Voting Behaviour and the Media - Topic 4.1.2

Question 1

How does governing competence influence successful governments?

A case study example:

1983

Answer 1

1983 - Although unemployment levels remained high, Margaret Thatcher’s Tory government had successfully brought inflation down fulfilling its manifesto commitments. Her leadership during the Falklands War and the unity of her cabinet further reinforced the government’s reputation for strength of purpose.

Question 2

How does governing competence influence unsuccessful governments?

A case study example:

1979

Answer 2

1979 - The inability of Callaghan to stop the dramatic escalation of strikes during the Winter of Discontent undermined public faith in his government. This was made worse when his attempts to reassure the country were misquoted in the press as ‘Crisis? What crisis?’. Swing voters consequently voted Tory because they though Margaret Thatcher was more likely to confront the growing power of trade unionism.

Question 3

To what extent do campaigns have an influence on an election?

With examples from 2010 and 2017:

Answer 3

• Campaigns can change and challenge views of a portion of the electorate. The growth of partisan dealignment suggests that campaigns do increasingly matter as voters have become more flexible with their intentions
• Nick Clegg’s 2010 campaign and his impressive performance in televised debates significantly increase Lib Dem support
• Corbyn’s optimistic rallies and popular manifesto commitments contrasted sharply with May’s uninspiring campaign appearances, which led to Labour increasing their support as the campaign progressed

Question 4

To what extent do campaigns not have an influence on an election?

With examples from 2019

Answer 4

• According to some political commentators, the influence of the campaign can be exaggerated since voters in general have already made their minds up
• In the 1950s and 60s, the class allegiance that political parties could depend on meant that campaigns made little difference in swaying most voters
• In 2019, the Tories ran a more effective campaign by relentlessly focusing on Brexit. However, during the campaign, polling hardly changed, suggesting that many voters had already decided how to vote before the campaigning began

Question 5

How does voter turnout and trends impact election results?

Answer 5

Voter turnout in general elections is less high than it has traditionally been. A low point was reached in 2001 when just 59.4% of the electorate voted. By 2017, turnout had recovered to 68.8%. It dipped back to 67.3% in 2019 and in 2024, the turnout had dropped again to 59.8%. Age matters more than the headline figure. Older people are much more likely to vote than younger people. This is generally to the Tories’ advantage, as they have much more support among older voters than does the Labour Party. Labour has also been disadvantaged since voters in the lower social class are less likely to vote than in the higher categories. However, because of the Tories’ growing support among C2, D and E voters, this may become a problem for the Tories as much as for Labour.

Question 6

How does the manifesto influence the outcome of an election?

With examples from 1987 and 1992:

Answer 6

A political party explains the policies upon which it will govern. It’s unlikely that voters will engage with all the elements of a manifesto. However, certain popular policies may help swing the result, while unpopular or confusing policies can help to undermine a campaign.

• 1987 - Labour didn’t commit to the nuclear deterrent. The Tories claimed that Labour couldn’t be trusted on defence
• 1992 - Labour commitment to increase public spending allowed the Tories to claim that a Labour government would mean a ‘tax bombshell’ for every family

Question 7

How does issue-based voting influence boting habits?

With examples from 2017 and 2019:

Answer 7

In addition to making decision on the comptence of the government, voters can choose to vote on the salience to them of certain issues. Political parties often establish focus groups to investigate which issues the public feels most strongly about so they can tailor their manifesto accordingly. Elections can be determined by voters making a choice based on self-interest.

• In 2017, a core issues was where the leading parties stood on Brexit, while Labour’s commitment to abolishing tuition fees provided a strong incentive to vote Labour
• In 2019, party positions on Brexit also drove manifestos and campaigns