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Politics Uk > Voting Behaviour & Media > Flashcards

Voting Behaviour & Media Flashcards

1
Q

How did the 1979 election change the composition of the HoC

A

Labour down 62, Conservatives up 50
Con majority of 43
No small parties
Scottish National Party lost 9 of 11 seats (due devolution being non issue)

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2
Q

How was the political system affected by the 1979 election

A

Move from labour govt with no majority to Con govt with comfortable majority
First female PM

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3
Q

what did the public think the main issues were in 1979 (4)

A

Public sector strikes 1978/9
Labour punished for not controlling unions
Economy in bad shape (high inflation- although falling at election)
Free markets v state control big issue

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4
Q

1979 Main influences on outcome of election

A

Lab ran bad election campaign implying a woman should not be elected PM
Lab not trusted on the economy
Lab disunited moderates v left
Con policy of home ownership popular
Con had advantage due to shrinking working class and expanding middle class

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5
Q

1979 how was government affected by election outcome

A

UK moved from indecisive weak govt with tiny majority to one with working majority
Marked start of 18 years of Con govt
Bulk of electorate in centre or right on most issues

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6
Q

Summary of 1997 election

A

Landslide victory for Blair’s Labour Party

Lib Dem’s made breakthrough winning 46 seats

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7
Q

How did the outcome of the 1997 election affect the make up of the HoC

A

Cons lost 178 seats, Lab gained 145
Lib Dem gained 28
Lab vote risen by 8.8% and Con vote declined by 11.2% since 1987
43% of the vote converted into 63% of seats - the effect of the electoral system exaggerated the scale of the labour win

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8
Q

1997 Main issues (4)

A

Cons blamed for 1990’s recession
NHS considered to be in decline
Education funding and standards falling
Crime was high

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9
Q

1997 Main influences on the outcome

A 
Personalities - Blair seen as charismatic and dynamic whereas Major seen as dull and uninspiring
Blair appealed to growing middle class with 3rd way policies - got rid of reputation for being too socialist and reckless with public money
Voters wanted a change
Media strongly supported lab
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10
Q

1997 how was political system affected by outcome

A

Beginning of 13 years of lab govt (won 3 elections)
Lab won huge majority which made massive social, economic and constitutional reform possible
Start of 3 party system

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11
Q

How did the 2010 election alter the composition of the HoC

A

Dramatic outcome - first hung parliament since 1974
Lib Dem’s continued resurgence winning 57 seats (23% vote)
Con won 36.1% Lib Dem won 23% so coalition govt had 59.1% support

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12
Q

How was the political landscape changed by the 2010 election

A

More than previously this was a leadership election
Clear electorate had become more volatile
Because of volatility opinion polls proved inaccurate
Turnout increased from below 60% in 2005 to 65%

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13
Q

In 2010 what did the public think were the main issues surrounding the election

A

Almost a one issue election - economy post financial crisis of 2008
Lab blamed for state of economy
Growth in govt debt resurrected fears of 1970’s “tax and spend”
Key issue was spend way out of crisis (lab) or austerity (con)

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14
Q

What is austerity

A

Higher taxes and lower govt spending

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15
Q

2010 main influences on the outcome (4)

A

Leadership key - PM Gordon Brown regarded as weak and dull. David Cameron seen as fresh face and more decisive
Spectre of coalition between lab and SNP raised in media and as this was unpopular with voters many switched to Cons to stop it
Opinion polls had pointed to a hung parliament may have influenced some voters to change their vote
Relentless anti G.Brown press

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16
Q

2010 how was the political system affected by the outcome

A

Lab failed to form a coalition with Lib Dem or SNP so Con invited to join with Lib Dem
There followed 5 years of problematic, fragile coalition govt
UK seemed to move further towards 3 party system

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17
Q

2017 main features of the outcome (6)

A

Extraordinary election. Early predictions of Con landslide dispelled in last 2 weeks of campaign
Hung parliament Con largest party but without overall majority
Con increased vote share but lost seats, lab vote rose 10% and gained seats
Lib Dem revival did not happen
UKIP lost most of its vote share and its one seat, greens faltered and SNP lost seats in Scotland
Reputation of Jeremy Corbin enhanced but Theresa May’s was damaged
In order to govern Con reached a “confidence and supply” agreement with DUP (10 seats) to give them an overall majority. Grant of £1billion was awarded to the province in return for DUP support

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18
Q

What is a confidence and supply agreement

A

Confidence refers to the ability of the gov to retain the confidence of the majority of MPs tested occasionally in a vote of no confidence
Supply refers to the ability fo the government to have its financial plans (budget) approved by HoC each year

