Weather and Society

Question 1

Name Strengths/Weaknesses of Secondary Analysis

Answer 1

Strengths: Don’t need to personally gather the info., often times inexpensive, data can be quantitative or qualitative.

Weakness: May have limited access to the data, sometimes may be expensive, and don’t know how data was gathered (was it gathered scientifically?).

Question 2

Name Strengths/Weaknesses of Surveys

Answer 2

Strengths: Can be gathered over large sample sizes, conclusions are generalizable, can be designed so that data can be easily statistically analyzed.

Weakness: May be expensive and time consuming to analyze, you only get answers to questions explicitly state in the survey, and there are often low response rates which effects representativeness.

Question 3

Name Strengths/Weaknesses of Focus Groups

Answer 3

Strengths:
-Get multiple responses at once
-You can explore a topic by delving deeper into the respondents answers
-the group may come up with new ideas that the researcher hadn’t considered
- Analyzed videotape may provide additional information through body language analysis
Weakness:
-sometimes a couple participants may take over the entire group
-Transcribing process can be very time consuming
-Usually the conclusions are not generalizable
-Responses may vary greatly from one group to the next

Question 4

Name Strengths/Weaknesses of Interviews

Answer 4

Strengths:
-A lot of detail can be derived from the use of open-ended questions
-The interview can change course depending on the interviewee
-Can be inexpensive
Weaknesses:
-qualitative data gathered may be very time consuming to analyze
-Conclusions may not be generalizable.

Question 5

Name Strengths/Weaknesses of Observations

Answer 5

Strengths:
Behaviors can be observed at the time they occur and interactions between people can be evident
Weakness:
Data gathering and post analysis can be very time consuming
Presence of the observer may alter the behavior of those being observed

Question 6

Name Strengths/Weakness of Experimental Methods

Answer 6

Strengths:
-well-designed experiment can focus solely on the effects of specific variables
-Often needs only a small sample size
Weakness:
-Experiment often takes place in a non-natural environment
-It may be difficult to construct proper experimental conditions

Question 7

Name the social science methods used to study Weather and Society. (Hint 6)

Answer 7

Secondary Analysis, Surveys, Focus Groups, Interviews, Observations, Experimental Methods.

Question 8

What is a hueristic?

Answer 8

This is a strategy employed to processes information received.

Question 9

Name the hueristics and biases which influence people’s risk perception. (Hint 5)

Answer 9

Availability, Optimistic Bias, Representativeness, Affect, Gamblers Fallacy.

Question 10

Describe Availability (hueristic/bias).

Answer 10

This is the when a person perceives the probability of an event based upon how easily instances of that event can be recalled. For example, if one was able to recall many instances of robbery in their neighborhood, they perceive that they have a high probability of being robbed.

Question 11

Describe Optimistic Bias (hueristic/bias).

Answer 11

This is when a person perceives that they are less susceptible to a risk than other people are.

Question 12

Describe Representativeness (hueristic/bias).

Answer 12

this concerns how similar an event is to the corresponding event they have stored in their memory. For example, if a person imagines good doctors as being older people, then if treated by a young doctor, the person may not believe they are receiving adequate treatment.

Question 13

Describe Affect (hueristic/bias).

Answer 13

This concerns how vividly we store information. In general, memories that have been stored as vivid imagery illicit an emotional response when recalled. IE, vivid imagery tends to evoke a higher affective response.

Question 14

Describe Gamblers Fallacy (hueristic/bias).

Answer 14

This is an incorrect thought process - probably from a lack of understanding of probability. An example would be the idea that two 100 year floods could not occur over a short time scale.

Question 15

Decribe (Define) the cultural theory of risk perception.

Answer 15

tells us that how people perceive risk is at least in part a product of the culture they come from. Essentially, embedded in culture are certain beliefs that influence how people perceive risk on an individual level.

Question 16

Name the world views associated with the cultural theory of risk perception. (Hint 4)

Answer 16

Hierarchists, Individualists, Egalitarians, and Fatalists.

Question 17

Describe the prototypical hierarchists

Answer 17

most fear social deviance, which threatens the structure of status quo. They call for the active management of risk by ‘experts,’ in whom they place great trust.

