Voting behaviours Flashcards
What are long term influences on voting
social class, gender, race, religion, age, education and long term political alignment
What are short term influences on voting behaviour
performance of party in gov, major issues, electoral campaign, party leaders images, mass media influence, major political events
When was the first mass male electorate developed
19th century
When was the addition of women being able to vote
20th century
What year was the secret ballot introduced
1872
When did 18 year olds get the vote
1969
When did 16 year olds vote for the first time in the UK
2014
What are the three main competing models
Party identification, sociological and individual voting
Describe party identification and what it is linked to
Voting behaviour is the result of political socialisation, which leads to political loyalty to a party.
Linked to partisan alignment- although partisan dealignment is steadily rising
Describe sociological factors and what they are linked to
Voting behaviour is associated with sociological factors traditionally class but gender, age, ethnicity, education and religion have all been prominent in the last elections.
Linked to class alignment although in recent decades there has been a decline in this leading to class dealignment
Describe individual voting
the result of individuals making decisions based on available choices.
May vote rationally
Party managers understand the importance of campaigning
Describe individual voting
the result of individuals making decisions based on available choices.
May vote rationally
Party managers understand the importance of campaigning
List some factors voting may be based on (5)
Issues economic competence governing competence party leaders party campaign
Define partisan alignment
Voters that have a long term stable attachment to one of the main parties developed through socialisation
Evidence for partisan alignment
1964
90% of voters identified with a party
44% had a strong identification
Define partisan dealignment
Decline in the number of voters that identify with a party- no longer feel a sense of loyalty
Evidence for partisan dealignment
2005- 13% had a strong identification
2010- 65.1% voted for the two main parties
Name 3 reasons for partisan dealignment
Disillusionment with the main parties
More voter choice– more choices
Less difference between the main two parties
What happened in the 2019 election (PD)
Partisan dealignment Lab voters –> Con
Lab ‘red wall’ fell
Blythe valley hadn’t voted con since 1950s
Bassetlaw hadn’t voted con since 1924
What is social class
The way in which people are classified on the basis of their occupations and to some extent their income and class can be used to explain various forms of behaviour
What is AB, and what % of the populations is AB
Higher managerial and professionals
- 22.17%
C1
How much of the population are C1
Managerial, administrative or professionals
30.84%
C2
How much of the population is C2
Skilled manual occupations
20.94%
D E
what percentage of the population is D E
semi and unskilled manual occupations
26.05%
In the 1964 election what % of voters did Harold Wilson and Alec Douglas- Hume have
HW- 64% D E
ADH- 78% AB
Define class alignment
Commitment of a particular social class to a political party. Strongly linked with party loyalty
What did Pultzer suggest about class
‘Class is the basis of British party politics; all else is embellishment and detail’
In 1964 there was the highest evidence for what?
Class and voting correlation
DE- 64% Lab
AB- 78% Con
In the 2010 election there was evidence for what
a decline in class and voting correlation
DE- 40% Lab
AB- 40%Con
In 2017 there was an increase in
DE voting Lab (59%)
Slight decrease in AB voting
2019 there was a weak correlation of
class and voting correlation Lab DE-39% and AB-45% con
Define class dealignment
suggests that voters are less likely to voter according to their membership of a particular class,
Linked to partisan dealignment
In 1979 what did Thatcher do to try and make the Conservatives seem less middle class
Launched campaign in Cardiff
11% C2 swing
9% DE swing
What did Blair do in 1997 do to get Lab voters make Lab appeal beyond the core voter
Working class saw Lab as progressive party
What happened in 2017 that show evidence of CD
TM- gained DE brexit supporters
Corbyn gets AB pro euro voters
What was significant about the 2019 class votes
Absence of class distinctions Low C2 DE turnout Lib Dem- AB C1 Brexit/Ukip- DE Alienation of traditional Lab voters Green was consistent
What policies have encouraged people to see themselves as middle class
1979- right to buy council house
Buying shares via the privatisation of companies
Foreign holidays
Private services
What are the work place divisions
Public sector- Lab
Private- Con
What has changed in political parties
Range of parties when focusing on important issues
1997-2010- New Lab- catch all party- gains across all social groups
2019- Campaigning in Lab heartlands
What is the influence of other factors
Valence issues
Voting for other parties
Describe the class viewpoints on Brexit
AB- strong remain
C1- remain
C2- strong leave
DE-leave
What is the decline in traditional working class
De industrialisation
Fallen manual labour
New working class- women and part timer workers
50% of workers are in service industry
What is the north south divide
The division between the north and south of England socially, economically and politically
Southern bias
North- higher unemployment, poverty and ill health
Conservatives- region
SE support
Ethically rural places- white voters
Labour region
Ethnically diverse cities support working class industry London
