Voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
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Factors affecting voting behaviour - age
Millennials are 15 points less conservative than the national average which breaks the rule that the older you get the more conservative you get
Ipsos MORI (2017): 62% of voters at age 18-24 voted for Labour (27% voted for Tories), 69% of 65+ voters voted for Conservatives (19% voted for Labour)
In 2019 only 21% of 18-24yr old voters voted Cons. (This is 5% in 2024)
In 2019 only 14% of 70+ voters voted Labour. (This is 23% in 2024)
YouGov described age as the “biggest dividing line in British Politics”
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Factors affecting voting behaviour - gender
“Blair’s babes”, “Browns Sugars”, “Labour Lovelies” are examples of how the media in particular focuses on the “physical attributes of female candidates”. This could be said to be a major problem for female candidates. Traditionally, women were believed to favour the Conservatives - this changed under Blair in
with Labour winning a larger share of the female vote under him.
2019 - Nearly all parties had clear policies to address gender with the Conservatives having a commitment to tackle issues relating to violence against women including a commitment to appoint a violence against women commissioner.
2024 - Gender wasnt as big a factor in the GE as an almost equal percentage voted for each party, e.g. 34% of men voted labour and 35% of women did the same, which 12% of men voted LibDems and 12% of women did the same.
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Factors affecting voting behaviour - region
The North is most likely to vote Labour e.g. Liverpool Walton with 87% vote share to Labour MP Dan Carden - last 4 GE’s Walton’s Labour vote share hasn’t dropped below 72%.
2019 General Election - Conservatives broke down Labour’s so called “Red Wall” in Northern England where there were/are traditional Labour strongholds - due to Brexit and perceptions of party leadership.
2024 General Election - Seats that went to Reform UK were coastal due to their anti-immigrant rhetoric which instilled fear in their voters, thus manipulating them to vote reform
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Factors affecting voting behaviour - class
Class dealignment after 1970s — people no longer identify with a particular social class and social mobility is promoted
2019 Red Wall: the North which is traditionally dominated by working class (C2,DE) had voted for Conservatives
Ipsos MORI: 59% of class AB voted for Labour in 1997 whereas only 40% voted for Labour in 2010; only 21% of class DE voted for Conservatives in 1997 but 41% voted for Conservatives in 2019
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Factors affecting voting behaviour - ethnicity
BAME voters are more likely to vote Labour- 2019 elections 20% of BAME voters voted for Conservative, 64% BAME voters voted Labour
However, the proportion of BAME voters in classes C2 and DE is greater than the proportion of white people in those classes, so the preference for Labour may not be based on ethnicity, but on social class
However, in the 2024 election BAME voter share in Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats has decreased (compared with 2019) with Labour seeing the biggest loss of -18%. Whilst the independent candidates and Greens saw the biggest growth, independents grew by 13% of the vote share.
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Factors affecting voting behaviour - education
2017 elections - 47% of voters with degrees voted labour/lib dem, 36% voted conservative. 23% of voters with no qualifications voted labour/lib dem, 53% voted conservative
However, in 2019 the conservative party was the most popular party amongst all education groups - can make the argument that in more recent times education does not greatly influence voting behaviour
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Factors affecting voting behaviour - media (press)
“NoPress barrage didn’t work for Corbyn — The Sun increased negative media coverage of Corbyn (e.g. ‘Don’t chuck Britain in the Cor‘BIN’) and Daily Mail published a 15-page anti-Labour spread. But Labour still gained 32.1% of vote share in 2017. It could be because of factors like increased votes in age 18-24 (62% of the 18-24 voters voted Labour), popularity of party leaders, etc.
YouGov: 74% of Daily Mail readers voted Conservatives in 2017
Not every reader accepts the view of the newspaper, 26% people still didn’t vote for Conservatives
Press only reacts to the prevailing mood (opinion polls) of the time — Survation - 11 Dec 2019 - 34% for Labour, 45% for Conservatives (actual vote share: 42.3% Conservatives, 32.1% Lab
ression of party leader: vote share of Lib Dem only increased 1% and lost seats compared to 2005
May’s refusal to participate in a live TV debate caused her to further decrease her popularity.
TV debates may not show “clear winners” in debates, e.g. 2019 Corbyn and Johnson — dull and repetitive arguments. Therefore, there is no need to appear on TV.
