Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards

1
Q

Definition of class

A

Levels of status in society based on wealth, culture and social status.

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2
Q

Class de-alignment

A

The fact that voting is becoming less linked to class recently

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3
Q

Social mobility

A

the ability to come from a lower class and still get a high income job and change class

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4
Q

Cleavage

A

A historically determined social or cultural line which divides citizens into groups with differing political interests, resulting in political conflict among these groups.

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5
Q

Bloc

A

a group of voters that are strongly motivated by a specific common concern or group of concerns to the point that such specific concerns tend to dominate their voting patterns, causing them to vote together in elections

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6
Q

Bottom Up

A

Characteristics of classes are becoming more overlapped and less clear cut and the classes are merging slightly

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7
Q

Top down

A

The working class has become smaller and therefore the parties have become more centrist to try and appeal to a wider range of people and when parties do this the classes become less clear cut.

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8
Q

Valence factors/ Competence voting

A

Deciding who to vote for based on judgement of the current gov and their competence

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9
Q

How much did Labour and Conservative win of each class in 1964

A

Wilson (L) won 64% of DE voters

Douglas-Home (C) won 75% of AB voters.

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10
Q

Winter of discontent stat

1978–79

Under Jim Callaghan (L)

A

There was an 11% swing to Tories from Labour of C2 voters.

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11
Q

2019 stat for C2/DE voters

A

Tories won 48% of C2/DE voters

Labour only won 33%

Massive indication of class dealignment

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12
Q

Partisan Dealignment

A

Not voting traditionally with one strict party but judging the government competence and the Valence factors

(how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with the policies of the government.)

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13
Q

Valence voting

A

Valence is the idea that people support a party best able to deliver on issues they care about.

Valence is not only concerned with prospective policies but how much they trust a party or leader.

Eg many voters liked Labour’s policies such as abolishing tuition fees and funding the NHS but questioned whether they could actually deliver it alongside economic prosperity.

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14
Q

Salient issues

A

Divisive Issue voting.

Divisive issues considered to be extremely important at the time of the election. Eg Brexit or economic crisis.

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15
Q

Spatial issues

A

Issue voting.

Stresses the importance of positional issues.

Parties prioritise certain things based on their position and it tends to divide voters.

Eg. NHS funding or immigration.

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16
Q

Valence/universal issues

A

Issues everyone has a universal agreement on.

Eg no one wants a higher crime rate.

The issue is how we get there

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17
Q

Rational choice voting

A

Voting influenced by short term, self interested policies and voting accordingly.

Voters consider how the government will affect them and their families

Combines issue voting and valence (trust)

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18
Q

Issue voting

A
  • Voters must be aware of the issue
  • they must have an opinion on the issue
  • the must detect a difference between the parties on the issue
  • They must convert this into a party preference.

It relies on high level of political engagement to explain voting trends which is why it makes voting diffiult to explain.

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19
Q

Regional voting

A

Closely associated with class, with parties having electoral heartlands and electoral deserts.

The south east is the most prosperous region in the UK with high levels of home ownership and low levels of heavy industrial trade with unionism. The conservatives do very well here especially as it lacks raciall diversity.

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20
Q

Labour and conservative stats in

  • ethnically diverse large cities
  • compared to rural areas.

2017

A

London - 55% (Labour) and 33% (Tories)

Southern England - 29% (Labour) and 54% (Tories)

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21
Q

Tories being more popular among working class than middle class.

2019

A

A survey by YouGov found that the

Conservatives won 48% of voters in the lower C2DE social grade

as opposed to 43% in the higher ABC1

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22
Q

When did the huge change in class dealignment happen?

what was the swing?

A

When Tony Blair was elected in 1997

The election saw a huge 10.2% swing from the Conservatives to Labour

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23
Q

Link between partisan alignment and class dealignment

A

When people identify strongly with a class they normally identify strongly with a party.

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24
Q

Ethnicity voting with stat

1 eg

A

Evidence suggests that ethnic minority groups are most likely to vote Labour.

60%-70% of BAME voted Labour in the last 4 elections.

This is often also an overlap with class as well.

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25
Q

2017 Voting Stat in East Ham which is 77% BAME

A

83.2% Labour

12.8% conservative

This is most likely because the conservative’s opinion on immigration as well as a link with class and lower income families.

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26
Q

Age statistic from 2017 election

A

Young voters are far more likely to vote Labour

23% of 65+ - Labour

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27
Q

Gender and voting

A

Women throughout history were far more likely to vote conservative because they didnt work and were concerned more with household prices.

