Voting Behaviour and Turnout Flashcards
Define Socialisation
The process through which an individual learns and develops political views from their family, friends, colleagues and community
What is partisan allignment?
Where certain social groups support a particular party over a long period of time
How many Americans identified as independent in Janurary 2014 and why was it significant?
42% said they did not identify with a political party which was a record high
What is partisan realignment?
A significant shift in partisan alignment of social groups from one party to another
What is partisan dealignment?
When large numbers stop consistently supporting a political party
How did the Great depression trigger a political realignment?
Political parties supported many different solutions and many voters changed which political party they supported
Why did the new deal coalition break down?
It was a very diverse group from white protestants to immigrants
What was the new coalition?
ethnic and religious minoirties realigned to support the Democrats
Why was there another realignment in the 60s and 70s?
There were issues such as civil rights, the vietnamese war, welfare and abortion
Since the 1980s which groups have aligned with the Republican party?
- white
- protestants
- elderly
- higher incomes
Since the 1980s which group have alligned with the Democratic party?
- African-Americans
- Hispanics
- Jewish
- Catholics
- Athiests
- Youth
- Lower incomes
Why does the media now talk about red and blue states?
The republicans (reds) have control of the south and the Democrats (blues) have control of the East and West coasts. There is a clear distinction between liberal and conservative social/fiscal policy.
What was the southern strategy?
When the republican party targeted their policy at people living in the south to try and gain support
What percent of white voters did the republicans win in 2008 and 2012?
- John McCain 2008 90%
- Mitt Romney 2012 89%
What percent of African-Americans voted for the Democrats in 1996 and 2008?
- 1996 Clinton won 97%
- 2008 Obama won 95%
Why is it difficualt to allign the Hispanic voters?
They are a broad group from lots of different ideological and cultural backgrounds so don’t all have the same preferences
Who had the Hispanic vote between 1988-2012?
The democrats
What did Chris Kauthammer say about the Hispanic vote?
They are natural Republican due to religion and social conservatism however they are Democratic due to Immigration policies
Why are the Jewish population democrats?
- Support higher taxes, pro-choice and support gay marriage
- They had backgrounds in socialis labour when they arrived in the early 20th century
Who was the first Catholic president?
John F Kennedy in 1960
How much support did JFK receive from the Catholics?
80%
Why did Catholic support change to Republican over the 60s?
Due to social issues such as abortion going against their religion
What are the two types of Catholic voters?
- Mainline - bible is interpreted
- Evangelical - the bible is the infaliable word of god
Where did the protestant vote go in 1976?
Around 50% of evangelical voters supported Carter (Democrats)
When was the moral majority set up and why?
- 1979
- A pressure group set up to create conservative evangelical pressure
Why did the Protestants support Reagan in 1980?
- wanted to drop the equal rights ammendment
- support for school prayers
- right to life ammendment
What are the differences between younger and older voters?
- younger are more liberal e.g. gay marriage, drugs, immigration, role of federal government, less religious
- 58% 18-29 year old voters are white
- 76% voters over 30 are white
Why does the age gap have more to do with generational differences?
- Generation X (1965-1980) grew up under Reagan so therefore they were more influenced by conservative ideas
- Millenials (after 1980) grew up under Clinton and were later influenced by Bush so it was more liberal
How are women more likely to vote?
- government intervention in the economy, welfare and affirmative action
- right to abortion, gay marriage, gun regulation, immigration reform and healthcare reforms
- less supportive of war and military intervention
What demographic are married voters more likely to be apart of?
- White
- High income
- Older
- Religious
What was the percent share of voters with different incomes in 2012?
**Obama **
65% voters who earned under $30,000
42% voters who earned over $250,000
Romney
35% voters who earned under $30,000
55% voters who earned over $250,000
Why does income effect party alignment?
- Income effects the economic priorities of people
- minorities tend to be from lower incomes
What is the mostly strongly alligned part of America with a particular political party?
The solid south strongly supports the Republicans
What is the difference between rural and urban voters?
Rural voters tend to vote Republican whereas urban areas are more Democratic
What is the rational choice model of voting?
Voters wil vote on a rational choice of self-interest and can be influenced by peers and social groups
How many debates are held before a presidential election?
- x3 90 minute debates between presidential candidates
- x1 90 minute debate between vice-presidential candidates
What lessons were taken from the TV debates between Nixon and Kennedy?
- 1960 was the first televised debate
- Radio listeners believed Nixon had one but watchers believed JFK had won
- style as important as substance
- the challenger seems more legitimate but the incumbent looks like a normal politician
How much did Ford’s debate have on the 1976 election?
- Ford made an error of saying there was no soviet domination of eastern europe eventhough there clearly was
- media picked up on this and he was severly criticised
- Carter’s lead dropped rather than Ford’s
How much importance did Reagan’s performance have on the 1980 election?
- highlighted the importance of catchphrases “here you go again”
- good closing speech “are you better off now than you were 4 years ago
- increased his vote share and won
What was unique about the 1992 debate?
- There was 3 candidates
- Bush, Clinton and Perot
- Perot deemed to win but the polls didn’t change as it was a two party system
Why were the 2000 debates significant?
- short-term factors were prominent
- Gore kept interrupting and was deemed as rude
- caused him to drop in the polls
What happened in the 2012 debates?
- Obama had done well in 2008 however appeared tired and bored
- Romney was well prepared and exposed the flaws of the president
- Romney won however this faded quickly
Why do debates only have a limited impact on the election eventhough they’re watched by millions of Americans?
- They occur late in the campaign so less than 10% of voters are still swayed as most make up their mind in September/October
- Most undecided voters live in safe seats
What are the different types of campaign ads used to effect voters?
