Week 10 Flashcards
Sporadic
occasional cases
Endemic
Present in a community at all times but in relatively low frequency
Epidemic
Sudden severe outbreak in a region or group
Pandemic
Widespread epidemic affecting whole region, continent, world
Stages of transmission
- agent only in humans - no further transmission to humans
- Primary infection –> from animals
- limited outbreak –> few animals or few cycles humans
- long outbreak –> animals or many cycles humans
- exclusive human agent –> only from humans
Endemic diseases
Seasonality, ongoing activity
Reports in excess –> epidemic
Age incidence determined by immunity duration
Pandemic
Novelty, susceptibility (20-40 yrs old over represented), transmissibility
Epidemiologic modelling
Considers causal processes involved in infection & transmission, recognises interdependence of observations –> scenario analysis and prediction
SIR paradigm
Susceptible (number of people)–> infectious –> recovered
Host susceptibility
Age, immune status, underlying risk conditions, pregnancy, ethnicity - confounded by socioeconomic determinants
Virus determines natural history
Latency - can’t be quarantined, alter behaviour
Infectiousness - asymptomatic, duration, mode of transmission
Induction of immune response - temporary (strain specific) or permanent (strain transcending)
Population determinants of spread
Birth rate Household size & crowding - influenza in a house, people 4x more likely to catch influenza Social and employment networks Population density and connectedness Population mobility
Environmental risk determinants
Seasonality
Sanitation
Proximity to vector and reservoir animal populations
Natural disasters
Syndromic surveillance
Not constrained by individual disease diagnosis Year on year comparison Identification of unseasonal activity Threshold detection algorithms Need astute clinician detection
Non-pharmaceutical measures
Environmental & personal hygiene
Case and contact quarantine
PPE
Social distancing - school closure, banning of mass gatherings
Pharmaceutical measures
Vaccines and antivirals
Ebola
Incubation period: 2-21 days
Containment
Only feasible when low transmissibility, high visibility
Cancer initiation
Appears to be genetic alteration
3 classes of cancer-causing agents
- chemical carcinogens - ethidium bromide
- UV and ionising radiation - sun exposure, nuclear bombing
- viruses - induction of cancer does not benefit viruses
Tumour
Growth produced by abnormal cell proliferation, most benign - remain localised
Some malignant - invasive = cancer
Metastatic - spread by lymph or blood
Carcinoma
Tumour of epithelial origin