Question 18

Describe the prototypical individualist

Answer 18

most fear restrictions on their autonomy, such as government regulation. They promote market-based strategies that maintain their autonomy and provide opportunities for personal gain, believing that the ‘invisible hand’ – of self-interested actors seeking to maximize their own personal gain – leads to optimal social results.”

Question 19

Describe the prototypical egalitarian

Answer 19

most concerned about injustice in the distribution of risk costs and benefits, tolerate or celebrate social deviance and diversity, and view technology with suspicion. They often promote participatory, democratic, and consensus-based decision-making that includes all affected parties as equals.

Question 20

Describe the prototypical fatalist

Answer 20

Believes that they have little control over what happens and that natural events are “Acts of God.”

Question 21

What factors influence response to hazards (e.g. hurricane evacuation, tornado sheltering, driving through flood) ?

Answer 21

Desirable behavior depends on what the hazard is, actions encouraged before the event occurs, and when the event is expected.

Hurricane evacuation - location vulnerability, actions taken by public authorities, specific storm threat factors

Tornado sheltering - education, hearing the warning, personality traits

Driving through floods - age,

Question 22

Be able to describe spatial patterns of extreme weather impacts such as lightning, tornadoes, or hurricanes.

Answer 22

The average number of deaths per year for hurricanes is 47 based on 30 years of data, with the most deaths being caused by freshwater flooding. Deaths are decreasing for the most part when not including large events. Poor are most vulnerable since they many times don’t have money to evacuate.

There are about 800-1400 tornadoes a year in the US but only a small amount cause casualties with a decrease over time based on better forecasting data increasing warning time. The south is the most vulnerable due to the environmental conditions being better and larger populations. Nearly half of the deaths from tornadoes from 1985-2005 were in mobile homes with a large number occurring with nocturnal tornadoes. The older generation and poor are most vulnerable.

Florida is the #1 location of lightning deaths with WY and NM higher when population is taken into consideration. Peaks in the summer and over weekends, mostly males, and usually only 1 person involved. Deaths have decreased based on the increase in forecasting ability, awareness, and better medical treatment.

Question 23

What role does population have in damage and deaths?

Answer 23

Population plays a considerable role in terms of damage and deaths because damage and deaths tend to increase with increasing population. That is, an increasing population makes more people vulnerable. So, even with better education and effective plans to limit vulnerability, the number of deaths and the amount of damage may increase per natural hazard because there are more people and structures at risk.

Question 24

Be able to discuss how one might study weather related fatalities.

Answer 24

The first things you need to determine is the frequency of the impacts (low vs medium vs high vs extreme). Know that there is more data for low impact weather events, most warnings/advisories are based on impacts, each weather element will have different impacts on the economy/people/society.

Question 25

What databases are used?

Answer 25

The databases used are: National Climatic Data Center and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics

Question 26

What are the problems with this type of work?

Answer 26

The biggest problem is that the information obtained from these databases could produce completely different outcomes. This could be based on the lack of knowledge and communication between the different agencies.

Question 27

Name the 9 weather/health conditions talked about in the class.

Answer 27

Cold, Flu, West Nile, Flooding, UV radiation, Heat, Air Pollution, Pollen, Mold.

Question 28

How does cold effect health?

Answer 28

• Hypothermia
• Carbon monoxide poisoning from generator-fueled efforts to avoid hypothermia.
• Heart attack from over exertion doing things that people don’t usually do - shoveling snow for example.
• Seniors often slip on ice and fracture brittle bones
• Frostbite

Question 29

How is the flu effected by weather?

Answer 29

Winter weather, it turns out, helps flu virus particles survive in the air. Flu virus is spread through tiny liquid droplets exhaled by sufferers. Researchers have discovered that the virus survives best in dry, cold air.The virus particle coats seem to be more stable at cooler temperatures, and drier air keeps the liquid droplets that contain them aloft longer. Other research found a greater connection to dry air and the spread of influenza than for low temperatures. The research showed that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks.

Question 30

How is West Nile effected by weather?