Considering this the fact that women now equally vote CON and LAB and young women are considerably more likely to vote Labour shows a swing 2019 election 65% 18-24 women voted for LAB, compared to 46% of 18-24 men.

This might be because 86% of Tory Austerity is estimated to have come from women’s pockets.

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28
Q

Party leader and voting

A

The party leader’s personality or charisma can have a big affect on the party’s succsess.

Eg - 1983 Thatcher seen as strong and formidable whereas Foot’s intelligence didnt appeal to Labour’s core voters.

Blair young energetic family man contrast to Major.

Eg. May was disliked, Corbyn wasnt trusted.

Televised debates and interviews are when this begins to become apparent.

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29
Q

Governing competency

A

An assement of how effective a party has been in government.

Control of Events: Callaghan could not control the Winter of discontent strikes and was misquoted saying “Crisis, what crisis?” - Lost 1979 election

Policy: Thatcher’s gov stuck to their promise of changing the economic model and were rewarded with electoral success.

Party Unity, Strong leadership: Blair’s Labour shows voters rewarding a party who had a clear vision and united party.

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30
Q

Economic management

2 egs

A

Widely accepted that the economy is one of the most salient voting motivators

Voters are much more likely to support if a party has handled the economy well and vice versa.

Eg 1978 Winter of Discontent’ played a key role in Thatcher’s 1979 victory.

in 2010 the tories were able to blame Brown’s Labour for the 2008 financial crisis.

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31
Q

Stat about how many of the most ethnically diverse constituencies the conservatives won in 2017

A

They won 5/75 of the most ethnically diverse constituencies

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32
Q

Education and voting

A

Traditionally those with a higher education go on to earn more money and therefore were more likely to vote Tory

But we have seen a drastic change now in the 21st century where higher degree = more likely to vote labour

2019 Degree or higher LAB 43% / CON 29%

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33
Q

Case Study: 1979 Election

Background of this Labour Government

Key details from 1974-1976 before the Winter.

A
  • Labour (Harold Wilson) won the 1974 GE and Callaghan succeeded Wilson as Leader in 1976.
    1975 - Callaghan had been responsible as Foreign Secretary for the re-negotiation of membership in the European Communities.
  • In the 1974 GE they only won a small majority and when Callaghan came in they had no majority at all.
  • Callaghan was forced to strike a confidence supply agreement with the Lib dems, the “Lib Lab Pact”
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34
Q

Case Study: 1979 Election

Immediate background to the 1979 election

1978-May 1979

A
  • Lib-Lab pact only lasted til August 1978 and at this point Callaghan could have called a GE as the economy was stable and he was popular but he didnt.
  • The Winter of Discontent began when the gov gave tanker drivers a 14% raise but everyone else was capped at 5%, leading to mass strikes.
  • Devolution referendum was held and Scot voted yes but the lack of majority meant the decision couldnt be implemented.
  • Labour lost more by-elections, the _SNP withdrew suppor_t and a _vote of no confidence happened._
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35
Q

Case Study: 1979 Election

leadership and campaign

A

Steel (Lib Dem) very charasmatic

  • Callaghan actually more popular as a person than Thatcher but his competence wasnt trusted and people had little confidence
  • “Crisis, what crisis?” made him look out of touch

The Conservatives were 10 points ahead in the polls at the beginning of the campaign.

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36
Q

Case Study: 1979 Election

Thatcher Character

A

Thatcher employed Saatchi and Saatchi advertising company to run a convincing campaign off “Labour isnt working”

She participated in voice coaching to make her voice seem more appealing

Used photo opportunities to command her public image, ), holding a calf, drinking tea in a factory (highlighting her ‘house wife’ persona and getting women to vote for her - Wilson addmitted his wife was voting for her)

Played her adverts when factories had lunch.

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37
Q

Case Study: 1979 election

Where did Thatcher Launch her campaign and why is this important?

A

Cardiff

Very working class city

Showed people that she wants to prioritise the working class etc

38
Q

Case Study: 1979 Election

What were the 3 things Thatcher was called and why is this important?

A

“Iron Lady” - presents her as strong and capable

“Our Maiden” and “Our Maggie” - likeable and docile, appeal to the housewife and women voters.

39
Q

Case Study: 1979 Election

What was it at its worst in years before?

What was the inflation rate before 1979 election?

