week 11 Flashcards

1
Q

what are credit derivatives

A

•A credit derivative is a contract where the payoff depends on the credit worthiness of one or more commercial or sovereign entities.

Their purpose is to allow credit risks to be traded and managed in much the same way as market risks

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2
Q

•Credit Default Swaps (CDS)

A

–A contract that provides insurance against the risk of default by a particular company.

–Reference company

•The company which may be at risk of default.

–Credit event

•When default occurs.

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3
Q

•Credit Default Swaps (CDS)

what does the buyer obtain?

A
  • The buyer of this type of insurance obtains the right to sell a particular bond issued by the company for its par value when a credit event (default) occurs.
  • Reference obligation

–The bond that is issued.

•Notional principal

–The total par value of the bond that can be sold.

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4
Q

•Credit Default Swaps (CDS)

what does the buyer obtain?

A
  • The buyer of this type of insurance obtains the right to sell a particular bond issued by the company for its par value when a credit event (default) occurs.
  • Reference obligation

–The bond that is issued.

•Notional principal

–The total par value of the bond that can be sold.

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5
Q

when may you use a CDS

A

–You buy a bond off a particular company.

–In return for buying that bond, you expect to be paid coupons on the bond, and the face value of the bond at maturity.

–You fear that the company may default on the payment of those coupons, or the payment of the face value of the bond.

–Hence, you take out a CDS.

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6
Q

Mechanics of CDS

What do you get in return?

A

–In return for buying this CDS, you must make periodic payments to the seller of the CDS until the end of the life of the CDS, or until a credit event occurs (default by the company that issued you the bond).

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7
Q

Mechanics of CDS

what happens when the credit event occurs?

A

–If a credit event occurs, the party that sold you the CDS, must settle the swap either by physical delivery or in cash.

–You must pay any interest that has accrued up to the date of the credit even.

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8
Q

Mechanics of CDS

what happens when the credit event occurs and the terms require physical delivery?

A

–If the terms of the swap require physical delivery, then you (the swap buyer) deliver the bond (originally issued by the company which has defaulted) to the seller of the swap in exchange for the par value of the swap.

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9
Q

Mechanics of CDS

what happens when the credit event occurs and there is a cash settlement

A

–When there is cash settlement, a calculation agent polls various dealers to determine the mid-market price (Q), of the reference obligation within a specified number of days after the credit event.

Cash settlement is then (100 – Q)% of the notional principal

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10
Q

total return swap

A

–Involves the return on one asset or group of assets being swapped for the return on another.

–can be useful to diversify credit risk by swapping one type of exposure for another.

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11
Q

•Credit Spread Options

A

provides a payoff when the spread between the yields on two assets exceeds some pre-specified level

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12
Q

example of credit spread option

A

–Consider an investor with an investment in YEN denominated bonds issued by Australia.

–The investor could purchase an option that pays off whenever the yield on the YEN bonds exceeds the yield on Australian Treasury Bills by 600 basis points.

–The payoff could be calculated as the difference between the value of the bond with a 600 basis point spread and the market value of the bond.

–The option limits the investor’s exposure to the underlying sovereign credit.

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13
Q

example of total return swap

A

–Plane Bank is primarily concerned with lending to the airline industry.

–Oil Bank is primarily concerned with lending to the oil industry.

–To reduce its credit risk, Plane Bank could enter into a total return swap, where the return on one of its loans is exchanged for the return on an Oil Bank loan. This would achieve credit risk diversification for both sides (assume both loans are for the same notional principal).

–Alternatively, each bank could separately exchange the return on one of their loans for a LIBOR based return. This would have the effect of passing the credit risk on to someone else.

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14
Q

•Example of a CDS:

–Two parties enter into a five year CDS on March 1, 2000.

–The notional principal is $100 million.

–The buyer of the CDS agrees to pay 90 basis points annually for protection against default by the reference entity.

what happens if the reference entity does not default

A

–If the reference entity does not default, then the buyer of the CDS receives no payoff, and pays $900,000 on March 1 each of the years 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005.

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15
Q

•Example of a CDS:

–Two parties enter into a five year CDS on March 1, 2000.

–The notional principal is $100 million.

–The buyer of the CDS agrees to pay 90 basis points annually for protection against default by the reference entity.

what happens if the reference entity defaults in September 2003 (halfway through 4th yr)

A
  • If the contract specifies physical settlement, the buyer of the CDS has the right to sell $100 million par value of the reference obligation for $100 million.
  • If the contract requires cash settlement, and a poll of dealers value the reference obligation to be $35 per $100 of par value, the cash payoff would be (100-35)x100 million = $65 million.
  • In either case, the buyer of the swap would be required to pay accrued interest of $450,000 from March 1 2003 to September 1 2003.
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16
Q

. Weather Derivatives

A

hedging against adverse weather conditions

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17
Q

. Weather Derivatives

A

hedging against adverse weather conditions

18
Q

Heating degree days (HDD):

Cooling Degree Days

what if the max temp = 68 and min temp = 56?

A
  • Heating degree days (HDD): For each day this is max(0, 65 – A) where A is the average of the highest and lowest temperature in ºF.
  • Cooling Degree Days (CDD): For each day this is max(0, A – 65).
  • A=56.

The daily HDD is then 9 and the daily CDD is 0

19
Q

A day’s HDD is a measure

A day’s CDD is a measure of

A
  • A day’s HDD is a measure of the volume of energy required for heating during the day.
  • A day’s CDD is a measure of the volume of energy required for cooling during the day.
20
Q

Weather derivatives are often used by

A

•energy companies to hedge the volume of energy required for heating or cooling during a particular month.

