Voting behaviour and the role of the media Flashcards
Where do the conservatives typically win?
The Conservatives have continued to do well in areas that are predominantly white, rural or suburban and socially conservative.
Since 2005, where have labour supported
Labour Party support has contracted to industrial urban areas in south Wales, the industrial north and London.
voting preferences in the home counties
Predominantly Conservative
Urban areas now vs 1800s
Urban areas are now increasingly Labour strongholds and less inclined to vote Conservative, compared to the period before the 1980s.
Traditional british society
- upper class — landowners (the nobility)
- middle class — property owners
- working class — labourers
Class A
Higher managerial and professional workers, such as business owners and judges
Class B
Middle managers and professionals, such as store managers, teachers and lawyers
Class C1
Clerical workers, such as office clerks and secretaries
Class C2
Skilled manual workers, such as builders, electricians and plumbers
Class D
Semi-skilled and unskilled workers, such as day labourers and factory workers
Class E
The unemployed, pensioners and those unable to work
1980s - Class
Until the 1980s, class often determined how a person would vote. This is known as class voting. Classes A, B and C1 would usually be described as middle class and tended to vote Conservative. Classes C2, D and, to a large extent, E would be described as working class and tended to vote Labour.
what class voting meant for parties
This meant each party had a set of core voters from a distinct social class, reflecting the fact that economic factors, such as employment and inflation, were the top concern of many people.
Class dealignment
Where people no longer vote according to their social class.
Class voting
The idea that people will vote for a party based on the economic interests of their class.
Core voter
Any group of voters who will loyally vote for a party, regardless of any personal issues.
Swing voters
Voters who are not loyal to a party and are therefore open to persuasion.
Partisan dealignment
The idea that people are less committed or loyal to one particular party.
Social class
A way of categorising people based on their status in society, usually by occupation or income.
What has changing attitudes led to
class dealignment which has seen people less likely to vote according to their class.
What has the wider range of issues led to
This widening of the issues considered important by the electorate has also led to partisan dealignment, with voters less likely to be loyal to one party and taking into consideration multiple issues before casting their vote. This in turn has led to an increase in floating (swing) voters.
Weakening of the class system and it’s impact on the parties
The weakening of the class system across the UK has seen the emergence of a more diverse set of political struggles between the parties, particularly at election time.
Left behind voters
This is a term used to identify a group of voters who feel left behind by the social and economic reforms that have occurred in the UK over the past 50 years and who believe that their lives and the country have changed for the worse. They tend to be economically left-wing but culturally right-wing.
Traditional gender votes
Traditionally, women are believed to favour the Conservatives, with Labour only winning a larger share of the female vote under Tony Blair.
Did gender make a difference in the 2015 general election
No
On most issues, there is little difference in opinion between men and women. The exceptions to this are:
- foreign intervention (war)
- nuclear power
- nuclear weapons
What issues do women prioritise compared to men
Women also tend to prioritise health and education, whereas men tend to prioritise foreign affairs and taxation.
Age plays two significant roles in the way UK voters cast their votes:
- Younger voters lean left, while older voters lean right.
- The older the voter, the more likely they are to vote.
age in voting
- The younger the voter, the less likely they are to vote.
- Britain’s ageing population means the elderly population is growing as a percentage of the total population.
Why do Labour do worse than expected
This means there are more older people and they are more likely to vote. Social platforms and online polling tend to focus on the young, which distorts the reality of what happens in the polling stations and might explain why the Labour Party often does worse than expected while the Conservative Party quite often does better.
How have parties changed to the significance of ages
By changing policies
Ethicity
As with age, race seems to point to a clear partisan divide in the UK, with white voters leaning more to the right and ethnic minority voters leaning more to the left.
Why do ethnic minorities tend to favour Labour
- The legacy of anti-minority campaigning by the Conservative Party, such
as Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech (1968), where he criticised the Labour government’s immigration and anti-discrimination legislation, and Norman Tebbit’s ‘Cricket test’ (1990), where he criticised South Asian and Caribbean immigrants for their lack of loyalty to the England cricket team. - The concentration of many ethnic minority groups into industrial urban centres, such as London, Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Bradford.
What is the white population in the UK?
82%
Social Capital
The theory that politics requires cultural and moral resources to engage the people and make them feel part of society. As such, citizens have certain responsibilities and duties to make society work effectively.
Theory about the decline in voter turnout
- A decline in social capital means that people are less inclined to feel they are part of society.
- Declining standards in education mean people are less aware of their civic responsibilities.