Inflation def

A

Inflation is the rate at which the prices for goods and services increase. It’s one of the key measures of financial well-being because it affects what consumers can buy for their money.

Inflation was at its peak in 1975, at 22.6%.

Inflation was at 10.1% before the election

40
Q

Case Study: 1979 Election

Conservative v Labour manifesto

A

‘The Labour way is the better way’ promised an increase in pensions and tax cuts.

However, people believed the tories were the ones who were more likely to bring taxes down.

‘The Conservative Manifesto’ promised to control inflation (which was really high) and keep unions pay claims in check.(which people doubted labour could do.)

41
Q

Case Study: 1979 Election

Turnout

A

Turnout was 76% which normally would have helped Labour but it didnt this time.

Before the election the tory poll lead narrowed which likely helped them as their voters were encouraged to turn out.

42
Q

Case Study: 1979 Election

Final results

A

Conservatives won a 43 seat majority

With a swing to CON of 5.2%, largest since 1945

15% swing in working class voters - class dealignment

20% more young women voters supported CON.

43
Q

Case Study: 1979 Election

Thatcher’s policies and focuses

A
  • Focused on the economic incabilitiy of Labour Gov previously.
  • The lack of control over unions

Her own:

Right to buy council housing

Policies to lower inflation

- Issues lower classes care about

44
Q

1992 election result

following background up until 1994

A

Kinnock (L) lost to Major and then resigned.

Taken over by John Smith (Very left wing and didnt want to change much.)

Blair came in in 1994 and wanted to attract more middle class voters so created ‘New Labour’

45
Q

Black Wednesday

Year?

Details?

A

1992

There had been a recession that begun in the 1980s

The collapse in the pound sterling forced Britain to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM).

46
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

Key points

ie

Result

and overall reasons for the result

A

Landslide victory for Blair

The conservatives suffered internal divisions, poor leadership and failed to seem relevant to contemporary society.

Voters felt they had not dealt with the 1990s financial crisis well

Blair had a strong modern campaign, which appealed to middle class voters.

47
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

Final results in % and majority

A

Labour - 43% and 179 seat majority

Tories - 30.7% vote

Lib Dems 16.8% vote (emerged)

Lowest share of the Vote for Con since 1832.

Labour won a 14% swing in the middle class group since 1992.

48
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

Age voting

A

Labour achieved more votes across all age groups than the conservative party.

Highest percentage coming from 18-24s.
Especially in 18-24 women with 53% of them supporting Labour and only 24% tories

Conservatives lost 16 points in the 35-54 age group, their largest loss. (economy concerned)

49
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

Ethnicity voting

A
  • 70% of all non white voters voted for labour
  • 18% voted for conservatives
  • Labour gained 66% of Asian Votes and 82% of Black votes.
50
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

Employment Status

A

45% of those in employment voted for Labour

As did 64% of unemployed people.

51
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

Governing competence

A

Major narrowly won the 1992 election and immidetely lost the trust of the electorate on the handling of the economy (BW 1992)

Major character becoming increasingly disliked especially compared to Blair

Many ministers resigned with accusations of sleaze (major also involved)

Also allegations that the gov was involved in illegal arms deals with Iraq

52
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

Tony Blair ideals

A

Blair took over after the sudden death of John Smith

He brought new, youthful charisma as the youngest PM since 1812.

He brought in a Third Way ideal of a “stakeholder society”

“Mondeo Man” - average man, appealing to everyone

53
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

Tony Blair policies

A

Amended Clause 4 of Labour Const so they no longer had a commitment to nationalisation.

Promised not to raise income tax

Took a hard line on crime which was usually a conservative area.

Focused on constitutional reform eg devolution and HOL. (won lib dem voters)

Abandoning links with trade Unions and supporting businesses instead

Education is a big focus

54
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

Labour Campaign

A

All the posters and campaign videos were very relaxed and laid back. Making him seem friendly.

Spice Girls endorsed Blair

Alistair Campbell “Spin Doctor” ran a disciplined campaign that focused on portraying Blair as young and energetic

Blair had a presidential campaign which focused on his personality

“Things can only get better” catchy song video

55
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

Labour’s pledge card

A
56
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

Labour and the Media

A

Labour won the favour of the sun, who never usually support Labour but this time switched because Blair was friends with Rupert Murdoch.

