to learn and pass on secrets. Holds little faith in formal approaches because skeptical about attempts to impose universal structres/rules on decision making.
How does NDM define expertise? What criterions are used to judge?
The elementary criterion for NDM is the history of successful outcomes. The most common way to define an expert is thorugh peer judgement, which requires, 1. consensus, and 2. evidence of consensus reflecting aspects of objective success OR professional is recognised as having the necessary skill & ability to perform at the highest level
E.g., Firefighter X allowing less damage from fire than Firefighter Y
How does HB define expertise in contrast? What criterions are used to judge?
Professionals are defined as experts by comparing the accuracy of their judgement within a given situation to an optimal linear combination of set variables (the available information of the given situation)
Simon’s (1992) definition of skilled intution: … “intution nothing more or less than recognition.” Complete the definition with the remaining elements
