Voting behaviour and the media

Question 1

1979 election stats

Answer 1

Turnout 76%, majority 43 with 44% of popular vote.

Question 2

1997 election stats

Answer 2

Turnout 71%, majority 179 with 43% of popular vote.

Question 3

2010 election stats

Answer 3

Turnout 65%, no majority with 36% of popular vote but coalition lead to majority 77.

Question 4

2019 election stats

Answer 4

Turnout 67%, majority 80 with 44% of vote.

Question 5

Manifestos and policies 1979

Answer 5

Both sides moderate manifestos, Callaghan resisted pull to left from within party, Thatcher gave no indication she would lead towards right only briefly mentioned privatisation, therefore left couldn’t weaponise this.

Question 6

Election campaigns 1979

Answer 6

Conservatives hire professional publicity specialists and Thatcher commit to photo campaign eg picture holding a calf, Callaghan still led in polls, Thatcher turn down televised interview for this reason public were more confident in him.

Question 7

Political context 1979

Answer 7

Weakness of the minority Labour government, should have called election earlier but didn’t, winter of discontent followed mass strikes and media portrayal of a miserable Britain, Callaghan seen as out of touch ‘crisis? what crisis?’ headline, had lost vote of no confidence which triggered election.

Question 8

Manifestos and policies 1997

Answer 8

Labour entering age of New Labour, less radical policy to appease and win over discontented right, appear tough on law and order after rising crime rates in 1990s, links with business developed, win over the Sun, constitutional issues included more in line with Lib Dems so encouraged tactical LD voting in marginal seats, stressed specific policy detail such as reducing primary school class sizes.

Question 9

Election campaign 1997

Answer 9

Labour developed professional vote winning machine with public relations experts employed, and targeted marginal seats, candidates carried pledge cards, that most subsequent party campaigns have copied, however their lead actually declined throughout the campaign, and vote rose more in constituencies they didn’t target.

Question 10

Political context 1997

Answer 10

Conservatives had lost reputation as efficient managers of the economy, after ‘Black Wednesday’ despite relative economic improvement since, period of Tory ‘sleaze’ sex and financial scandals.

Question 11

Manifestos and policies 2010

Answer 11

Little difference between three major parties all pledged cuts to deal with budget deficit from financial crash, but Conservatives said would cut immediately.

Question 12

Election campaign 2010

Answer 12

Conservatives had been consistently targeting marginal seats but still could not secure majority, media focused on Brown caught calling a voter a ‘bigoted woman’ but he was already behind in the polls, televised debates for three main leaders that Clegg did well in by occupying the centre ground, Brown criticised for his ‘I agree with Nick’ stance.

Question 13

Political context 2010

Answer 13

Brown accused of cowardice for not calling an early election in 2007 to secure his own mandate, then had to grapple with financial crash, got little political credit for his handling of it, harsh treatment by the media and Cameron lead in polls.

Question 14

Class-based voting

Answer 14

Up until 1970s, working class people strongly inclined to vote labour due to association with the trade union movement, middle class and ‘white collar’ workers more conservative due to private property and wealth, decline in this as more social mobility, sale of council houses by Thatcher, decline of heavy industry and reduction of the size of the public sector due to privatisation, New Labour benefitted by appealing across class, Boris turn red wall through Brexit labour issues. However still more likely for highest classes to vote Conservative and vice versa, and correlation to turnout as more likely to vote if feel you have more of a stake eg property.

Question 15

Partisanship

Answer 15

Also decline in voter attachment to a party, historically dictated by family, community and work but people less likely to stay in same industry whole life, now most people floating/swing voters, also due to growing disillusion or apathy, less of a core vote for two main parties, 81% in 1979 and 65% in 2010.

Question 16

Rational choice voting

Answer 16

Idea voters are like consumers picking best option for them, linked to rise in education as more people are politically engaged, criticised as too simplistic, extended to include governing competency judgements by voters, good management of the economy and strong united leadership eg faith weakened in Con after John Major and in Labour after financial crash, or swayed by the ‘feel good factor’, move towards ‘presidentialism’, leaders appearance increasingly managed to avoid awkwardness such as with Browns ‘bigoted woman’.