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19
Q

After the 2017 election what were the main changes to the political landscape

A

UKIP ceased to be force in UK politics
SNP lost dominance in Scotland - issue of Scottish Independence put on back burner
Cons having enjoyed a 12 seat majority in 2015 became a minority govt despite increasing their vote share by 5.5%
Lab increased vote share by 9.6%

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20
Q

2017 Main issues(3)

A

Clearest choice between parties since ideology driven election of 1983. Lab increasingly left wing and Con centre right
Cons campaigned on strong leadership and ability to conclude brexit negotiations - “strong and stable”
Lab campaigned on radical policies as nationalisation of railways, Royal Mail and water, rises in taxation on wealthy and increases in expenditure in health and education(abolition of student loans and free nursery care)

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21
Q

2017 main influences on the outcome (4)

A

Jeremy Corbyn enjoyed a successful campaign raising his profile (peaking at Glastonbury) in contrast to Theresa May who was damaged (EVERYTHING went wrong)
Young voted in larger numbers than before - boosting labour
Former UKIP voters gave their vote to one of the 2 main parties and similarly 21 SNP seats won by either Con or Lab
Majority of press still Con but lab used social media a lot to thwart the opposition in the national press

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22
Q

2017 how was the political system affected by the outcome

A

Hung parliament

Minority con govt took over supported by 10 MPs from DUP giving it a working majority on key votes

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23
Q

In which election did the opinion polls predict a hung parliament but one party won outright with small majority

A

2015

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24
Q

In which election did the Lib Dem vote collapse with them loosing most of their seats

A

2015

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25
Q

In which election did the sitting PM have a poor media image contributing to his party losing power after many years in office

A

2010

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26
Q

The Sun newspaper claimed in a headline that it had won the election for the Cons

A

1992

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27
Q

In which election did the party manifestos play a big role

A

2017

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28
Q

What is a manifesto

A

A set of commitments produced by each party at the start of the election campaign

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29
Q

What is a mandate

A

The authority granted by the people at elections, to a party which will form the govt. The newly elected govt has the authority to carry out its proposals

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30
Q

What are the key factors in an election campaign which may affect the outcome

A

Manifesto - normally little impact but in 2017 lab manifesto v popular and led to narrowing in gap in polls
Leadership debates - usually bad for incumbent PM so they never want them! 2010 impressive performance by Nick Clegg “i agree with Nick” contrasted with weak performance by Gordon Brown. 2015 David Cameron outperformed Ed Milband and because usually harder for incumbent to do well this underlined publics fear that Milband not up to job of PM
Press - influential if it shows a distinct bias. Press definitely contributed to lab loss in 2015 and 1992 “It’s the Sun wot won it”
Issues can be favourable or unfavourable to the parties - evidence suggests issues reinforce existing voting intentions rather than changing them

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31
Q

What is the difference between class and income levels

A

Class - background and lifestyle
Income - literally amount of money you are paid.
These may not coincide

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32
Q

Class and voting stats

A

AB voting Cons has declined from 78% in 1964 to 43% in 2017
DE voting labour has changed up and down from 64% in 1964 to 59% in 2017 with the lowest being in 2010 (40%) and 2015 (41%)
Interesting to know figures for 2019 election???

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33
Q

Demographic factors affecting voting

A

Age - this does have a big impact on voting intentions
Gender - little impact
Ethnicity - major predictor of voting intention
Region - pretty big impact

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34
Q

How does gender affect voting intentions

A

Virtually no difference between sexes though there is a slight tendency for women to favour labour

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35
Q

How does age affect voting intentions

A

This is a key factor.
Older voters favour the Conservatives (and UKIP) very significantly
Young voters have a labour bias (also Green Party) or SNP if applicable

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36
Q

How does Ethnicity influence voting intentions

A

This is a significant factor although there are signs that it is weakening
Traditionally biased towards labour
More established immigrant groups are showing signs of moving towards the Conservative party

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37
Q

How does class influence voting intentions

A

Class used to be the most important determinant of voting but is slowly becoming less important

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38
Q

Region

A

There are wide regional variations in voting patterns
Scotland is remarkable with SNP having almost complete dominance
South of England is solidly conservative
UKIP made big inroads into labour heartlands in the north and with the demise of UKIP in 2019 many parts of this “red wall” fell to the conservatives
Labour tend to dominate in the big cities and also student towns/cities (Canterbury)

39
Q

What does electoral heartland mean

A

An area where only one party wins seats

40
Q

Which party dominates in the southwest

A

Conservative (lib dems used to be popular here as well)

