Week 4: the great debate

Question 1

People

Answer 1

Robert Malthus (1766-1834)
- English cleric and scholar (political economy and demography)
- An essay on the principle of population (1798)
- Malthusian grow model P(t) = P 0 ert
- Expected growth of food supply to be arithmetic (i.e. linear, proportional to be cultivated)

19th century
Less common intellectual tradition as the 19th century advanced
- Industrial revolution
- Technological innovations
- Opening of new territories to agriculture
- Increasing international trade
- “it is more likely that one ingenious curious may rather be found out against 4,000,000 than 400 persons .”

Paul Ehrlich
- American ecologist and demographer (born in 1932)
- The population bomb (1968)
○ “the battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate”
- Proposes dramatic solutions for reducing growth rate incl.
○ tax penalties for having children
○ incentives for voluntary sterilization - creation of Dept. of Population and Environment
- Response
○ best selling book
○ scenarios did not become reality - criticized for alarmist tone and inaccurate predictions

Meadows et al (1972)
- Commissioned by the club of Rome (global think tank)
- Author team
○ Donella meadows (environmental scientist)
○ Dennis meadows (systems manager)
○ Jorgen Randers (climate strategy)
○ William Behrens 111 (?)
- World 3: system dynamic model for computer simulation
○ Population
○ Industrial growth
○ Food production
○ Resource
○ Pollution

Question 2

Techno-pessimists

Answer 2

Techno-pessimist
- Demographers/ ecologists
○ Robert mathius
○ Paul erlrich et al
○ Don meadows et al

Question 3

Summary
The great debate refers to the argument between the techno-pessimist and -optimist perspectives on the future.
* Techno-pessimistic–reduced carrying capacity
Limits to growth  on our way to irreparable environ damage and population collapse  take every chance to avoid disaster
* Techno-optimistic–increasing carrying capacity
population growth is the ultimate resource (ingenuity)  market forces and technological advances find solutions  physical resources are finite, but economic growth and resources are unlimited
* Steady state economy–steadily carrying capacity
Permanent growth ecolog. impossible  zero growth econ.

Question 4

Techno-optimist

Answer 4

Techno-optimist
- Neoclassic economists
○ Julian simeon
Simon kuznet