W4: Food Production Flashcards
Define food production
preparation of menu items in needed quantity with the desired quality
Define Quality
Extremely important in mass food production due to the number of employees involved
Define Quantity
element that distinguishes production
in food services from home or family food
preparation
What makes up food production planning? Give examples of each component.
Input (eg. human resources, materials, operational)
Output (eg. meals- quantity & quality)
Control (eg. menu, standards, laws & regulations)
Memory (eg. production records)
What elements of decision making need to be considered?
forecasting, planning and production schedule
How is forecasting important? What methods are used for forecasting?
needed to determine demand for:
- procurement (how much to buy)
- production quantity (how much to make)
Methods: historical records, intuition, complex models
What considerations should be included when choosing a forecasting model?
cost, required accuracy, relevancy of past data, forecasting lead time, underlying pattern of behavior
Why should cost be considered during forecasting?
development & operation, staff training, operational (data collection)
Why is accuracy important for forecasting?
more expensive higher accuracy of predictions vs less expensive, less accurate
When should past data be used?
Past data only relevant if clear relationships between past and future exist
Why is forecasting lead time important to consider?
The choice of a lead time depends on the items being forecast: A short-term for perishable produce, and a medium-or long-term lead for canned goods.
What are the different types of models used in forecasting?
Time series
Causal
Subjective
What is a time series forecasting model?
assumption that actual ocurrences follow
identifiable patterns
⚬ For short term, not very accurate
⚬ give general sense of trend
⚬ e.g. moving average forecasting model;
exponential smoothing
What is a causal model?
assumption that identifiable relationships exists
between the item being forecast and other factors
⚬ complexity varies - 1 factor, multiple factors
⚬ e.g. regression analysis
What is a subjective model?
No patterns or relationships between data
⚬ rely on opinions and other information