The Sun normally predict who will win the election, but on this occasion its important to note they only swapped allegiance once Labour already had a commanding lead in the polls. (not necessarily press)

Sun ran the headline “It’s the sun what won it”

Biggest increase of Labour voters came from Sun readers.

57
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

What was interesting about this election?

A

The economy was doing fine, the opposition party werent offering radical change.

Yet there was a huge swing in voters

this may suggest it was a media election and that Blair’s personality and use of media benefited him hugely compared to the Conservatives.

58
Q

Case Study: 1997 Election

Problems for the Conservative campaign

A

Martin Bell (journalist) stood as anti sleaze candidate against Neil Hamilton who resigned amid a “Cash for questions” scandal

Referendum Party took a lot of the Brexit voters away from the Conservative party as they were so divided over EU.

Major was uncharasmatic and their demon eyes oster misjudged the mood of the nation

59
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

Context of the 2017 election

Back to June 2016

A

June 2016 - UK voted to leave in EU election and Cameron Resigned

May took office in July 2016

May then ruled out a snap election from September through to March

May 2017 - May then calls snap shock election. At this point May was 20 points ahead in the polls and some believed she could even win a 200 seat majority.

60
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

4 assumptions that the 2017 election confirmed

A

Class and partisan dealignment continued as the electorate voted more imaginatively than ever before

The way in which the campaign was fought was highly significant in determining the result

The television debates were influential - indicating that party leadership is highly important.

Social media would have a huge role to play in elections from now on

61
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

The campaign faults

Tories

A

Andrew Rawnsley (political journalist) “Conservatives ran the worst campaign in living memory”

They assumed the electorate would not trust Corbyn’s Labour

Dementia Tax

Uninspiring Manifesto

May’s “strong and stable leadership” was not portrayed

May didnt show up for TV debate

62
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

Dementia Tax

A

Proposal to make wealtheir pensioners pay a share of the cost of NHS homecare was labelled Dementia tax and massively stalled the campaign.

the following U turn on the policy made her look dithering and inconsistent

63
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

May Character

A

May was meant to be a powerful leader

but this ‘strength’ turned sour when she gave a series of l_acklustre, scripted, emotionless_ speeches

here is when she lived up to names of

Maybot

She failed to turn up to televised leader debates and Caroline Lucas said “the first rule of leadership is to show up”

64
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

One problem with the conservative campaign

A

They had to try and make it a leader centric campaign and move away from the traditional conservative label.

This is because they had to appeal to UKIP voters who are traditionally working class.

However, this failed to win other votes as May was so uncharasmatic.

65
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

Labour Manifesto and policies

A

Abolish tuition fees

Increase spending on the police

Not increasing taxes for the 95% of the population earning less than £80,000 per year.

Very anti-austerity message which was warmly received.

Catch All Brexit policy - get a better deal and then put it to the people

66
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

Labour Campaign

Corbyn character

A

Hugely sucsesful in speaking to large groups, especially young people

“For the many not the few”

He drew equal with May in the polls after she had such a huge lead

Did interview with grime star JME in NME which mobilised young voters.

Corbyn - public, mass events compared to May’s invite only events repeated the events of Major.

67
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

Media

A

Declining role of the press in elections

The Sun and daily mail and others all attacked Corbyn but yet he still managed to increase his vote share by 9.6%

Even tried to associate him and others with IRA

“Dont chuck Britain in the Cor-bin

68
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

Issue voting

A

May thought people would focus on the valence issues such as competence of the Labour party

But they actually focused on salient issues such as Brexit

Tories received working class votes that wanted Brexit done

While Labour gained more AB pro EU voters

69
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

Final results and trends

A

Resulted in a Minority Gov and Con had to form Confidence and supply agreement with the DUP.

While Labour achieved a 9.6% swing, but Conservatives still increased their vote share by 5.5% (biggest % of pop vote since 1983)

Labour won in the places that voted remain while Conservatives won in leave areas.

70
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

Age and education

A

High youth turnout. 24% increase in Labour votes in 18-24

Among those with GCSEs or less the tories beat labour by 22% and in those with High qualifications Labour led by 17%

71
Q

Case Study: 2017 Election

UKIP

A

Lots Farage as a leader so collapsed

Over half of UKIPs 2015 voters switched to the tories

18% to Labour

and

18% remained with UKIP.

72
Q

What is interesting about the 1997 and 2017 vote share?

A

In 1997 Blair won 62% of the vote

In 2017 Corbyn won about 60% of the vote.