41
Q

Which party dominates voting in the North East of England

A

Traditionally labour although the 2019 election result showed support going to the Cons. Whether this is a one off post Brexit bounce for the cons has yet to be shown

42
Q

Which party dominates in Wales

A

Labour

43
Q

Which party dominates in Northern Ireland

A

The Democratic Union Party

44
Q

Which party dominates in Scotland

A

SNP

45
Q

Which demographic group is most likely to vote green

A

The young

46
Q

Which age group is biased towards the conservatives

A

65+

47
Q

Which social class is most likely to vote UKIP

A

DE

48
Q

Which demographic group used to be most likely to vote labour but now favours cons

A

C2 (skilled working class - junior managerial roles etc)

49
Q

Which age group has the lowest election turnout figures

A

18-34

50
Q

What is the typical voting behaviour of Londoners

A

Labour 44%

51
Q

What is the typical voting behaviour of black and ethnic minorities

A

Labour - 70% in 1997, 65% in 2017

52
Q

What is the voting behaviour of the 18-24 age group

A

Labour or greens

53
Q

What is the voting behaviour of people living in rural south of England

A

Cons

54
Q

What percentage of 18-24 year olds voted labour/con in 1979 and 2017

A

1979 41 % lab 42% con

2017 67% lab 18% con

55
Q

What is class dealingnment

A

An increasing tendency for people to disassociate themselves room one particular class and its dominant political attitudes

56
Q

What is partisan dealignment

A

People who, in the past, identified themselves closely with one particular party are increasingly seeing themselves as independent of any such attachment

57
Q

What is Valence and what 4 things make up the belief

A

Valence is a belief among voters that a party is competent and is well led.
Often cited as the key factor in voting behaviour
Ignores specific policies and refers to the image of the party in voter’s minds
1)governing competency
2) economic competence
3) unity
4) are leaders admired and trusted

58
Q

What is governing competency

A

Makes up part of valence
This is a general feeling among voters that a party is either very competent in governing or much less competent.
Refers largely to sound economic policies, sensible foreign policy and decisiveness in office
Problem for labour in 2010 (post financial crisis) and Lib Dem’s in 2015 (post coalition - viewed by supporters as untrustworthy

59
Q

Which party do voters think as more economic competent

A

Labour lost confidence after the strikes of the 1970’s and then again after the financial crisis of 2008
Cons have a good reputation on the economy which has helped them most recently in 2017 (when everything else was going wrong!)

60
Q

Why is a united party important

A

Unity is part of valence
Voters trust united parties
Cons lost elections in 2001 and 2005 as party was divided
Also a problem for labour in 1983 and 2017

61
Q

Why is it important that leaders of parties are trusted and admired and give examples

A

Makes up part of valence
2010 Nick Clegg was liked and respected and Lib Dem’s did well
2015 After Lib Dem’s supported cons in raising of student fees he lost trust of many of his voters (lots of them students) and he was heavily defeated. He is ok with it as he now works for Facebook and makes millions of pounds
2010-2015 Ed miliband led labour and the lack of respect / ridicule was major reason for their defeat
2017 Theresa May was more trusted than Jeremy Corbyn

62
Q

What is rational choice

A

This is the identification of salient issues at stake in the election

63
Q

What are the salient issues in ALL general elections

A 
Economy
NHS
Education
Immigration
Trends in crime
64
Q

Name some salient points which were specific to individual elections

A

2015 Brexit
2017 what sort of deal the uk would get after Brexit
2017 the future of the uk nuclear capability (corbyn refused to answer if he would order a nuclear strike if the UK came under attack)

65
Q

Name some other factors that might be salient in an election

A

Problems in social care
How much regulation or public ownership there should be of business
Distribution of the tax burden
How much protection there should be for workers
Increasingly cancel culture

66
Q

What is issue voting

A

Similar to rational choice but voters are concentrating on one single issue / group of related issues

Like rational choice voters compare pros and cons of supporting a party

Influenced by manifesto - although few voters actually read them

67
Q

What are the two types of issue voting and give examples

A

Instrumental voting - what the voter thinks will be best in THEIR OWN INTERESTS eg will this party reduce my taxes/ pay me more benefits

Expressive voting - when the voter thinks not of themselves but of the good of the whole community eg which party has best environmental policies or foreign policy

68
Q

Why is turnout important

A

The level can influence an election because different demographic groups usually demonstrate different turnout levels

69
Q

Which groups are more likely to turnout to vote

A

Conservative voters eg
Over 65s
Higher income voters

70
Q

Which groups are less likely to turnout to vote and why

A

The young who tend to be more left wing
Main reason for not voting is apathy or disillusion (all main parties are the same, nothing ever changes whichever party gets in and because of the system smaller parties can’t get a look in)