Answer 30

The mosquito that carries West Nile thrives in city stormwater-catch basins, where pools of nutrient-rich water linger unflushed during drought. Warm temperatures also hasten reproduction of viruses within mosquitoes, increasing the chance a mosquito will transmit the virus before the insect reaches the end of its life span.

Question 31

How does flooding effect health?

Answer 31

-The flood waters can become fouled by disease-causing bacteria, chemicals, heavy metals, and pesticides. -Flooding may drive rodents from burrows, fueling outbreaks of rodent-borne leptospirosis and tularemia. -Mosquitoes bred in the floodwaters, and mosquito-borne diseases also flared up.

Question 32

How does UV radiation effect health?

Answer 32

-Too much UV exposure causes skin cancer, premature wrinkles, immune system suppression, cataracts and other eye damage, and of course, sunburn.

Question 33

How does heat effect health?

Answer 33

• When heat gain exceeds heat removal, or when the body cannot compensate for fluids and salt lost to sweat, the body’s core temperature begins to rise and cause heat cramps, heat exhaustion or heat stroke.
• The extra heat damages the brain and other vital organs.
• Hearts may fail when strained by the increased circulation required to hold body temperature steady or to overcome the effects of dehydration, which thickens the blood, making it harder to pump.

Question 34

How does air pollution effect health?

Answer 34

• ozone can provoke coughing, inflame the throat, and make it harder to breathe deeply.
• Ozone may also lower resistance to respiratory diseases like pneumonia
• permanently damage lung tissue
• aggravate chronic lung diseases like asthma or bronchitis.

Question 35

How does pollen effect health?

Answer 35

Weather-related seasonal pollen and mold can provoke allergies among your viewers.
Allergies are worse during hot, dry or windy days, peaking at midday in cities.
Pollen counts are lowest during chilly, wet times.

Question 36

How does mold effect health and what weather coditions encourage the growth of mold?

Answer 36

• Affected may experience congestion, throat irritation, coughing, wheezing, red eyes, skin rashes or asthma attacks.
• Allergies are by far the most frequent illness associated with mold.
• Floods and wet weather put your viewers especially at risk, so make sure you remind them during these times to dry out soggy homes as soon as possible.

Question 37

How does seasonal weather influence the economy?

Answer 37

Weather is the key to agricultural success - drought, flooding, temperatures, and sunlight can all influence the outcome of crops. Weather influences daily and seasonal energy demands - hot weather increases demand for electricity, cold weather increases demand for electricity and natural gas.Extreme weather events such as hurricanes impact power lines and oil production. Snow events impact transportation - snow removal is needed, fuel costs increases due to the cost to transport needed items such as food, delays in travel. Airline travel delays - thunderstorms, snow/ice, visibility. Houses sell better on dry/warm days, lower heating/cooling costs are better for consumers, retail is dependent on weather conditions (more snow in mountains cause better winter coat sales).

Question 38

What sectors are sensitive to weather fluctuations?

Answer 38

Agricultural, energy, transportation, retail, housing market.

Question 39

Where does uncertainty in weather information come from?

Answer 39

First, there is uncertainty with regards to the current state of the atmosphere. Although surface weather observations are taken at a variety of locations across the world, the weather parameters in the space between these locations filled using a best guess. Information collected in the vertical (weather balloons) is even less available and for most locations only collected twice a day. NWP must have accurate initial conditions in order to make an accurate forecast. Unfortunately, small errors in the initial conditions often results in large errors in model forecasts as time increases.
Second, there are many atmospheric processes that exist on a scale that is much smaller than the model resolution. These sub-grid processes can have very significant impacts on daily weather.
Third, some processes are too complex for the models to solve for explicitly. These process are parameterized which in effect simplifies the computations but introduces error. Finally, there are still processes that take place in our atmosphere that are not fully understood.

Question 40

What are deterministic and probabilistic forecasts? Be able to provide examples of uncertainty and both types of forecasts.

Answer 40

A deterministic forecast is one which gives only one possibility (only one forecast solution). An example would be, “High of 45 degrees expected today.”
A probabilistic forecast is one which gives a probability of occurrence or a range of solutions. An example would be, “There is a 60 percent chance of rain today.”

