Week 1: Introduction, Macroeconomic Data Flashcards
Macroeconomic method
Output = A x N
A- a positive number
N- number of employed workers in an economy
Describing fluctuations with output gap…
- describes an economy’s position relative to its potential output, the relative deviation of output Y from potential output Yn
Y ̃ = (Y − Y n)/Yn = (Y/Yn) − 1
*positive Y ̃means being above potential output
GDP behavior
-GDP grows with (on average) a constant rate, but unevenly, with swings around the overall tendency upwards
- In the long-run growth components dominates
*you cannot ignore fluctuations
Macroeconomic method -terminology
Exogenous variables - coming from outside a model and not affected by the model
- a subclass of high is parameters (constant numbers)
Endogenous variables - unknowns, calculated within a model
Aggregates of Interest are….
-Gross domestic product
-inflation
-GDP per capita
-unemployment rate
GDP - Gross Domestic Product
Was created as part of the National Income and Product Account system (NIPA) in the US in the 1930s in the wake of the Great Depression
GDP purpose
Measures the market value of all final goods and services produced in an economy within a period of time
Market value -> they have to be sold/bought
Y=total output - intermediate expenditure = value added
It is also the total income generated in an economy
* revenues from selling goods generate benefits for those producing them
GDP - circular flow diagram
H/holds, Govt., Firms
H->private expenditure (domestic) and Factors (labour,capital, land), G-> govt. spending, exp. On exports ->Firms
Firms -> goods, services, lab. Comp. Prop. Income, -> households
H-> exp. On imports
Firms -> goods, lab. Comp + prop. Income -> Taxes -»> Govt.
GDP is the total expenditure on final goods in an economy
GDP =C+I+G+NX
C is Consumption;
I is (Non-financial) Investment;
G is Government spending;
NX = Exports − Imports is Net exports;
Consumption versus investment
- Investment is (mostly) spending on fixed assets (goods that are durable and create a long-lived stream of benefits);
Examples of fixed assets
Tangible: Factories, machinery, vehicles, computer hardware, dwellings;
Intangible: New technologies, software, artistic originals; - The rest is consumption (e.g., food, cars, household appliances, etc.
In All: GDP measures total production, income, and expenditure on final goods
Y = Total output − Intermediate expenditure
Y= Lab. Comp. + property income + taxes
Y= C+I+G+NX
*all data are presented seasonally adjusted
GDP Deflator - Price Index
Price index = P is the average price level in an economy, the ‘price’ of real GDP
nGDPt =Pt ·rGDPt =Pt ·Yt
Pt = nGDPt/rGDPt
Consumer Price index - the cost of a consumption basket today relative to that cost in the base year
CPI t = cost of basket in year ‘t’/cost os basket in base year
- only includes consumer goods
- can include imports and second hand items
Real GDP v. Nominal GDP
Real uses prices from base year
Nominal uses current prices
So GDP or Y refer to rGDP
Prices indices: Deflator v. CPI
Deflator = P2 x V2/P1 x V2
CPI = P2 x V1/P1 X V1
P1 is the earlier price, the one from the base year, same with volume
Growth rates
Change in variables is characterized through its growth rate -> the percentage change it it from period to period
gY =Yt−Ytb/Ytb = Yt / Ytb - 1
gP =Pt−Ptb/Ptb = Pt/Ptb - 1
Ytb= Y at time -1
GDP per capita
‘Per capita’ -> per person
yt= Yt/Lt
yt - GDP per capita
Lt - population
- spending person, final output person
Short run, medium run, long run
Short run - fluctuations
Medium run - returning to the path of potential output
Long run - sustained growth
GDP and components
GDP - 1. Total value added 2. Total income 3. Total final expenditure (generated in an economy during a reported period)
Intermediate expenditure/consumption – acquisition of goods and services to be used in producing othergoods (e.g. raw materials);
Private consumption – acquisition of goods and services for the immediate satisfaction of individual or communal needs or wants (cf. investment);
Investment (fixed investment) – spending with a view to create an asset that generates a durable stream of benefits (e.g. buildings, equipment, dwellings, software, new technologies);
Net exports – difference between exports and imports;
Volume and price aggregates
■ Real GDP (rGDP, GDP at constant prices) – a volume measure of GDP, is calculated using quantities of goods from the reporting period (RP), which are then expressed in terms of prices in the base period (BP);
■ Nominal GDP (nGDP, GDP at current prices) – GDP calculated with both quantities and prices from the RP;
■ GDP deflator – an aggregate measure of the price level, the ratio of nGDP to rGDP. It can be interpreted as the ‘price’ of real GDP;
■ Consumer price index (CPI) – shows by how many times buying a consumption basket (a fixed set of goods and services) in the RP is more expensive than in the BP. It is the ratio of the basket’s cost in the RP to that in the BP;
■ Inflation – a measure of price growth in an economy, the growth rate of either GDP deflator or the CPI;