Week 3 Flashcards
Why is popular mobilization a threat to economic elites?
Because it may lead to increased distribution and therefore the elites lose power
What is the “agents of economic elites” perspective on MO coup?
The MO seize power if popular mobilisation becomes a threat to the economic elites or politicians propose it
What is the “Personal interests of MO” theory of military coups?
MO coup because they want to gain power, promotions or due to fear of dismissal
Which of the traditional theories as to why MO coup is supported by empirical evidence? How?
The “personal interests” theory is supported. This is evidenced as military dissatisfaction (measured through hetero-genity and military power) increases likelihood of military coup
What are the two types of coups?
- Regime initiating ; There is a change of regime and leader is replaced by MO
- Leader Shuffling ; Leader changes to a different MO
What can be used to increase the validity of a model for when coups occur?
Structural Aspects, Organisation of Seizure group and, ethnic fractionalisation
What are the two political mechanisms that Svolik uses to develop a theory of when coups occur?
- Moral Hazards ; The more indispensable the military in a regime, the more power they can claim
- Bargaining between Military and Government ; Outcome of bargaining depends on mass threat and military pivotal
What does Svolik’s theory of military coups state?
Coups occur when there is “Brinkman Bargaining” due to escalation. This bargaining is when the military is essential to regime control, but does not have as much control as it wants
Why does brinkmanship occur?
The military has incentive to increase it’s demands of power and resources, and the Regime has an incentive to deny this in order to stay in power
How does Svolik show that his theory of Military Coups is correct? And what does the data show?
Using data of economic inequality as a proxy for mass threat. And Leader entry and exit to show changing of power. Svolik finds that leader exit is highest during middling economic inequality. This indicates that his theory is correct
