Week 3: Foreign Currency and Exchange, Sept 28 Flashcards
exchange rates
fundamentally the price of one country’s currency in terms of another
-price of most currencies is market driven (ie, the ER at any given time is determined by the supply and demand for that currency)
-the degree to which monetary authorities intervene in the market to manage the value of their currency caries considerably
foreign exchange market functions to
-convert the currency of one country into another
-provide instruments to hedge exposure to foreign exchange risk
foreign exchange risk
arises as a result of currency appreciations and depreciations (changes in exchange rate)
direct exchange rate
the price of the foreign currency in terms of the home currency
-eg, $1 USD costs $1.34 cad
indirect exchange rate
price of home currency in terms of foreign currency
-eg, $1CAD costs $0.72 USD
spot exchange rate
ER on a given day
forward exchange rate
ER for some specified point in the future
If 1USD = 1.10CAD
buying 70USD, how much canadian
=70usd x 1.10cad/1usd
=77cad
if 1usd = 1.10cad
selling 86cad, how much usd
=86cad x 1usd/1.10cad
=78usd
what determined the supply and demand of a currency? choose answer
-demand for the Canadian dollar is derived from foreigners desire to acquire Canadian goods, services, and assets (anything purchased in CAD)
OR
-supply of CAD is driven by the desire of Canadians to acquire foreign goods, services, and assets
forex market
-global network of banks, brokers, foreign exchange dealers
-businesses and individuals use forex market to
–convert payables/receivable form one currency to another
–investment opportunities
–currency speculation
-govts also use the forex market
forex: consumption
businesses and individuals buy and sell currency as a result of transactions for goods or services
forex: investment
search for the highest return
forex: arbitrage
attempts to exploit small differences in the price of a currency between markets
forex: speculation
deliberate assumption of exchange rate risk in hopes of correctly predicting changes in the value of a currency
what determines the value of a currency in the long run
supply and demand
-the long run Econ health of an economy and its assets (exports, firms, real estate, bonds, stocks) - “fundamentals”
-the LR stability of an economy
-possibly purchasing power parity (PPP)
Law of one price
if the price of a good differs between two markets, arbitrage will continue until the price of the good is identical in both markets
-this excludes transaction costs, transport costs, taxes etc, and only applies to tradables
purchasing power parity (PPP)
-exchange rates are determined by the relative prices of a similar basket of goods
-this occurs bc the process of buying good in the cheap market and reselling affects the demand, and thus, the price of the foreign currency
fundamentals
-consumer spending
-unemployment rate
-productivity indices
-GDP
-inflation rate
-interest rate
investor psychology and bandwagon effects
-expectations can be self fulfilling prophecies
-when one trader moves, others often follow
-psychology and bandwagon effects may be one of the largest determinants of exchange rates in the short run
monetary authorities
monetary authorities step in to influence the value of an exchange rate by intervening in the market
-shifting either the supply or demand curves for their currency to change the price
managerial considerations of forex rates
-currency convertibility
-forex risk
–transaction exposure
–translation exposure
–economic exposure
forex risk exposure: currency depreciation
exporters
domestic firms
importers and consumers
foreign debt and assets
-exporters tend to be better as their products are less expensive in foreign currency
-domestic firms competing w imports tend to be better off bc competing imports are relatively more expensive in domestic currency
-importers and consumers tend to be worse off as imported products are more expensive in domestic currency
-foreign debt becomes more expensive but foreign assets become more valuable
-the larger, water and more unexpected the depreciation, the greater the turmoil associated