Voting Trends: Party leaders

Question 1

Why do we study the impact of party leaders

Answer 1

• Study impact of party leaders, particularly public perception, on voting behaviour.
• When people vote for the ruling party, they simultaneously elect a PM as well - image and quality of party leaders are crucial.

Question 2

Examples of prior PMs and their image

Answer 2

+ Liz Truss = people argue she is like Thatcher - heavily disliked in the North - and out-of touch.
+ David Cameron = more positive image than Milliband - won the 2015 election.
+ Tony Blair = Began positive - won two more elections.
+ Gordon Brown = Poor image based on negative media portrayals and indecisiveness - contributed to election defeat in 2010.
+ Boris Johnson = poor as he faced scandals with Partygate.
+ Rishi Sunak = YouGov survey reveals that 60% of Brits views him unfavourably.

Question 3

Desired qualities of a leader

Answer 3

• Record in office (if been).
• Compassion.
• Decisiveness.
• Honesty/sincerity.
• Strong leadership.
• Clear vision.
• Communication skills

Question 4

Influence of the press and broadcasting

Answer 4

• Portrays character and image are vital factors in electoral outcomes yet evidence suggests otherwise.

+ 1979: Labour PM James Callaghan led by 20% in the popularity polls against Margret Thatcher (Tory) yet still lost the election.

+ 2010: Lib Dem Nick Clegg - most popular following impressive showings in TV debates, but his party’s share of the vote fell by 1% and lost 5 parliamentary seats.

+ 2019: Boris Johnson was disliked by the population, yet considered the best candidate compared to Corybyn and won the election - mainly due to Brexit.

Question 5

Quote from Professor Brown

Answer 5

‘Only in an extremely close-run race that the personality of the leader…and the popularity of their principal opponent can make the difference between victory and defeat.’

Question 6

Data of satisfaction ratings of Govt/party leaders in 2015

Answer 6

Cameron (Con) = 46% satisfied, 48% dissatisfied.
Milliband (Lab) = 35% satisfied, 54% dissatisfied
Clegg (Lib Dem) = 34% satisfied, 55% dissatisfied
Farage (UKIP) = 31% satisfied, 56% dissatisfied
Sturgeon (SNP) = 51% satisfied, 18% dissatisfied (Scots only)
The Govt = 41% satisfied, 52% dissatisfied

Question 7

Analysis of 2015 satisfaction ratings

Answer 7

At first confirms ratings do make a difference, as Cameron held the best poll ratings and went on to win the genera election.

However - not much correlation of popularity and GE:
- Labour’s vote rose compared to the Conservatives, 1.5% to 0.8 in 2010-15; UKIP’s share shot up by 9.5% - however, Labour’s Milliband was less popular than Conservatives and Farage was the least popular overall.
- Sturgeon - exception as her popularity is due to the popularity of her party.

Question 8

The Corbyn effect 2017

Answer 8

• During the 2017 GE - remarkable phenomenon occurred.
• Began the campaign as an underdog, reviled by the press, opposed by MPs and unpopular among voters = Jeremy Corbyn created a bandwagon effect - mostly among the young.
• Little doubt his resurgence was a major influence on the election outcome and the Labour revival (rose from 30.45 to 40.0%).
• Shows leadership can make a difference.