- positive
- negative
What is an example of a negative campaign ad?
- Willy Horton
- Against crime
- Willy Horton was a black criminal against white victims
What is an example of a positive campaign ad?
Reagan’s stronger better prouder campaign
Why did the Obama campaign have a head start in buying TV ad time in 2012?
During the summer Obama could buy air time for ads attacking Romney in swing states however Romney was prevented from doing this due to federal election laws meaning he couldn’t spread campaign funds until nominated
What problems did Romney experience in appealing to voters in 2012?
- Conservatives were unconvinced he was a true conservative
- centrists were unsure after his performance in the primaries
- he was personally wealthy and was pressured to expose his tax returns as 2/3 of voters believed he was not paying his fair share
What was the October surprise of 2012 and how did it influence the election?
Hurrican sandy meant TV coverage was taken away from Romney and given to the President whilst he was helping victims
What was the september surprise in 2012 and how did it influence the election?
Mother Jones Magazine released a video of Romney at a $50,000 a plate charity meal talking about how he didn’t care about ‘people who dont help themselves’ e.g. low income, which was half the population
How did the economy influence the 2012 election, particuarly in swing states?
- 60% voters said the economy was the most important issue
- no incumbent president since Franklin D Roosevelt had been re-elected when unemployment was over 8%
- After 43 months of unemployment being over 8%, it finally went down in October 2012
Who was blamed for the unemployment for being over 8%?
- 53% blamed Bush
- 38% blamed Obama
How many offices were opened in Ohio during Obama’s 2012 campaign?
151
How many volunteers were working in Ohio during Obama’s 2012 campaign?
32,854
How did Obama run his 2012 campaign?
- invested heavily in technology, analytics, mathematicians, coders and engineers
- project Narwhal
What was project Narwhal?
A database used to target specific voters
What is VAP?
Voting age population
What was VEP?
Voting eligible population
What was VEP?
Voting eligible population
What was VAP and VEP turnout in 2012?
- VAP - 53.6%
- VEP - 57.5%
Why does the separation of power make accountability more difficult?
If voters are unhappy with the federal government but one party controls the presidency and the opposing party controls congress (a divided government), it is hard to know who to hold accountable for actions
What is political effiancy?
How much effect voters believe they have on a political system
What is political effiancy?
How much effect voters believe they have on a political system
Why has it been argued that US voters have low levels of political effiancy?
- FPTP - winner takes all means very few competitive races and lots of wasted votes
- 7/10 of the top turnout states were swing states
- increating cost of elections
- negative attack ads
- lack of choice
Why might some Americans have voter fatigue?
- Lots of elections
- Presidential every 4 years
- Congressional every 2 years
- State and local in odd numbers
Why might tuesday voting affect turnout?
- polls open 7am to 8pm
- some find it difficult to get away from work and family committments
Who is included in the unemployment rate?
The amount of people in the labor force that are actively looking for work
How have registration rules been used in the past to block certain people from voting?
- after 15th ammendment, which banned states from denying vote due to race, southern states introduced registration rules to block African-Americans from voting
- Grandfather clause
- Literacy test
- Residency requirement
- Poll tax
What is the Grandfather clause?
Had to prove that grandfather/father had voted before the ammendment
What is the literacy test?
Voters had to explain part of the constitution
What was the residency requirement?
Had to have lived in the district for a certain amount of time
What is a poll tax?
Fees to vote
What efforts have been made to improve voter registration?
- 1965 voting rights act
- 1993 national voter registration act
- 2000 help America vote act
What was the 1993 national voter registration act?
allow registration at different public offices
What was the 1993 national voter registration act?
allow registration at different public offices
What was the 2000 Help America vote act?
Elligible voters that weren’t registered were put onto a provisional ballot and after the election their elligibility was determined
Why does registration remain difficult in some states?
- there are pre-election registration deadlines of 25-30 days before the election
- most states require voters to re-register if they move house
Why might the Shelby County vs Holder decision impact voter registration?
Would require states to get federal approval for any election reforms
What is differential turnout/abstention?
Different levels of turnout or abstention or different social groups
What is differential turnout/abstention?
Different levels of turnout or abstention or different social groups
How has turnout changed in recent presidential elections?
- 2008 African American voter levels reached record levels (65%) due to the excitement of Obama candidacy
- 2000 youth vote increased to 40% but still low as higher levels of education is more unlikely
- Wealthy are more likely to vote as they can afford to have time of work
Who do youth and low income vote for?
They tend to vote for the Democrats
How does the electorate vary between mid-terms and presidential elections?
In 2008 the turnout for the presidential election was 62% however in 2010 the turnout for the mid-terms was 41%
Why does the difference in voter turnout between congressional and presidential elections help the Republican party?
Younger and minority voters don’t tend to vote in midterms so republicans excel
What are GOVT campaigns?
- door to door campaigning
- ringing voters
How has the US population and electorate changed in recent decades?
Different social groups are growing at different speeds and white make up than a smaller amount of the population than they did before where as african-american, asian and hispanic populations have increased
How might changes in population might influence future elections?
There will be a change in safe seats.
e.g. Texas’ largest ethnic is expected to be Hispanic within the next decade which would replace the white majority. This would cause it to potentially no longer be a safe seat for the Republicans
What is battleground texas?
The aim of registering as many Hispanic voters as possible to allow a potential swing to the Democrats
What was the southern strategy and why is it becoming an issue?
It was a strategy by the Republicans to aim their policy at the white population as they were the majority however if this doesn’t change, the rate other ethnic groups are increasing at will affect their electorate success.