Lib Dems regions
N Scotland, rural wales, SW
Small and spread out voters
2017 election- parties and regions
Lab- London, North, Wales
Con- South, Midlands
Lib Dem- South and London
SNP- scotland
What is the patterns in cities, small towns and rural areas and the way that they vote
Lab- cities
Con- rural
Small towns- Con
Young voters
Low turnout
Labour
Evidence for Young people leaning towards voting Lab
Con: Lab votes (%) 1979- 42:41 1997- 27:49 2017- 18:67 2019- 21:56
Why are young people more inclined to vote Lab
Social media campaigns Progressive Remain Policies favour students Nationalisation Peer pressure Social justice Environment Idealistic
Older voters
Con
Higher turnout
Evidence for older votes favouring Con
Lab: Con (%) 1997- 41:36 2015- 23:47 2017- 23:59 2019- 22:57
Why do older voters vote Con
Low taxation Strong defence Strong law and order Con- Euro sceptic Own their own property Stabilty> change that Lab offers
What Lab policies appealed to young voters in 2017 and 2019
Environmental policies
Free tuition fees
EMA reinstated
Free broadband
What policies did May include in her manifesto that angered elderly voters
Remove triple lock
Dementia tax
What is the pattern between education and voting
2017- Con increased their support among those with fewest educational qualifications
Lab- highest amount of support amongst those in HE
Con- appeal to white working class
Lab- Liberal approach to immigration
Con-nationalism
Con- globalisation
Ethnicity in voting
more likely to vote Labour
Why do ethnic minorities vote Lab
High wealth fare spending Trade union association Multiculturalism commitment Lab- 1976 Race relations act Con- hostile to immigrant communities
2005- evidence of issue voting
Iraq War
Lab lost ground with the Muslim population
2010- evidence of Lab regaining the ethnic minority support
68% voted Lab
2015 election BAME MPs
Con- BAME MPs in safe seat constituencies
Lab- elected in high BAME voter constituencies
Why did women used to be more likely to vote Con
Worked in low paid office jobs/ didn’t work
Were not unionised
2017 election- gender
CON- 18% women vs 36% men
LAB- 73% women vs 52% men
2019 election- gender
2019- women > men for lab (all ages)
18-24 year olds 65:46 % (W:M)
How have the parties appealed to women
1997- Blair- all women shortlists
2010- Cameron- encouraged an increase in female Con candidates
2015- Lab women to women buses targeted women that hadn’t voted
2000- free nursery
How have the changes to a women’s societal roles impacted their voting
1970/80- Housewives- Thatcher emphasised her housewife skills
1980- more women entered the workplace and took jobs in Lab areas
Difference in valent issues for men and women
Women- education and healthcare
Men- defence and security
Turnout and age
The older you are the more likely you are to vote
Why is turnout low among young voters
Disillusion with conventional politics
Alternative political participation
Single issues> ideologies
Abstention
In between the years 1992-2015 how much did turnout in young people fall by
19%
what was turnout like in 2005 (Iraq war)
37%
What was the ‘youthquake’ in 2017
there was a surge in youth votes by 11% due to anger caused by Brexit
What was the impact of young voters in 2017
Increase of youth vote
Labour’s share of the national vote increased by 10%
This prevented a majority in parliament
Briefly describe tactical voting
Due to wasted votes
People abandon their party which they believe wont win
Vote for a main party that has a chance of winning
Define valence
When voters make their decision based on the party/ candidate they think is most likely to run the country effectively (governing competence) and the economy (economic competence)
What are the four factors valence voters may look at when choosing who to vote for?
Party reputation
Perception of governing competence
Perception of economic competence
Potential of the party leaders to become PM
How do the main parties encourage valence voting
Differences between the policy positions of the parties has narrowed down and without a clear choice voters might instead rely on other factors
How did labour encourage valence voting in 2017
lack of clarity on Brexit
Define governing competence
The perceived ability of the governing party in office to manage the affairs of the state well and effectively. If the view is that they’ve failed encourages public to vote for change
James Callaghan losing his reputation of governing competence (1979)
Inability to tackle the power of the trade unions led to strikes which led to the ‘winter of discontent’
Neil Kinnock losing his governing competence (1992)
Bad reputation as the leader of Labour party
John Major losing his governing competence (1997)
Conservative party damaged by the economic recession, a range of scandals and internal divisions over the EU
Gordon Brown losing his governing competence (2010)
Labour’s reputation of economic competence was suffered due to the economic crash was led by the unpopular Gordon Brown
What is economic voting
Where voters see the economy as the most important issue and make their decision based on the party they believe is most economically competent at leading government
What does salient mean
Important
In politics something is salient if its important to a group of voters and influences the way that they vote
2010 banking crisis
negative impact on Lab
Austerity scares many voters
No party convinced voters of their economic competence
2019 economy
Brexit meant uncertain economy
Lab had a radical manifesto
Shift in economic policies
Rational voting choice
Non committed voters make a rational choice.
