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Politics > Voting Behaviour/Turnout > Flashcards

Voting Behaviour/Turnout Flashcards

0
Q

Solid red states

A

TX, GA, KS, SC

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1
Q

Solid blue states

A

MA, NY, CA, IL

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2
Q

Swing states

A

OH, FL, CO

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3
Q

Voted for winner in every presidential election in 20th Century (ex 1956, 2008, 2012)

A

Missouri

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4
Q

Voted for winner in last 13 presidential election

A

OH

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5
Q

How many times Obama and Romney visited Ohio in 2012

A

35

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6
Q

Party labels of Democrats

A 
More liberal
Less affluent and minorities
More interventionist
Until 1960s, party of South
Liberal and progressive voters
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7
Q

Party labels of Republicans

A 
More conservative
Wealthier WASPs
Limited government
Free market, business, social/fiscal conservatism
Wealthy, white, rural voters
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8
Q

How many times since 1952 the party with most support from own identifiers has won

A

12/16

2004: Kerry 89%, Bush 93%
2008: Obama 89%, McCain 90%
2012: Obama 92%, Romney 93%

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9
Q

Stats on Bush Factor (2008/2012)

A

2008: approval ratings historic low of 27% on Election Day
67% disapproved voted Obama
2012: 53% still blamed Bush economy

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10
Q

Two Term Itch

A

Only twice since Civil War has president from same party as two-term been elected (1876, 1988)

Since 1796, only 9/31 presidents have lost re-election

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11
Q

Reverse Coattails Effect

A

Majority disapproved of Obama’s job performance - 9/10 voted R

4/10 “express opposition to Obama”

Supporters lost - Tom Perriello (D-VA)

Democrats under performed in 83% of CDs compared to 2008

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12
Q

Independents

A

42% self-identify as indy
Since 1980, chose winner in 7/9 presidential elections
2008: Obama 52% v McCain 44%

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13
Q

Wealth gap

A

2008: Obama increased support in every income group
- 10% in less than $15k
- 17% in more than $200k

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14
Q

Race

A

Much more important in US than UK

1980: whites 88% electorate, 2012: 72%
2008: 43% white voted Obama

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15
Q

African-Americans

A 
Solid blue
12.6% population
2008: 95% Democrat
1980-2008: never less than 83% D
All 32 majority AA CDs Democrat
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16
Q

Southern states Obama won in 2012

A

VI, FL

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17
Q

Importance of Latino vote

A 
Swing voters
2% electorate in 1992, 15.8% 2010
2004: 43% R
2008: 31% R, 66% D
2012: 27% R, 71% D
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18
Q

Protestants

A

2004: 25% evangelical, 80% Bush
2012: 76% Romney

19
Q

Why are Roman Catholics increasingly considered swing voters?

A

Historically immigrants
Democrats publicly pro-choice
2004: 52% Bush
2012: Obama led by 2%

20
Q

Gender gap

A

12/13 last presidential elections women gave much more support to D
2012: Obama lost men by 7%, won women by 11%

21
Q

Name two specific incidents during the 2012 elections that significantly impacted the female vote

A 
Romney dismissive "binders full of women"
Todd Akin (Missouri cand) "legitimate rape"
22
Q

Importance of young voters in elections

A

2008: 66% Obama, highest in over 40 years
2012: 60% Obama, 19% electorate

23
Q

Deep blue region

A

Solid Northeast
2008/2012: every state voted D
But declining population

24
Q

Importance of population density in presidential elections

A

Dense = D, Sparse= R
10/11 last elections party who won suburbs won election
2012: Obama 11/15 largest cities

25
Q

Candidate-centric voting

A

Increasing so in media dominated age

2004: Gore wooden, Kerry elitist
2008: McCain old and grumpy
2012: Romney poor communicator and out of touch

26
Q

Issue-centric voting

A

1992: Clinton “It’s the economy, stupid!”
2004: moral values
2008: economy and change
- 2/3 economy most important (Obama 9% lead)

27
Q

Right Track/Wrong Track Perception

A

2012: Obama defied (46% right v 52% wrong)
2010: 62% wrong track
- R won House

28
Q

Performance Voting

A

Rational Choice Theory
Punish poor performance, 1992: Bush
Reward good performance: 1996: Clinton

29
Q

2012 presidential campaign

A

D had campaign infrastructure ready in advance
D GOTV
96% AA in OH voted Obama
60% Latinos in FL

30
Q

2008 presidential campaign

A

First D to win VA since 1964
Obama sound judgment/cool
66% Biden qualified, 38% Palin
McCain 72 years old

31
Q

Lowest ever turnout

A

1996: Clinton v Dole 51.4%

32
Q

Highest ever turnout

A

63% in 1960

33
Q

2000 election turnout

A

54.3% Bush v Gore

Unexciting

34
Q

2004 election turnout

A

60.1%
Iraq
D angry about 2000

35
Q

2008 election turnout

A

61.7%
Obama effect
First presidential election where convenience voting was readily available
Latino/AA turnout 2% increase

36
Q

2010 election turnout

A

42% (highest in midterm)
First time since 1930s that more R than D voted in primaries
Angry about Obamacare, stimulus etc
R turnout highest since 1970

37
Q

2014 election turnout

A

37%
Young only 13% of electorate (-6 2012)
AA 12%
Latino 8%

38
Q

Difference in primary participation

A

1967: 12m
2008: 58m

39
Q

Turnout by state

A 
New Hampshire (early): 53%
Louisiana (late): 17%
40
Q

Reasons for turnout decrease

A 
Disillusionment
Apathy/hapathy
Narrow choice
Negative campaigning
Partisan dealignment
41
Q

1972 split-ticket voting

A

CRA
Conservatives vote Nixon and D Congress
44% of CDs split

42
Q

1984 split-ticket voting

A

44%
“Reagan Democrats”
Resorting of parties taking place
More polarised

43
Q

2008 split-ticket voting

A

19% - second lowest since 1952
83 split CDs
34 “Obama Republican”

44
Q

2012 split-ticket voting

A

6%
26 CDs
Romney wins 93% R CDs
Obama wins 96% D CDs

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