Voting Behaviour And The Media Flashcards
1
Q
How was social class and status a key factor in general elections results?
A
- up until the early 1970s it was a strong influence
- class voting was influenced by self interest
- each party was refined by protecting and representing different classes
2
Q
When did class dealignment start and what was it’s impact?
A
- since 1970s
- Thatcher was able to win 3 consecutive elections by winning support of working class
- Blair won 3 consecutive elections for Labour by winning support of middleclass
3
Q
Why did class dealignment come about?
A
1) society and economy changing
- declining importance of traditional blue collar jobs
- less pronounced differences between classes
2) parties changing their policies and try to appeal to all classes to win elections
4
Q
How is age a determinant of voting choice in the UK
A
- very strong factor
- older voters more likely to vote Con (2019, 22% 18-29= Con, over 60% over-60s= Con)
- turnout higher in older voters (2017, turnout in 65+ was around 25 percentage points higher than in 18-24)
5
Q
What is region’s effect on voting behaviour?
A
- used to be labour in north and Con in south
- now large city = Labour, rural area= Con
6
Q
What is class and social status effect on voting behaviour?
A
- limited importance
- 2019 - 42% of those in AB category (managerial) voted Con compared to 48% from working class
- 2017 - 59% of those in DE category voted Labour
- 2917 72/100 labour constituencies were working class
7
Q
What is education level effect on voting behaviour?
A
- shown itself to be a key dividing line
- less qualified tend to support Con and more qualified with Labour and lib dem’s
- EU referendum: without qualifications voted 75% for Leave and with uni degrees went 75% Remain
- 2019 election: Con party won 58% of vote from people whose highest level of education was GCSE or lower (YouGov stats)
8
Q
What is the effect of ethnicity on voting behaviour?
A
- 2019- 1 in 5 labour ethnic minority, 1 in 20 con
- Turnout is also generally lower among BAME voters
9
Q
What is the effect of gender on voter behaviour?
A
- Women used to be more likely to vote Con, but now effect of gender is marginal
- Bigger difference among youth though
- 2019: (18-24 age group) Con won 15% of women’s vote, but 28% of mens
10
Q
What is rational choice theory?
A
- Voters behave like consumers by looking at the available choices and evaluating which is best for them
- Linked to growth of more educated electorate, especially with internet
11
Q
What is issue based voting?
A
- similar to rational choice but suggests voters vote based on the policy they deem the most important even if they are not aligned with the partys other policies
- 2019: 74% of Leave voters voted for Con
12
Q
What is a valence issue?
A
- When there isn’t significant disagreement between parties so voters just choose based on which one will be most effective in government
- Important in 2010 and 2015 elections when there were fewer policy differences between the parties
13
Q
VALENCE ISSUES: How important is Leadership?
A
- public image of party leaders has become more important
- ‘Presidentialisation’ for British politics since 1979 election like in the US due to media focus
- Leaders are seen as important in winning over swing voters and unifying the party
- HOWEVER, influence of leaders can be overstated. things like locals MPs, and social factors can be more important
14
Q
VALENCE ISSUES: How important is competence?
A
- the performance of the current government is and important factor in voting
- 1997: Con thrown out after dropping behind in the polls after Black Wednesday in 1992 (wrecked their reputation of being economically competent)
15
Q
What is a campaign?
A
- the 6 weeks before an election
- parties publish manifestos and try win over voters through things like the media, ads, TV debates
16
Q
How important are campaigns to voters?
A
- many voters only pay attention to politics during this time period, so can be highly important, especially if key events happen
- however, importance may be overstated as many voters will have already made up their minds (and dont base their choices on short term events
17
Q
How newspapers can have an effect during elections?
A
- Con launched their manifesto in Telegraph newspaper 2019
- Night before 2017 election, Daily Mail published front page attacking Labour Party and urging ppl no to vote for them
18
Q
How does the media in general have a big impact on elections?
A
- parties try to control their media appearance
- 2019: Johnson refused to be interviewed by Andrew Neil, fearing impact a mishap could have on the campaign
- TV debates and interviews are key moments
- Key moments can go viral on social media
19
Q
Arguments saying the media has little impact on elections?
A
- some voters have strong allegiances to parties and are unlikely to be swayed by media
- most individuals consume media they already agree with, so may be argued to not have much of an impact
- other issues like valence and social uses can be seen as more important
20
Q
1979 GENERAL ELECTION: General overview of result and impact?
A
- began 18 years of conservative rule (Thatcher until 1990 then Major until 1997)
- end to post-war consensus
- After Callaghans minority Labour gov lost a vote of no confidence in the HoC
- 76% turnout
21
Q
1979 GENERAL ELECTION: Economic, and political context?
A
- ‘Winter of Discontent’: series of strikes after gov tried to impose 5% limit on pay increases
- Con used slogan ‘Labour isn’t working;
- Labour looked weak, especially after result of Scottish and Welsh referendums that went against them
22
Q
1979 GENERAL ELECTION: Social factors?
A
- Thatcher tried to appeal to working class in her ‘Essex Man’ strategy, policies like Right To Buy council houses and support of small businesses
- Was successful, as Con gained support from working class as well (winning 11% of C2 and 9% DE)
