Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
Evaluate the extent to which, outside of demographic factors, newspapers have the greatest influence why people vote the way they do [30]
newspapers
YES 1 - NEWSPAPERS BECOME PARTISAN
- Over time newspapers have become more savage in their criticism of party leaders which they dislike and this rubs off on their readership
- 79% Telegraph readers voted Tory in 2017
- 73% Guardian readers voters Labour in 2017
COUNTER - Papers reflect the views of their readers and don’t change them as Murdoch said ‘We don’t have that sort of power’
Evaluate the extent to which, outside of demographic factors, newspapers have the greatest influence why people vote the way they do [30]
valence
NO 1 - VALENCE HAS MORE OF AN IMPACT
- Most people judge the general competence of the parties on offer.
- Economic voting is very potent. Cameron & May successfully painted Brown, Miliband and Corbyn as economically unsound (2010,2015 and 2017) after the 2008 financial crash and the Tories to be more stable
COUNTER - It is thanks to the newspapers that views on competence are formed
Evaluate the extent to which, outside of demographic factors, newspapers have the greatest influence why people vote the way they do [30]
leaders
NO 2 - POPULARITY OF LEADERS
- 2015 Cameron net satisfaction -2 and Miliband net satisfaction -19
- 1997, 2001 and 2005 Tony Blair’s charm vs 2010 Brown’s dourness and gaffs.
COUNTER - 1979 Callaghan v. popular = lost to Thatcher, 2015 Farage net satisfaction -25 = vote share up 9.5%
Evaluate the extent to which, outside of demographic factors, newspapers have the greatest influence why people vote the way they do [30]
polling
NO 3 - POLLING MAKES BIGGEST IMPACT
- Fears about predicted winners encourage tactical voting as people ditch emerging parties and the Lib Dems for one of the big two in order to change the result.
- 2015 fears of an SNP/LAB coalition = late surge in votes for the Tories.
- 2017 fears/complacency of a comfortable Tory majority = surge in votes for Labour = hung parliament
COUNTER - The newspapers who interpret polls and create the narrative to frighten voters! Do many people trust the polls now after so many recent ‘surprise’ results.
Evaluate whether elections are won by the government or lost by the opposition / how does party image affect result[30]
campaign (lost by government)
LOST BY GOVERNMENT/BAD GOVERNMENT IMAGE 1 - Campaign
- 1997 election campaign the Conservatives brought themselves down because of ‘Tory Sleaze’ and ‘Black Wednesday’. The former is evidenced in the 1994 ‘cash for questions’ affair, where Tory MP’s were paid by journalists to raise certain questions in Parliament. ‘Black Wednesday’ was when the Tory government had to pull out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism as they could not maintain the value of the pound, costing over £3 billion
- One could argue it was still mainly the victory of the opposition with Tony Blair criticising the negative campaigning of the Tories with their ‘New Labour, New Danger’ posters and putting on a more positive campaign themselves
-Overall, it was the damage the Tories did to themselves that caused this issue
Evaluate whether elections are won by the government or lost by the opposition / how does party image affect result[30]
media (won by opposition)
WON BY OPPOSITION/GOOD OPPOSITION IMAGE 1 - Media
-During the 2017 GE the pressure group Momentum used social media cleverly to build up support for Corbyn and increase Labour’s membership. Indeed, the Tories failed to replicate this success online with their constant repetition of ‘Strong and Stable’ alienating many. Because social media gives an equal platform to all parties to the electorate, Labour realised this and capitalised
However, media newspapers tend to reflect and reinforce political views, rather than lead them. E.g. readers of almost tabloid Conservative papers such as the Daily Mail (over 1.5 million in circulation) don’t tend to change their views as a result of the paper. Thus, the loss of seats the Conservatives had in 2017 (NOTE THEY STILL WON OVERALL) cannot be squarely blamed on the media
Evaluate whether elections are won by the government or lost by the opposition / how does party image affect result[30]
party leaders (lost by government)
LOST BY GOVERNMENT/BAD PARTY IMAGE 2 - PARTY LEADERS
- For example, in 2010 Labour leader Gordon Brown was heard calling a Rochdale pensioner a ‘bigot’. This scandal led many to believe Brown was incompetent and not fit to be PM. When PM slips up it is likely to be more impactful than when the opposition does so due to the media attraction granted to the leader.
- However, in 2017 labour leader Corbyn’s scruffy look and better capabilities at connecting with young people makes it seem like because of party leaders, elections are really won by the opposition rather than lost by the government
Evaluate whether elections are won by the government or lost by the opposition / how does party image affect result[30]
manifesto (won by opposition)
WON BY OPPOSITION 2/GOOD OPPOSITION IMAGE - MANIFESTOS
-During the 1997 election Blair put forward a more balanced manifesto - on crime, he described how Labour would be “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime”. The manifesto also proposed a Freedom of Information Act to increase transparency. This manifesto was a stark contrast to the Tories who proposed installing far more CCTV in the UK to increase government surveillence. Thus, manifestos give the opposition a chance to gain the upper-hand on government.
However, one could argue that it was the Tory leader John Major’s own fault for hs inferior manifesto - it barely mentioned tackling Tory sleaze.
Evaluate the importance of social class in voting behaviour [30]
social class
YES, ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED
- AB voters typically Conservative in general elections (59% 1997, 45% 2015 and 43% 2017) and conservative in referendums (67% Remain)
- DE voters typically Labour (59% 1997 and 2017) and strong leave (64%)
COUNTER - Class dealignment and deviant voters are growing. 40% AB voted Tory in 2010. 40% DE voted Labour 2010. So, in certain years other factors influence voters.
Evaluate the importance of social class in voting behaviour [30]
region
NO, REGION
- Voters in the SE and Midlands, typically rural, tend to lean towards the Tories (2017 - 54% SE and 50% Midlands)
- Voters in the North and London, typically urban, tend to lean towards Labour (2017 - 53% N, 55% London)
COUNTER - Is this pattern to do with class? Greater deprivation exists in urban areas and affluence in leafy suburbs. However - there is a lot of poverty in rural areas too, especially the SW
Evaluate the importance of social class in voting behaviour [30]
age
NO, AGE
-Young people tend to strongly favour Labour (67% of 18-24s in 2017). Old people strongly tend to vote Conservative (59% of 65+ in 2017)
COUNTER - Again, is this to do with class? Young people have less assets and tend to start out in DE or C2 jobs whereas more established adults have more to safeguard and occupy many of the C1 and AB jobs,
Evaluate the importance of social class in voting behaviour [30]
ethnicity
NO, ETHNICITY
-Black and Muslim voters tend to vote Labour (over 60% of BME voters in every election since 1997). Sikh and Hindu voters tend to vote Tory.
COUNTER - Yet again, is this to do with class? Black + Muslim voters are more likely to live in less affluent urban areas whilst Hindu and Sikh communities are more represented in AB and C1 occupations.