Question 41

Define HDD (Heating Degree Days)

Answer 41

(Avr Daily Temperature) – 65

So, Heating Degree Days are the number of degrees the average daily temperature is below 65. Example, average daily temperature for a particular day is 60, so 60 - 65 = -5. The HHD for this day is 5.

Question 42

Define CDD (Cooling Degree Days)

Answer 42

(Avr Daily Temperature) - 65

So, Cooling Degree Days are the number of degrees the average daily temperature is above 65. Example, average daily temperature for a particular day is 80, so 80 - 65 = 15. The CCD for this day is 15.

Question 43

Define GGD (Growing Degree Days)

Answer 43

(Avr Daily Temperature) – (given value)

GGD are very similar to the HDD or CDD, but instead of 65, some other number is locally specified instead.

Question 44

Define Ethonmeteorology

Answer 44

is the study of how cultures view the natural world resulting from their local, indigenous or traditional knowledge. Some key points are: there is often a disconnect between indigenous world views and scientifically based understanding. Indigenous world views are often steeped in knowledge about natural cycles like bird migrations. Similarities often exist between indigenous knowledge and conclusions drawn from scientific observations. Having a thorough understanding of how a particular world view perceives weather in order to more effectively communicate changing weather conditions for future climate change. Along those lines, attain a better understand how certain societies interact with weather in order to help them adapt to possible future changes.

Question 45

Define Probability of Precipitation

Answer 45

Just like the name implies - the probability that precipitation will occur at a specified location. In a research paper we read, a good way of defining what “probability of precipitation” means, is like this:
Probability of Precipitation = 60 percent, so on 60 percent of the days like today, it would rain at the specified location.

Question 46

Define Phenology

Answer 46

“The shifting in the timing of seasonal activities or lifecycle events.” Migration, mating, giving birth, etc…

Question 47

Define Thermoregulation

Answer 47

This is the ability for an animal to keep its core temperature within a healthy zone. Dry, wind, precipitation are meteorological factors which affect how the animal regulates its internal temperature.

Question 48

Define Amplification

Answer 48

to increase the magnitude of something. The media can amplify an event by increasing their coverage of it or to overemphasize the hazards. In addition, several related events happening in close proximity may amplify an issue.

Question 49

Define Attenuate

Answer 49

to decrease the magnitude of something. Attenuation can occur if the media avoids reporting on an event of or downplays the hazard.

Question 50

Expain the PETS Act

Answer 50

is the Pests Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act. This Act requires that state and local emergency preparedness plans included provision to assist individuals with animals. As a best practice, the PETS Act suggests that animals remain with their caregivers through the evacuation process. In addition, the ACT gives FEMA the power to assist in the creation of disaster plans for animals and gives FEMA the authority to use federal dollars to create pet friendly shelters and to provide additional aid to individuals with animals. The PETS act actually requires that pets be at least considered in the emergency plans created by States and local emergency managers. Pet sheltering with consideration for responder safety should be address within the plans. However, ultimately, people are the primary concern. The PETS Act was passed in 2006 which had a lot to do with the widespread dissemination of issues with regards to pets left behind during Hurricane Katrina.

Question 51

describe the steps in the classic persuasion model

Answer 51

Source – Message – Channel – Receiver – Effect – Feedback – (Back to Source)
Sources says something (Message) through some medium (Channel) to a someone else (receiver) which has an effect. Then the sources is given feedback.

Question 52

describe the steps in the general model of risk communication

Answer 52

Hear – Confirm – Understand – Believe – Personalize – Respond
• Hear – use of the senses to identify some new information.
• Confirm – make sure that the new information is real.
• Understand – realizing the significance of the new information. Best if specific, repeated, from an official source, and confirmed.
• Believe – A personal acceptance that the new information is accurate. Believing is accelerated if the source is trusted and for the same reasons as understanding. There are two types of trust. Specific trust would be trust in an individual or entity, while general trust is trust on a more broad scale such as trust in society.
• Personalize – the realization that one will be personally affected. Personalization is encouraged in the same ways as understanding, but it is also enhanced when the information is provided on a personal level. IE, a law enforcement officer telling you about an evacuation order as compared to reading about it on the crawl on TV.
• Respond – the reaction to the message. This includes taking actions to confirm that the message is true.