Question 17

Gender voting habits

Answer 17

Historically women more conservative, possible link to role in family and social stability, New Labour reversed trend in younger generation, targeted campaigning eg mumsnet, free nursery places, all women shortlists, the pink bus.

Question 18

Age voting habits

Answer 18

Older more likely to vote conservative as more likely to own property, and less idealistic with idea of fundamentally changing society, 2010 44% over 65s voted conservative so Cameron did not cut pension whilst Lab and LD argued for some restrictions, older much more likely to vote, younger more likely to be alienated from system.

Question 19

Ethnicity voting habits

Answer 19

Minorities more likely to vote labour because of their efforts to promote multi-culturalism and anti-discrimination, also linked to class, as disproportionately in low-wage jobs, 2010 preferred labour 60% to 16%, 2019 64% to 20%, also significantly lower turnout.

Question 20

Region voting habits

Answer 20

Strong regional bias, prosperous areas with high home ownership like most of the south are typically conservative, industrial and urban areas in the north typically labour, this also has class dimension, and more affluent areas have higher turnout as they have more of a stake.

Question 21

Class descriptors by UK national statistics

Answer 21

AB - higher managerial, administrative and professional occupations
C1 - supervisory or junior managerial, administrative and professional occupations
C2 - skilled manual occupations
DE - semi skilled and unskilled manual occupations, unemployed and lowest grade

Question 22

Class analysis from key elections

Answer 22

In 1979 59% ABC1 voted conservative compared to 34% DE but this gap lessened in 2010 to 39% to 31%. In 2019 C2 was actually more likely to vote conservative than ABC1.

Question 23

Gender analysis from key elections

Answer 23

In 1979 39% of men voted conservative compared to 43% of women but 2019 flipped to 46% to 43%.

Question 24

Ways people access media

Answer 24

Newspaper circulation has declined but still read online, turn to social media, television coverage dominates elections, estimated 9.6 million watched the first 2010 leaders’ debate, however viewership declining just 3.5 million watched 2017 Theresa May debate.

Question 25

Opinion polls

Answer 25

Run by firms like Ipsos MORI, become integral part of campaigns, not always accurate eg Major’s 1992 victory, high labour polling caused high conservative turnout, 2015 Conservative victory, problems with not asking enough retired people.

Question 26

Changing use of media

Answer 26

Rise of social media eg success of Obama in using social media in 2012 lead to others, importance of social media for Labour under Corbyn, in UK 41% of 18-24s says social media is main source of news, increasing use of media to make policy announcements rather than in House of Commons eg 2021 Speaker Hoyle anger over budget briefing to media.

Question 27

Media and democracy

Answer 27

Free media a vital part of democracy, can hold governments to account, however concerns about oversimplification and focus on personalities, media tycoons can’t be held to account like politicians can, needed by pressure groups to mobilise opinion therefore important for pluralistic democracy.

Question 28

2011 phone hacking

Answer 28

Murdoch’s employees involved in phone hacking, led to closure of News of the World and reduced trust in media, Independent Press Standards Organisation created in response, this in turn prompted controversy over freedom of speech.

Question 29

Bias in media

Answer 29

Papers and press very partisan and little regulation, terrestrial TV must be balanced, BBC charter political neutrality which other channels largely follow, parties allocated calculated time for campaign broadcasts, internet has no regulation so likely to be the most biased.

Question 30

How much influence do the media have?

Answer 30

Sceptical over whether media can actually change voting behaviour, people tend to read papers which reflect existing political views, therefore press is useful as reflective of national views eg 2010-2015 only the Mirror still backed Labour, press can shape political agenda and valence issues eg post office scandal picked up by the media, social media creates echo chambers and polarisation and emphasise fragmented, personalised nature of modern politics.

Question 31

Media in the 2019 election

Answer 31

Worrying trends reach new low, social media heighten polarisation, misinformation, claims of heavy anti-Corbyn bias even from broadcasters. Brexit was 15% of coverage everything else under 10, presidential, reinforced by 2 leaders debates with 7m audience each, 35% of viewers said important in helping to decide vote, steep paper circulation falls 25% since 2017 but still setting Brexit agenda, controversy over Johnson refusal of tough BBC interview, Labour accuse of bias, new Facebook policy prevent microtargeting, nevertheless 44% used BBC most and other regulated sites.