Shows how a landslide victory then was a loss now. How FPTP distorts the vote

73
Q

Media Bias

A

There are strict laws governing TV/ radio political broadcasting

It must be fair and appropriate

must finish by the time when the polling booths open

Broadcasters must wait until polls close to publish the opinion polls

Newspapers are under no such obligation.

74
Q

Opinion polls controversial

3 EGs

A

1992 - most polls suggested that support for Labour was growing at the expense of the Conservatives and this may have encouraged a people to turnout for the Conservatives that wouldn’t have otherwise.

2015 - polls predicted a close race between Labour and the Conservatives which enabled the Conservatives to warn against the possibility of an unstable Labour SNP coalition.

2017 - most opinion polls gave the Conservatives a large majority which may have reduced the urgency for which some Conservatives or led others to believe they could protest and vote Lib dem for remain reasons, not realising how close the election truly was.

75
Q

TV Debates

A

Become much more popular

Started since 2010, and watched by 10 million viewers

May didnt show in 2017 and it damaged campaign

2019 - Johnson didnt show and was replaced by Ice scultpure at Climate change debate

Now some think its more influential than papers

76
Q

social media

A

Elections are being increasingly influenced by social media.

In 2017 Labour activists used Facebook, Twitter, hashtags and whatsapps to spread labours message across the Internet.

Corbyn had three times more followers than Theresa May

The vilification of Corbyn in the press mattered less in this election showing a move towards social media and away from traditional press

Labour spent money on polling day promoting #forthemany.

they made corbynism feel like a community

77
Q

Reasons why the Media wins elections

A

Public gain most their info from media - very few read manifestos

Public are swayed by persuasive headlines

Politicians are conscious of media image

Winning in 2015 and 2017 was supported by majority of press

Power of media continues to grow

Social media allows for echo chambers

78
Q

Reasons why the media dont win elections

A

Public make up their mind from many combined media sources

People will normally have an opinion that is reinforced by the press they read but it was still their opinion beforehand

parties and media are blurred with social media

Media follows and reflects publics views rather than creates them

79
Q

The Canary

A

Online blog that was one of the most popular news sources on facebook in the early weeks of the campaign

It drew in numbers comparable with the BBC and national papers.

The editor is a big supporter of Corbyn

80
Q

What was the context of the 2019 GE?

A
  • Boris Johnson, who had become prime minister in July, was unable to get his brexit deal through Parliament as he headed a minority government in a weak position
  • Originally, he intended that the UK should leave the EU on 31 October 2019 – the date inherited from his predecessor, Theresa May, after the originally planned departure on 29 March was missed.
  • Tensions had already been heightened in September by the attempt to prorogue Parliament for a month, a move which was ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court.
  • Under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act he could not call a general election without the support of two-thirds of MPs.
  • Mistrust of the prime minister was such that he failed three times MPs also passed the ‘Benn Act’, which prevented Johnson from taking the UK out of the EU without a deal.
  • The prime minister finally secured his election by introducing an ‘Early Parliamentary General Election Bill’, which circumvented the FTPA and required only a simple majority to pass
  • Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who had hitherto blocked an early poll, now supported it. Arguably he had little choice once the SNP and Liberal Democrats had signalled their acceptance. His judgement was questioned by some members of his own party, who feared that they were being forced to fight an election in unfavourable circumstance. More than 100 Labour MPs absented themselves from the vote or abstained.
81
Q

What were the mainfestos of CON and LAB like in the 2019 GE?

A
  • The Conservatives focused on their pledge to ‘get Brexit done’, with Johnson repeating insistently that his deal was ‘oven-ready’there were also promises of increased spending on the NHS, police and infrastructure. Thatcherite tax-cutting priorities were set aside in order to reassure voters that this was a ‘One Nation’ party which believed in public services.
  • The Labour manifesto was the most radical in a generation. It comprised tax rises for those on higher incomes, extensive renationalisation of privatised services and ambitious plans for investment in public services, designed to end the ‘decade of austerity’.
82
Q

What were the 2019 campaigns like generally?

A

The three main UK party leaders ran ‘presidential’ campaigns focused on themselves. They journeyed across the country in ‘battle buses’ to events where they were greeted by rapturous audiences of party loyalists.

83
Q

What was the Conservatives 2019 campaign like?