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Factors affecting voting behaviour - media (social media)
Labour in April 2024 appointed a dedicated employee to work with influencers in TikTok and Instagram to promote a positive image of Keir Starmer. (The Guardian, 2024) Also, this is to attract young voters (18-24) as young people are tech-savvy and the largest proportion of the population in consumption of social media. Labour has gained 186 seats in the local election 2024. (+16%)
Conservatives won the 2019 general election despite a halved cost of advertisements
UKIP attracted voters in 2015 to support Brexit and push Conservatives to start the 2016 EU Withdrawal Referendum — UKIP will dilute votes from Conservatives if Tory did not take actions on Brexit
Social media is an echo chamber — it requires skills to attract the algorithm and bring new opinions to different users’ pages when they already have opinions and preferences in political parties and issues.
Labour made use of social media (viral videos) and campaigns with activists — Corbyn interjecting during Theresa May’s Facebook Live chat on ITV received 4 million views. Corbyn challenging May to a debate reached 1.4 million people.
2019 Conservatives had 2500 live paid-for adverts (Facebook Ad library), whereas Labour only has 250, showing that Conservatives won the election partially because of the advertisement in Facebook (arguably with a larger user population of older voters - 21% for tory in 18-24 voters, 67% for tory in 70+ voters)
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Evidence that suggests that campaigns are important:
Although some campaigns may simply reinforce existing attitudes, others may challenge them, especially if it’s a tight race. The growth of partisan dealignment suggests that campaigns do increasingly matter as voters have become more flexible in their voting intentions
In 2010, a strong Liberal Democrat campaign, including Nick Clegg’s impressive performance in the televised debates, significantly increased the Liberal Democrat support, mostly at the expense of the conservatives, leading to a hung parliament and a conservative Liberal democrat coalition
In 2017 Jeremy Corbyn’s optimistic rallies and popular manifesto commitments such as ending tuition fees contrasted sharply with Theresa May’s uninspiring campaign appearances and the widespread unpopularity with the ‘dementia tax’. As a result, Labour drastically increased its support as the campaign progressed, from less than 30% of the vote at the beginning of the election to 40% in the general election
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Evidence that suggests that campaigns aren’t important:
According to some political commentators the influence of the campaign can be exaggerated since voters in general have already made up their mind
Although Harold Wilson’s dynamic presidential campaign in 1964 was supposed to make his appeal to the voters as a British John F Kennedy, in fact, Sir Alec Douglas-Home’s low key dogged earnestness proved more appealing. In the end, Wilson increased Labour’s share of the vote by only 0.2% on Hugh Gaitskell’s lacklustre performance in 1959
In 2019, the conservatives ran a more effective campaign by relentlessly focusing on Brexit. However, during the campaign, polling hardly changed, suggesting that many voters had already made up their minds before the campaign began.
In 1997, Labour had a runaway lead in the polls and party workers were therefore encouraged to adopt a “sit tight and shut up” attitude to avoid any scandals that would damage Labour’s lead. This suggests voters had largely made up their minds before heading to the polls.
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Policies and Manifesto
Conservative Party slogan = ‘Get Brexit Done’; key policy that helped break the Redwall (long-standing Labour safe seats)
Jeremy Corbyn = no clear plan for Brexit; ⅓ of his voting base were Brexiteers
Labour manifesto was too wordy; Conservatives opted for a very slim manifesto (different from Theresa May in 2017)
Counter Argument: People don’t read manifestos and policies; slogans resonate better
Corbyn was extremely unpopular due to anti-semitism scandal; ran a poor campaign
Media did not like him; Sun would villainise him (‘THE SUN SAYS If Boris Johnson wins today, a bright future begins… but if Jeremy Corbyn gets in, the lights will go out for good’)
Corbyn dubbed the ‘most dangerous man to run for high office’ by the Sun.
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Influence of the Media
Decline in trust of broadcast media:
BBC: 81% in 2003 -> 47% in 2020
ITV: 82% in 2003 -> 41% in 2020
Daily Mirror and Guardian investigation into whether Dominic Cummings broke lockdown rules (2020) became lead story across social and broadcast media: print media lead on issues and more trusted broadcasters follower
influence of media in the sacking of Suella Braverman- pressure mounted on Rishi Sunak after criticism of police in regards to pro-palestine protests/demonstrations
Rochdale by-election 2024 - George Galloway used the media to put out his pro palestine views, appealed to the muslim voters and voters concerned with the issue using media and was able to win the election.
