Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
1979: To what extent did did age influence the voting behaviour of the electorate?
Conservative share of 18-24 year old vote went from 24% in 1974 to 42% in 1979; almost doubled.
Each age group voted conservative.
1979: To what extent did did gender influence the voting behaviour of the electorate?
Increases share: 1974 39%, 1979 47%
1979: To what extent was there partisan dealignment in voting behaviour in the 1979 election?
C2: 1974 26% voted conservative, 1979 41% voted conservative; on par with labour;
DE: 1974 22% vote conservative, 1979 34% vote conservative; Labour still leads but significant gain in tory voters.
Demonstrates shift in traditional labour votes towards tory.
Why is there a class shift in favour of the conservatives?
-Winter of discontent
-IMF Bailout
-1973 Oil crises
-Failures of labour
-failure of lib-lab pact.
What was the 1973 oil crisis?
Price of oil trebled -> collapse of industry and recession -> huge inflation exacerbated by Trade Union strength which caused wage- inflationary spiral-> 3 day working week fails to help-> demonstrates strength of TU
What was the IMF bailout?
Callaghan borrows £3.9bn from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -> in return IMF allowed to audit Callaghan’s annual budgets -> worsens Labour/ Trade Union Relations.
What was the Winter of discontent?
Callaghan maintained 5% cap on public wage increases -> prompts wave of strikes in public service workers (Eg hospital staff, waste collectors) -> public services come to a halt and bad winter weather causes a drop in productivity and trade.
What was the Lib-Lab pact?
Following a series of by-election losses in 1976-79, Callaghan loses control of HoC-> 1977 makes a 16- month pact with the liberals to ensure gov survival.
Why did the Lib- Lab pact fail?
1978 Liberals withdraw support, in order to support general election to solve the hung parliament-> Callaghan survives 2 votes of no confidence but loses 1979 vote of no confidence put forward by Margaret Thatcher.
Why is the media significant in politics?
Strongly favour one party; able to convince readership to vote in a particular way.
Significant in scrutiny: able to hold politicians to account.
Why isn’t the media significant in politics?
Overstated in swaying opinion: reinforces rather than changes.
Overstated in holding government to account: biased media means this function is less effective.
What did the Telegraph publish in favour of the Tories in 2019 and 2024?
2019- published the conservative manifesto.
2024- published a tactical voting guide to prevent Starmer getting a Landslide.
Impact of TV debates and interviews.
Theresa May refusal to debate Corbyn in 2017 made her look weak.
Boris Johnson refusing interview by Andrew Neil since it’d make him look bad and consequently hinder his campaign.
Shows politicians view outcomes of interviews and debates as decisive in dictating their popularity and support.
Evidence that reading right wing news doesn’t sway votes.
YouGov poll 2017: 30% of Sun readers voted labour.
Best for Britain Poll 2024: 52% of Daily Mail and 47% of Telegraph readers intended to vote Labour.
People consume media that they already agree with; media reinforces rather than changes opinion.
Evidence of media holding politicians to account.
Partygate: receiving leaks and releasing story gradually maximised damage done.
Radio interviews with Liz Truss exposed her failings in economic policy and contributed to her popularity.
2024 Post Office horizon scandal: ITV documentary brought issue to light and as a result of this media attention Government took action by organising compensation for those wrongly accused.
Evidence that media reporting is biased.
BBC allegations of bias when they broadcasted a false story about labour activists pushing a conservative advisor.
Gov able to control how they come across in the media to an extent:
2023 Suella Braverman’s controversial trip to Rwanda only brought right wing journalists such as from the Daily Mail and from the Telegraph; meant Rwanda policy was reported on in a good light.
Evidence of class dealignment in 2024 election.
-C2 and DE more likely to vote reform than middle/upper class voters.
-pre-1970- 64% of DE voted Labour vs 34% in 2024.
-Labour no longer associated with Blue Collar Working class.
Prevalence of age in 2024 Election
-2017, YouGov described age as the ‘new dividing line in British politics’.
-18-24 year old: 41% Labour, 8% Conservative
-60+: 24% Labour, 40% conservative.
-Higher turnout among voters 65+. 25 percentage points higher in turnout than 18-24.
Prevalence of education in 2024 election.
-Fewer formal qualifications= Tory, more formal qualifications= Labour/ Libdem.
-2019, 43% of those with a degree or higher voted Labour and 29% tory.
-2019, Tories won 59% of those with GCSE or lower as highest qualification.
-Brexit- 75% of those without qualifications voted to leave, 75% of those with qualifications voted to remain.
Counter to prevalence of education in elections.
-New class divide? Higher qualifications generally equates to higher earning, so is the education divide just another form of class divide?
Prevalence of region in 2024
-North of England returned to being a Labour heartland following conservatives breaking the ‘Red Wall’ in 2019. Conservatives only got 4/131 seats.
-SNP dominance in Scotland (established in 2010) dismantled as Labour gained majority in Scotland.
Counter to Prevalence of region in 2024
-Labour regained MOST areas in 2024 due to Tories doing bad; may not reflect a return to traditional regional voting, but tory weakness.
-Strong correlation between class and region implies that class is still dominant; traditionally the North has high proportion of w/c people, so more Labour voters.
-Regional divide may also link to age/ education factor: high Labour votes in cities where there are more younger voters and more educated voters.
1997: To What extent did age impact voting behaviour?
18-24: 49% Labour, 28% Tory, 17% Liberal Democrat
25-64: 49% Labour, 29% Tory, 18% Liberal Democrat
65+: 40% Labour, 36% Tory, 18% Liberal Democrat.
1997: To what extent was there class dealignment in voting behaviour?
WC: DE voted 60% Labour and C2 voted 50% Labour.
MC: 40% Conservative and 35% Labour
Not really dealignment: both classed aligned with traditional voting behaviour.
Political context of 1997 election.
Major’s ‘Back to Basics’ speech advocating a shift to One Nation ideals, but this was undermined by a wave of Tory politician scandals 1993-94.
Black Monday and Black Wednesday: economic crashes which lessened Tory popularity.
Increased unemployment.
1997: Labour main policies
-Education foremost: Education, Education, Education; increased investment.
-No tax increases.
-Low inflation and promotion of competitive business to boost economic growth.
-Provide 250,000 with work to get them off benefits.
1997: Conservative main policies
-Tight control of public spending and 20p basic rate of income tax.
-Prices and mortgages: stick to policies which minimise inflation and have lowest mortgage rates
-Protect jobs by keeping England out of the European Social Chapter + reduce unemployment
1997: Liberal Democrat manifesto:
-Greater investment in education.
-Greater investment into healthcare
-Economic stability through increased quality of workforce (via education), encouragement of saving and enterprise
-Cut VAT and tax on jobs and instead tax pollution.
1997: How did media support change for Labour?
-The Sun switched from supporting the Tories to Labour
-Greater circulation of media in favour of Labour (5 major Labour newspapers vs 4 major Tory ones)
-Together, there is a greater readership of Labour- centric news 1997.