A
  • The Conservatives ran a tightly disciplined campaign.
  • All candidates were required to pledge loyalty to the prime minister’s Brexit plan. Most of the unreconciled rebels did not stand
  • Johnson played it safe during the campaign, which came as a surprise given his normally ebullient nature.
  • Towards the end of the campaign Johnson mishandled an encounter with a journalist who tried to make him look at photos of a four- year-old boy sleeping on a hospital floor.
84
Q

What was the Labour 2019 campaign like?

A
  • Johnson’s decision to hammer home ‘get Brexit done’ contrasted sharply with Labour’s lack of clarity on the issue. Corbyn’s eventual declaration that he would remain neutral in a second referendum did not inspire people on either side of the argument.
  • In the final stages of the campaign, worried that it had pivoted too far towards the Remain position, Labour switched its focus to Leave-supporting seats in its northern heartlands, but without success.
  • The Labour leader was widely regarded as a negative factor for his party, with many candidates reportedly forced to listen to harsh criticism of him when canvassing.
  • Corbyn’s failure to deal with anti-Semitism on the Labour left, for which he was slow to apologise, was a continuous source of embarrassment for the party.
85
Q

How was social media used in the 2019 election?

A
  • All parties used social media to send out targeted messages, but the Conservatives proved more effective in doing so than in the 2017 contest, when they had been outpaced by Labour.
  • They used focus groups and polling to reach voters whose political loyalties could be swayed. The party stepped up its Facebook advertising in marginal seats during the last week of the campaign. A stream of messages warned undecided voters that Corbyn could become prime minister with Liberal Democrat and SNP support, and that Johnson needed just nine more seats to deliver Brexit.
  • There were also reports of arguably unscrupulous tactics, including the renaming of the Conservatives’ Twitter account as the more neutral- sounding ‘factcheckUK’, with the letters ‘from CCHQ’ in small print.
86
Q

What was the results of the 2019 GE?

A
  • CON gain 47 seats, LAB lose 69
  • CON majority of 80
  • LAB worst result since 1935
87
Q

Why did Labour lose so badly?

A
  • The loss of Labour’s so-called ‘red wall’ in the north. The Conservatives won 33 of the 63 seats in this area. Their gains included constituencies such as Blyth Valley – traditional manufacturing and mining towns, many of which had returned Labour MPs for up to a century
  • This remarkable turn-around was partly explained by the fact that these seats had voted for Leave in 2016, and there was widespread disillusionment with Labour’s lack of clarity on Brexit
  • Voters here were disappointed that Parliament had not delivered the result of the referendum, three-and-a-half years on.
  • Conversely, Labour held on to most of its seats in London, a mainly pro-Remain area.
  • There were other factors in play; A YouGov poll of Labour voters who deserted the party in 2019 indicated that Corbyn’s leadership was the main reason for 35 per cent of them, compared to 19 per cent who cited Brexit. Most respondents in this second category felt that he had not offered strong leadership on the issue.
  • On crime and immigration, the London-based Labour leadership was out of touch with much of its northern grassroots. There is evidence in these areas of a longer-term process of disillusionment with Labour.
88
Q

What does the 2019 election suggest about age in voting?

A
  • According to analysis by YouGov, age was the most important determinant of voting. 56 per cent of those in the 18-to-24 age bracket voted Labour, compared to only 14 per cent of those aged 70 and over.
  • For every ten years older a voter was, the chance of them voting Conservative increased by nine points, and the chance of them voting Labour decreased by eight points.
  • Overall the voting patterns of men and women were very similar, except in the 18-to-24 group, where 28 per cent of men but only 15 per cent of women voted Conservative.
89
Q

What does the 2019 election suggest about class in voting?

A
  • The declining importance of class, already witnessed in 2017, was evident in 2019.
  • Labour scored 33 per cent in both the ABC1 classes (middle-class ‘white collar’ occupations) and C2DEs (working-class ‘blue collar’ occupations).
  • The Conservatives were ahead of Labour in all classes but scored more highly among C2DEs (48 per cent) than among ABC1s (43 per cent).
  • Levels of education were a clearer dividing line than social class. The Conservatives outperformed Labour by 58 to 25 per cent among voters with the lowest level of educational qualification (GCSE or below) but amongst those with a university degree they trailed Labour by 29 to 43 per cent.
90
Q

What does the 2019 election suggest about issue and valence voting?

A
  • Brexit was a salient issue in the 2019 election - The Conservatives were supported by 74 per cent of Leave voters but only 19 per cent of Remain voters.
  • This links to a theme which has been increasingly central in modern elections: voters’ perceptions of the various parties’ governing competence.