21
Q

company example of weather derivatives

A

•L.L. Bean catalogue example from the USA.

–L.L. Bean sells winter clothing to consumers via a mail order catalogue distributed to homes.

–If it snows on the day of delivery of the catalogue, then there are usually a high number of orders.

–However, if it is not snowing, or un-seasonally warm, then there are few orders.

–They use weather derivatives to hedge this risk.

22
Q

Energy derivatives are traded in both

A

over-the-counter markets and on exchanges.

23
Q

•OTC Markets with Crude Oil:

A

–Swaps, forward contracts and options are popular derivatives available for managing oil price risk.

–Settlement of these contracts can be in the form of settlement in cash, or physical delivery (the delivery of crude oil).

24
Q

•Exchange Traded Contracts with Crude Oil:

A

–The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) trade a number of oil futures and futures options contracts.

–Settlement of these contracts can be in the form of settlement in cash, or physical delivery (the delivery of crude oil).

25
Q

•Crude Oil:

A

–Crude oil is one of the most important commodities in the world, with daily global demand amounting to over 70 million barrels.

–One of the features of the spot price of crude oil is that it is highly volatile. Over the past year, the volatility of oil has been approximately 30%.

–Indeed, during periods such as the Oil Crisis of the early 1970’s, the volatility of oil has been as high as 300%.

26
Q

•Natural Gas derivatives

A

–traded on both over-the counter markets as well as on exchanges.

–The seller of the gas is usually responsible for moving the gas through pipelines to the specified location.

–NYMEX trades a contract for the delivery of 10,000 million British thermal units of natural gas. If the contract is not closed out, physical delivery is required during the delivery month at a uniform rate.

27
Q

•Electricity:

A

–Demand for electricity is not uniform.

–Demand is usually much greater during the day, than it is at night.

–Likewise, air-conditioners use a large amount of electricity, and hence the demand for electricity is much greater during summer months than winter months. This increased demand leads to higher prices.

–Heat waves have been known to increase the spot price by as much as 1000% for short periods of time.

28
Q

Electricity derivative

what does a typical contract look like

give an example

A

A typical contract allows one side to receive a specified number of megawatt hours for a specified price at a specified location during a particular month.

  • For example, in a 5x8 contract, power is received 5 days a week (Monday to Friday) during the off-peak period (11pm to 7am).
  • In a 5x16 contract, power is received 5 days a week during the on-peak period (7am to 11pm).
29
Q

electricity derivatives

Option contracts have either a

A

–Option contracts have either a daily exercise or a monthly exercise.

30
Q

electricity derivatives

Option contracts can have a daily exercise

describe

A

, the option holder can choose on each day of the month whether to receive electricity at the specified strike price.

31
Q

electricity derivatives

Option contracts can have a monthly exercise

describe

A

•a single decision is made on whether to receive power for the whole month at a specified strike price at the beginning of the month.

32
Q

how are derivatives similar to insurance contracts

A
  • Derivative contracts that are used to hedge a particular type of risk, have similar characteristics to insurance contracts.
  • Both contracts provide some form of protection against an adverse event occurring.

The insurance industry has tried to hedge its exposure to catastrophic (CAT) risks such as earthquakes and typhoons through reinsurance

33
Q

•Reinsurance Example:

–A company has an exposure of $200 million to any potential earthquakes in Newcastle.

–It wants to limit its exposure to $50 million.

If an earthquake causes $100 million in damage in one particular year

A

–The company can enter into an annual reinsurance contract that covers on a pro rata basis, 75% of its exposure.

–the company would only be liable for $25 million.

34
Q

OTC alternative to traditional reinsurance:

A

–CAT bond.

35
Q

–CAT bond.

A
  • A bond that is issued by a subsidiary of an insurance company that pays a higher than normal interest rate.
  • In exchange for the higher interest rate, the holder of the bond agrees to provide an excess-of-cost reinsurance contract.
  • The interest or principal of the CAT bond could be used to meet any claims with may arise from a CAT.
36
Q

CAT bonds generally have

A

–a high probability of an above normal interest rate, with a low probability of a high loss.

37
Q

why are CAT bonds attractive

A

–There are no statistically significant correlations between CAT risks and market returns.

CAT bonds are therefore a useful investment as they have no systematic risk so that their total risk can be completely diversified away in a large portfolio.

38
Q

what does it mean by derivative mishaps

A

huge losses in derivative markets

39
Q

•So what should we be doing to mitigate the chances of these mishaps:

A

–Define risk limits

–Take these risk limits seriously

–Do not think you can out guess the market!

–Diversify!

–Stress test

40
Q

What are some of the lessons for financial institutions

in terms of derivative mishaps

A

–Monitor traders carefully

–Have a clear separation between departments

–Do not blindly trust models

–Be conservative in recognizing inception profits

–Do not sell clients inappropriate products

–Do not ignore liquidity risk

–Do not follow the herd!

–Financing long terms assets with short term debt is a recipe for disaster

–Market transparency is vital!

–Manage incentives

–Never ignore risk management!

41
Q

What are the lessons for non-financial corporations

in terms of derivative mishaps

A

–Make sure you fully understand the trades you are doing

–Make sure a hedger does not become a speculator

Be cautious about making the treasury department a profit centre