Voters treat politicians the same way as consumers goods
What is expressive voting
Voter gets the satisfaction if they voter for a party that will benefit society as a whole
What is instrumental voting
voters vote to benefit themselves
Salient issues in elections (1997- 2019)
1997- public services 2005- Iraq war 2010- financial crisis 2015- Nhs and immigration 2017- NHS 2019- Brexit
Factors affecting voting choice
Leaders competence to be PM How parties preform in office Reputation Tactical voting Policies in manifesto Valent/ salient issues
Party leaders
Image of party leaders
More presidential system
Voters use party leaders as a short cut for choosing their party
Past- ‘Vote conservative’ Present- ‘I voted Boris Johnson’
Important leadership qualities
Honesty Decisiveness Communication skills Vision Strong leadership Record in office Sincerity and compassionate
Factors that linked to Margret Thatcher being known as a successful party leader
Radical solutions Focused on Lab failures Presented herself as a house wife Strong and focused leadership High unemployment levels
Factors that linked to Tony Blair being known as a successful party leader
Self confidence
Charismatic
Won over the murdoch press
Modern
Factors that linked to David Cameron being known as a successful party leader
Media savvy
Focused on Labour’s economic failure
No parliamentary majority
Heir to Blair
Factors that linked to Michael Foot being known as an unsuccessful party leader
Left wing intellectual
No appeal beyond Lab core vote
Brilliant speaker
Looked to old
Factors that linked to Gordon Brown being known as an unsuccessful party leader
Ex chancellor
Grumpy
Bully
Define mandate
Winning party can claim the authority to implement its manifesto promises and the ability to act if new issues arise
The doctrine of the mandate depends on
electors being confident that they understand the policies they are giving their consent to when they vote
mandate allows parliament to hold the gov to account based on their manifesto
electors can judge the performance of the gov and their mp against their mandate at the next election
Sometimes the mandate can have problems because…
coalition and minority gov can make the mandate less clear
voters may not like all the policies in a manifesto
circumstances may change after the party takes power and they may abandon their manifesto commitments
some manifesto commitments are vague and open to commitment
Do campaigns influence the results of elections?
YES
Some campaigns may reinforce existing attitudes but other campaigns may challenge them
E.g. with the growth of partisan dealignment campaigns do matter
Do campaigns influence the results of elections?
YES
2010 election
Strong lib dem campaign
Clegg had an impressive performance
Increased Lib dem support at the expense of conservatives which led to a coalition government
Do campaigns influence the results of elections?
YES
2017 election
Corbyn- optimistic campaign and manifesto
May- uninspiring and unpopular manifesto
Lab support went from 30% to 40%
Do campaigns influence the results of elections?
NO
Some political commentators say the influence of the campaign can be exaggerated and that voters have already made up their mind
Do campaigns influence the results of elections?
NO
1950/60s
class allegiance meant campaigns made little difference in swaying the voters
Do campaigns influence the results of elections?
NO
1987
lab- ran a dynamic, praised campaign showing leadership competence
con- won with 102 seat majority
Do campaigns influence the results of elections?
NO
1997
John Major decided on a long campaign in the hope that he could reduce Blair’s huge lead
Blair was far ahead
Do campaigns influence the results of elections?
NO
2017
Con- poor campaign yet increased vote share from 36.9% to 42.4%
What are the 4 main types of media
TV
Newspapers
Print
Online media
Traditionally the role of the media was to…
Report political events accurately Educate the public Provide commentary on political events Scrutinise the gov Provide a forum for debate Act as a bridge between the elected and the electoral
How has the media changed
24 hour news sensationalised events focus on personality created a national mood of cynicism online media
Tv debates (2010-2019
2010- first ever- Clegg had equal coverage- Lib dem benefited
2015- 7 party leader debate- no clear winner
2017- May decides against debate- allowed other parties to attack her
2019- Johnson v Corbyn
Thatcher and the media
Understood media power Softened her voice Bolder outfits Sympathetic programmes Memorable sound bites
Blair and the media
Favourable news stories
calm and reassuring
statement like
Johnson and the media
tries to be relatable/comedic
effective phrases
struggles when challenged
media and the 1992 election
attacked neil kinnock to undermine his credibility to be PM
media and the 1997 election
Blair had connection with Murdoch
Does the press impact voters?
YES
Correlation between readers and the paper they read
Sun always back the winning parties
Growth in online readership
Does the press impact voters?
NO
Declining readership
Read what they already support
Reading doesn’t equal their own political views
What are opinion polls
A view taken at a point in time to predict what the actual vote will be in the election
Do voting polls influence voting?
Yes
Bandwagon effect- support the winner
Influences campaigning methods
Helps swing voters to decide what to do
Do voting polls affect voting?
NO
Most people have made up their mind by the time they’re aware of the polls
Inaccurate
Overestimate Lab underestimate Con