71
Q

Name some party leaders and the qualities associated with them

A

Record in office - Mrs T (1979-1987 - most of her time as leader)
Strong leader - Mrs T
Compassion - John Major (1990-1992 - specific years only)
Decisiveness - Tony Blair pre Iraq war
Clear Vision - Tony Blair or Nicola Sturgeon
Communication Skills - David Cameron
Populist appeal - Nigel Farage

72
Q

What is a general term for the party image and competence as it affects voting support

A

Valence

73
Q

What is the increasing tendency for people not to consider themselves part of a particular social class or to adopt the typical attitudes with that class

A

Class disalignment

74
Q

What is the increasing tendency for people not to consider themselves closely attached to one particular party and its policies

A

Partisan dealignment

75
Q

What is the name given to the idea that a party that winds an election has the democratic authority to carry out is manifesto commitments

A

Mandate

76
Q

Which newspapers support labour

A

The mirror

The guardian

77
Q

Which newspapers have the largest circulation and which party do they support

A

The sun - 1.6 million - cons
The express - 1.5 million - cons
The mirror - 700K - lab

78
Q

What are the key issues in press influence

A

Setting the agenda
Image of leaders - ed Milband and his bacon sandwich / William Hague and his baseball cap
Image of the parties as a whole (valence) which may affect floating voters
Politicians believe newspapers have more influence than research suggests which influences their behaviour / policy choices
UK has free speech so bias is inevitable
Research suggests that whilst newspapers reinforce political attitudes they rarely change them
Broadcast media is not allowed to show any political bias and there is no evidence that they influence opinion
Social media allows free speech so much less impartial but overwhelming amount of opinions

79
Q

Which newspapers are less strongly aligned to political parties

A

The Times
The Financial Times
The independent

They are all somewhat conservative/centrist

80
Q

What are the main issues with opinion polls and give some specific examples

A

Media and politicians pay a lot of attention to them
In recent elections they have been inaccurate failing to predict cons victory in 2015, brexit in 2016 and hung parliament in 2017
Voters may adjust their intentions according to what the polls say eg in 2015 many voters feared an alliance between labour and SNP would lead to another referendum on independence in Scotland so they did not vote labour
In 2016 referendum some voters voted brexit as a “protest” vote thinking that as polls showed remain was bound to win their vote would not matter
If polls show clear result predicted then this may suppress turnout
Parties may adjust policies as a result of poll findings despite polling inaccuracy

81
Q

Reasons for banning opinion polls in run up to elections

A

They may influence the way people vote
They have proved inaccurate so may mislead the public
Politicians should not be slaves to changing public opinion as shown in polls

82
Q

Reasons why we should NOT ban opinion polls in the run up to an election

A

It would infringe the principle of freedom of expression
If they are banned they will become available privately to organisations that can afford to pay for them
Polls give valuable information about people’s attitudes which can guide politicians
They would still be published abroad and people could access through the internet

83
Q

Are opinion polls always wrong

A

No they usually build in a tolerance of around 3-4% which means when you factor that in they are often accurate

84
Q

What is quota sampling

A

A sample which represents a population

85
Q

What is random sampling

A

Research using a sample that is an Unbiased representation of the total population

86
Q

What is the margin of error

A

The tolerance build into opinion polls so most have 3-4% built in either way
So 52% v 48% with a 4% margin of error means that results could be anywhere from 56% v 42% to 46 % v 54%.
the larger the margin of error the less one should trust the polls.

87
Q

If polls forecast a landslide victory what might be the result

A

People may not vote for that party as they think “they will get in even without my vote” or they may not want one party to be too powerful

88
Q

If polls predict a hung parliament what might happen

A

People will vote tactically and usually to vote for the party which is more likely to win as in the uk people not keen on coalition govt

89
Q

If polls predict a close result what might happen

A

Turnout may increase
People may vote tactically eg a cons voter in a strong labour ward may decide to vote Lib Dem instead of con if one year the polls show that lab and Lib Dem’s are close - just to stop lab winning

90
Q

If the polls predict that an extreme right wing party will do well

A

They may be more inclined to vote con

91
Q

If the polls predict an extreme left wing party might do well

A

They might be tempted to vote Lib Dem

92
Q

What factors influence the outcome of an election

A

Valence issues
Leadership factors
Economic factors
Long term changes in social factors

93
Q

What factors influence the outcome of an election

A

Valence issues
Leadership factors
Economic factors
Long term changes in social factors

Politics Uk (3 decks)

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