Question 53

Name the steps in the classic persuation model

Answer 53

Source – Message – Channel – Receiver – Effect – Feedback – (Back to Source)

Question 54

Name the steps in the general persuation model.

Answer 54

Hear – Confirm – Understand – Believe – Personalize – Respond

Question 55

What is a disaster myth and how do they come about?

Answer 55

A disaster myth is notion that is widely accepted but is usually unfounded. These myths tend to persist for a number of reasons. The media tends to exaggerate issues by covering them at a higher volume than the actual number of instances would support. In addition, the placement of disaster myth related stores on the cover and vivid pictures of the myth have a more profound effect on the viewers than would otherwise be. In addition, officials who believe these myths sometimes make statements that are then repeated in the news. Since officials are often considered to be credible, there words are particularly influential.

Question 56

List 7 disaster myths

Answer 56

1. “Cry Wolf Effect,” - The public will stop paying attention to warnings if they experience too many
2. the typical response of the public in an emergency is panic
3. that many people will experience some kind of disaster shock (Trauma/Shock/Passivity)
4. people will behave in an irrational manner
5. breakdown of society, looting, price gouging,
6. dead bodies will rapidly spread disease
7. wild dogs will roam the streets

Question 57

List the 4 animals effected by climate change discussed in the class.

Answer 57

Marmots, zooplankton, pica, and coral

Question 58

How are marmots effected by climate change?

Answer 58

Marmot Size – An increase in the average temperature has allowed the North American Marmot to spend less time in hibernation and more time hunting for food. This has led the animal to grow larger (~10% larger) and increase the animals average lifespan. The increase in lifespan has led to an increase in mating and an increase in the number of offspring.

Question 59

How are Zooplankton effected by climate change?

Answer 59

Zooplankton – An increase in global temperatures has led to an increase in oceanic temperatures which has led to a northward migration and decline in the numbers of zooplankton. Certain species of zooplankton live within a narrow band of water temperatures. These bands have slowly migrated northward with increasing global temperatures, so in response, the zooplankton have also migrated northward in order to remain within their habitable zone.

Question 60

How are Pica effected by climate change?

Answer 60

Pica – The Pica is an example of a species undergoing extirpation in the Western US. It lives within a rather narrow sub-alpine mountainous zone and increased temperatures has led to habitat loss and degradation.

Question 61

How are coral effected by climate change?

Answer 61

Coral Bleaching – Coral and zooxanthellae algae live together to form a symbiotic relationship – each benefits from the others existence. Unfortunately, zooxanthellae algae live within a rather narrow range of oceanic temperatures. With an increase of more than about .8 to 1 degree C for at least 4 weeks, the zooxanthellae algae, which lives within the outer tissue of the coral, leaves the tissue and what is left is the white colored coral skeleton.

Question 62

List the steps of the emergency planning process.

Answer 62

Mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery.

Question 63

Describe the emergency planning process mitigation.

Answer 63

Mitigation includes actions that are taken before a disaster that reduce the effects of the disaster in the long term. However, since the emergency planning process is circular in nature, the mitigation process often takes place after an event occurs during the recovery phase. This would be done to reduce the effects in the future should this type of disaster occur again. An example of mitigation would be developing an evacuation plan in the event of a hurricane making landfall for a coastal location.

Question 64

Describe the emergency planning process preparendess.

Answer 64

While mitigation are actions taken long before an event occurs, preparedness refers to actions that are taken in the short-term (when a disaster is imminent) in order to prepare for the expected outcomes. An example of preparedness would be increasing the number of staff available to clear roads for a forecasted heavy snow event.

Question 65

Describe the emergency planning process response.

Answer 65

Response is the step when pre-created emergency plans go into effect. This could be going into a neighbor’s hurricane shelter when a hurricane is moving through the community.

Question 66

Describe the emergency planning process recovery.

Answer 66

Recovery would be actions taken after a disaster to return to pre-event conditions. This step usually takes place after the basic needs of the community have been met. This could be repairing a damaged bridge. Recovery leads back into mitigation, so often the recovery period is a time to make structures more hazard resistant or to improve existing mitigation plans.