Week 2 Flashcards
how can maintaining databases on disaster events be difficult?
disasters can co-occur (hurricanes cause floods, earthquakes cause landslide, etc.)
mortality can be difficult to count (famine, epidemics)
a general lack of census taking (in developing countries)
what requirements must an event meet to officially be qualified as a “disaster”? exceptions?
according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED):
— 10 or more deaths per event
— 100 or more persons affected (injured, homeless, etc.)
— government declaration of disaster OR
— plea for international assistance
EXCEPTIONS
—- for droughts or famines, at least 2000 persons affected
—- for technological disasters, 5 or more deaths per event
how is statistical data reported?
in absolute terms
number of casualties, billions of dollars in damages, etc.
the impact of losses is felt differently from one place to the next
—- so statistics must be placed in a community/regional context
e.g. 10 fishers lost in a remote village of 200 people versus 10 factory workers in a city of 200,000
—- remote village would experience a bigger impact
how is media coverage on disasters?
the media tends to concentrate on:
human interest
visual impact
events prioritized according to a North American perspective (less coverage on other countries)
describe how impacts vary greatly by disaster type
earthquakes tend to cause more deaths than tornadoes
floods affect more people (homelessness) than most disasters but cause fewer deaths
droughts mainly cause economic losses (agriculture) in developed countries, but can lead to famine in developing countries
technological disasters are more likely to occur in developed countries
increased property damage, economic losses, persons injured, deaths
BUT… economic losses have increased as a faster rate than deaths (impacts have not increased in equal proportions)
describe the Haiti earthquake
M7.0 earthquake in 2010
one of the worst natural disasters in modern history with a death toll over 160,000
epicentre was close the capital city, most buildings in the city were destroyed
the earthquake occurred along a transform fault
the destruction was enhanced by poor construction materials and a lack of building codes
the earthquake caused many landslides, affecting slums in the hillsides surrounding the city
the presidential palace and prison collapsed, allowing 4000 inmates to escape
unlike Dominican Republic (with which it shares an island), Haiti’s land is barren due to clean-cutting, unsustainable deforestation which was meant to boost their economy –> led to soil erosion
what are the reasons for increases in impacts?
land pressure
— approximately 1 billion people live on degraded land
— poverty and lack of land availability leads to unsustainable farming practices
e.g. deforestation, soil erosion, clearing mangroves for monoculture
— mangroves can protect land against storm surges or flooding
urbanization
— around the world, people are increasingly moving from rural areas to urban areas
— slums and squatter settlements are rapidly growing in developing countries
what makes up a location’s vulnerability to disasters?
resiliency and reliability
resiliency
— the rate of recovery from the occurrence of an event
reliability
— the frequency with which protective devices against disasters can withstand the disaster
both resiliency and reliability tend to be lower in developing countries
what is risk assessment?
involves estimating the likelihood that a particular event will harm human health
hazard identification, probability of risk, consequence of risk
what is risk management?
involves deciding whether or how to reduce a particular risk and at what cost
comparative risk analysis (compared to other risks),
risk reduction (how much should it be reduced),
risk reduction strategy (how will it be reduced),
financial commitment (how much money should be spent?)
what are the data issues with risk assessments?
event data
— it is the best to have at least 100 years of data
— the amount of data is not available for several hazards (high-magnitude earthquakes, nuclear accidents, etc.)
economic loss data
— this is often less available than event data
— there are many currencies worldwide; values must constantly be adjusted for inflation
how is statistical analysis calculated?
FOR RISK!
R = P x L
risk = probability (of hazard occurrence) x loss (economic, health, etc.)
when are risk analysis event trees used?
may be used when the event database is inadequate (too small)
the chain of events leading to a disaster must be known
and
probability within the chain must be calculable
what makes up the overall reliability of a technological system? (formula)
system reliability = technological reliability x human reliability
human reliability is usually lower than technology reliability and is difficult to predict
why is poverty the greatest risk factor leading to a reduction in life expectancy? what are the indirect benefits of reducing povery?
poverty is linked to…
— malnutrition
— increased susceptibility to fatal diseases
— lack of access to healthcare
— contaminated water supplies
indirect benefits of reducing poverty
— stimulates economic development
— reduces environmental degradation
— improves human rights
describe risk perception
risks are generally not well perceived by people
many people are not concerned with high-risk activities that are done voluntarily
e.g.
—- smoking (1 premature death per 2 participants)
—- motorcycling (1 per 60)
—- driving a car (1 per 4200)
but Nile Virus (1 per 1 million)
what are the factors influencing risk perception?
risks from hazards are more accepted by people if the risks are perceived to
— be voluntary vs imposed
— be under our control vs controlled by others
— have clear benefits vs little or no benefit
— be natural vs anthropogenic
— be statistical vs catastrophic
— be familiar vs exotic
— affect adults vs children
how can we improve our risk perceptions (or become better at perceiving risks)?
carefully evaluate what the media presents
compare risks (the question is not “is it safe” but rather “how risky it is compared to other risks?”)
concentrate on the most serious risks to your own health and don’t worry about risks over which you have no control
describe the changing nature of risks
there has been a shift in risks over the last few generations
shift from infectious diseases towards chronic degenerative diseases
accidents shift from being more common in the workplace to rare due to improved
death rates from natural disasters are generally lower than they were in the past in developed countries
and as technology has advanced, it has introduced new hazard threats
e.g. nuclear power plants, chemical spills, pesticides, ozone depletion, acid precipitation
increased role of government in risk assessment and risk management
—- there are departments specifically devoted to disaster relief, traffic safety, public health, etc.
increased involvement of laypeople in risk management decisions
as countries transition from developing to developed, there are increased expectations on their government from the public
