Week 1: Getting Started with Evidence-based Problem Solving Flashcards
Academic definition of a problem:
A situation - the difference between a goal state (e.g. target market share - 30%) and a current state (e.g. current market share 20%)
Most business and social problems are ill-structured problems
Its fundamental to construct a mental model for problem solving
Rational model:
Follows a logical and systematic process of making consistent, value-maximizing choices
- Define the problem: identify the issue:
- Define the criteria:
- Generate alternatives: Develop a few options to meet the criteria:
- Evaluate alternatives against your criteria:
- Choose the best alternatives - Select one that best fits your criteria
- Implement and monitor:
Note: Best used when you have numerous alternatives for the problem and plenty of time to evaluate them
Bounded Rationality Model:
Note: This model used when time is limited and when no-action is more costly then carefully evaluating alternatives
Doesn’t maximise potential
Intuition Model:
A decision-making mechanism that relies on rapid, nonconscious recognition of patterns, i.e your judgement
Note: Only used when there is limited information and lack of time resulting in a rapid decision.
Why use Evidence-based problem solving:
Human are inherently biased, thus evidence-based problem solving aims to eliminate bias.
If not we would be reliant on personal experience and judgement.
Cognitive bias: Availability bias
Availability bias: Relying solely on the information available to solve a problem
EXAMPLE: A friend tells the manager that their sales are experiencing low sales
Cognitive bias: Representative bias
Representative bias: Generalising from a small sample or single event.
EXAMPLE: Two people prefer minimalist furniture thus everyone likes minimalist furniture
Cognitive bias: Sunk-Cost bias
Sunk Cost Bias: Making decisions based on avoiding your past effort from going to waste
EXAMPLE: Keeping with a certain type of furniture due to excess stock even after its gone out of style
Cognitive bias: Overconfidence bias
Overconfidence bias: Overestimating one’s own abilities or the accuracy of one’s predictions
- Using the Intuition Model instead of the other two
EXAMPLE: Store manager believes his intuition is more accurate than market research
What counts as evidence?
Evidence: Information, facts or data supporting (or contradicting) a claim, assumption or hypothesis.
What can we do to reduce decision bias
- Structured Process:
- Transparent Thinking Process:
- Informed Assumptions:
- Holistic Evidence Integration:
What are the Six A-steps
- Asking
- Acquiring
- Appraising
- Aggregating
- Applying
- Assessing
Note: Used to increase the likelihood of a favorable outcome
Evidence: Scientific (literature) evidence
White:
1. Scientific research published in academic journals
2. Use peer-reviewed sources (which should enhance the quaility and creditability)
NOTE: To determine the quality look at ABCD ranking.
- https://abdc.edu.au/abdc-journal-quality-list/
Grey:
Unpublished or non-commercial literature
- Example: Statistics, government/industry reports, conference papers, policy documents and patents.
NOTE: Good for up-to-date information but isn’t subject to peer review
- Use AACODS Checklist to test creditability.
AACODS Checklist:
Authority: Is the author credible?
Accuracy: Is it supported by documented and authoritative references? Is there a clearly stated methodology? Is it in line with other work on the same topic
Coverage: Have limitations been imposed and are these stated clearly?
Objectivity: Can bias be detected?
Date: Can’t find the date? Rule of the thumb is to avoid such material
Significance: Is it relevant? Would it enrich or have an impact on your research?
Evidence: Organizational evidence
Data, facts and figures gathered from the organisation.
Collected through systematic gathering or organisation facts, indicators and metrics (both qualitative and quantitative)
Evidence: Stakeholder evidence
The values and concerns of people who may be affected by the decision.
Ethical considerations weighing the short and long-term impacts of decisions on stakeholders and society
Evidence: Practitioners (experiential) evidence
Professional experience and judgment (assisted by procedures, practices and frameworks that reduce bias).
- NOTE: Using professional experence it therefore not using a intuition model.
Misconceptions about evidence-Based Practices
- Evidence-based practice ignores the practitioner’s professional experience.
- Evidence-based practice is all about numbers and statistics
- Managers need to make decisions quickly and don’t have time for evidence-based practice
- Different levels of creditability in scientific evidence, thus its usefullness differes from case to case.
- You don’t require high-quaility evidence
- Good-quality evidence gives you the answer to the problem
McKinsey 7-Step Problem-Solving Framework Scope:
- Define the Problem: Understand the problem’s scope and impact.
- Decompose the Problem: Break the problem into smaller components and compare.
McKinsey 7-Step Problem-Solving Framework: Decisions
- Synthesise Findings: Consolidate findings into a clear message
- Communicate Recommendations: Present findings and recommendations
McKinsey 7-Step Problem-Solving Framework: Analyse
- Set priorities: Focus on critical issues first
- Develop Work Plan: Design a plan of how you will analyse them
- Conduct Analysis: Gather evidence and evaluate
The five W’s
Five W’s: What, Where, When, Who & Why
- Always ask the what first
NOTE: Used at the scope stage to idenity the paramters of the problem