- The first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system alienates the electorate because the number of seats won does not accurately reflect the number of votes received by a party.
- Partisan dealignment means people are less motivated to vote.
- An increase in ethnic minority citizens, who are less likely to vote, might explain a decline in turnout.
- Since the resignation of Thatcher in 1990, the Conservative and Labour parties have reached a consensus on several key issues. This post-Thatcher consensus has meant there is less real choice between the main parties.
- The growth in issues and parties has made elections less clear cut and more difficult to understand.
- Sleaze and a negative culture spread by the media have turned people away from politics.
Reasons why the theory on voter turnout is not convinving
- There has been a growth in rights culture and media engagement.
- Citizenship lessons mean citizens are better educated than ever before.
- An alternative voting system was rejected in a referendum vote in 2011 and turnout is even lower in UK elections which use other voting systems.
- Party loyalty may have declined but people still engage through pressure groups and campaigns, yet they do not vote in elections.
- There has been an increase in the number of ethnic minorities in the UK but the increase began as far back as the 1950s and does not explain the scale of the fall in turnout since 1992.
- The Labour Party moved further left under Gordon Brown and then Ed Miliband, making more of a clear distinction between the two main parties.
- People tend to cast their vote on the one or two issues that mean the most to them, so the fact that there are more issues is not relevant.
- Scandals and sleaze have both existed in politics for many years. Turnout was not damaged by the scandal of the Profumo affair in the 1960s and was still at 71.4% in 1997, after 5 years of sleaze reporting.
Labour’s voting problem
The D and E social classes, young voters and ethnic minorities tend to vote in favour of Labour by substantial margins. However, these groups are the smallest and least likely to vote. Having lost its formerly dominant position in Scotland, as well as hundreds of thousands of votes across England and Wales to UKIP, the party needs to find a way to increase support from other groups without losing the support it currently holds.
three key theories which explain how individuals make their electoral choices:
- rational choice theory
- issue voting
- economic or valence issues
Rational choice theory
Rational choice theory assumes that voters will make a rational, or logical, judgement based on what is in their own best interests. In an ideal version, voters will be fully informed about the various options and will choose the option that is best for them. By aggregating these views, the winning verdict will reflect what is best for society as a whole. The assumption here is that a voter will conduct a cost/benefit analysis of all options and make their choice accordingly.
Issue voting
Where issue voting takes place, voters place one issue above all others and cast their vote based on that issue. They judge a party or candidate by their position on the issue and choose the one that most closely reflects their own opinion. This can mean they vote for a candidate whose other policies would be to their detriment.
Economic or valence issues
A valence issue is one where voters share a common preference (i.e. the desire for the country to be economically prosperous). In this theory, everyone wants a prosperous and successful economy, so no one will vote against a candidate who promises to improve the economy. Instead, they cast their vote based on who they believe is best placed to deliver a strong and successful economy. This idea is known as governing competency. Politicians will be rewarded if they deliver a strong economy but will be punished at the polls if the economy fails.
Governing competency
The perceived ability of the government, or opposition, to manage the affairs of the country well.
Factors affecting individual voting
- Policies
- Key issues
- Performance in offcie
- Leadership
- Image
- Tactical voting
What has the rise of partisan dealignment done to voters ?
Voters think more individually about their votes
Policies
Voters consider the policies presented in the party manifestos and make a decision based on which set of policies suits them best. This is rational choice theory in action.
Key issues
Party campaigns increasingly focus on a clear message about one issue they think will win them the election because voters increasingly cast their vote based on the issue that is most important to them.
Performance in office
Using the economic and valence issues theory, voters tend to simplify the election into a referendum on the current government. If the economy does well, the government is rewarded with another term; if the economy does badly, the government is removed and the opposition is given a chance to govern.
Leadership
The role of the leader has become increasingly important since Harold Wilson’s time in office, and voters often take the view that they are selecting a prime minister rather than voting for a party or an MP. As a result, leaders must convince voters that they can be trusted to deliver and are capable of running the country, and they must deliver all this through a likable and engaging media presence.
Image
Beyond the leadership issues, voters will make their choice based on their perception of the party’s image, which is connected to issue voting.
Tactical voting
Due to the nature of the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system, many voters use tactical voting to determine their choice. If their preferred candidate is unlikely to win the seat, the voter will vote for their next favoured candidate if they think they have more chance of success. This is often done to try to prevent the candidate of the least favoured party from winning the seat.
The role of the party leader is to..
- inspire the party activists
- appear prime ministerial
- have a positive media presence
- appear strong in leading the party and, if elected, the nation