23
Q
1979 GENERAL ELECTION: How effective were the campaigns?
A
- Con - ‘Labour isn’t working’ was very effective
- Thatcher used photo opportunities, such as a picture of her holding a newborn calf
- Campaign in general had little impact on result as con was so far ahead
24
Q
1997 GENERAL ELECTION: Overview of result and impact
A
- Removed con from office for first time in 18 years
- Started 13 years of Labour (Blair until 2007, then Brown)
- turnout of 71%, Labour won 43% of vote
- Con 31% (worst result since 1832)
- Lib Dem 17%
25
1997 GENERAL ELECTION: Declining importance of class?
- Labour managed to win over middle class votes (including in Con heartland of South East) while maintaining support of working class
- Able to do this as shifted party policy significantly to centre
26
1997 GENERAL ELECTION: Effect of rational choice?
- Blair drove forward policy of modernisation and abandoned old fashioned part policies like nationalisation, tax increases and strengthening of Trade Union powers
- tougher on crime (rising issue since early 1990s)
- Constitutional reform policies shared common ground with Lib Dems to vote tactically for Labour in marginal seats
27
1997 GENERAL ELECTION: Effect of leadership?
- Blair was very popular across country
- Contrasted with Major, who was seen as weak and boring (also cash for questions scandal)
28
1997 GENERAL ELECTION: Effect of perceived competence?
- “Black Wednesday” was well remembered by voters
- From then on, Labour were consistently ahead in polls and so had an easier time presenting themselves as an economically competent party
29
1997 GENERAL ELECTION: Effect of the media?
- Labour won the endorsement of as lot of the press, including the Sun and the Times
- message was that new Labour was a moderate part with the interests of ‘middle England’ at heart
- ‘The Sun Backs Blair’
30
1997 GENERAL ELECTION: Effect of social factors?
- Labour gained among most groups of the population
- Gained among all classes, especially middle class
- Gained among white and BAME voters
31
2010 GENERAL ELECTION: Overview of results and impact?
- Brown and Labour were removed from office, ending New Labour era
- first postwar coalition
- coalition survived full term, partly due to Fixed Term Parliament Act Lib Dem’s had insisted on
- turnout of 65%
- Con 36%
- Labour 29%
- Lib dem 23%
32
2010 GENERAL ELECTION: Effect of the campaign and TV debates?
- Brown met a voter that embarrassed him in Rochdale and he called her a “bigoted woman”, media loved him (but Labour was already behind in polls, and rochdale was labour)
- TV debates featuring the 3 leaders used
- Clegg got boosted in opinion polls
33
2010 GENERAL ELECTION: Effect of valence and leadership?
- Con focused attacks on Labour’s alleged mismanagement of the economy - opinion polls agreed (59%) that most of extra money spent by Labour had been wasted
- when brown became PM he made it seem like he would call an election in Autumn to secure a personal mandate, but then he didn’t. He was ridiculed
- cameron was a very popular candidate
34
2010 GENERAL ELECTION: Effect of policy?
- Little difference between the 3 main parties on the need to reduce budget deficit which increased after the 2008 financial crash
- only real differences were in the timing and extent of the cuts
35
2010 GENERAL ELECTION: Effect of wider political and economic context?
- 2008 financial crash and then the recession dominated the election and was important in decreasing Labour’s popularity among the electorate
36
How does the press play a role in politics?
- Newspapers have no obligation to be neutral and have political biases
- Most seem to be more conservative-leaning
37
Arguments that the press is significant in politics?
- Around 7 million people read newspapers daily in the UK, particularly older voters who are also more likely to vote
- Con who have won the last 4 elections have done so with the aid of the majority of the press
- online newspapers also read
38
Arguments that the press is not significant in politics?
- In 2022 Daily Mail had a circulation of 909 000 compared to 1.85M in 2012 and 2.4M in 1997
- Most people read papers that broadly reflect their outlook, so papers usually just confirm their readers existing views
- unlikely that press CHANGES peoples voting behaviour
39
Examples that support the press having a big impact in politics?
- The top 2 newspapers (Sun and Mail) backed Con in last 3 elections
- 1992 - “Sun wot won it” claimed to have won the election after editorials that poked fun at Neil Kinnocks
- 2019 - Tories partly launched their manifesto in Telegraph
40
Examples that support press not having big impact on politics?
- YouGov polling reported that 30% of Sun readers and 39% of FT readers voted Labour in 2017, despite them backing Con
- run up to 2017 election, Corbyn had very bad press image (Daily Mail front page of ‘Corbin’) but still did much better than expected
41
How do TV and radio play a role in politics?
- for most channels like BBC, news coverage is supposed to be neutral and balanced
- important for media coverage of elections
- parties are allocated an agreed amount of airtime for their election broadcasts, based on their voting share in the last contest and the number of constituencies they’re contesting
42
Arguments for TV and radio playing a significant role in politics?
- it helps voters from an opinion about he leaders themselves
- TV debates are important during election periods for shaping views
- Between elections, it allows the politicians to be held to account through things like interviews
43
Examples for TV and radio playing a significant role in politics?
- a lot of the negative images around Corbyn focused on his ‘scruffy’ appearance rather than his policies
- 2017 - Theresa May refused to tale part in a head on head TV debate with Corbyn and it made her look weak
- Survey in the run up to 2015 election: 62% cited television as the strongest influence, vs 25% for papers
44
Arguments that TV and radio are NOT significant?
- like with the press, it often reinforces political views rather than changing them
- TV and radio can be seen as less important to younger voters who are more likely to get information from social media or the internet
45
Examples of TV and radio not being significant in politics?
- In run up to 2010 election, Nick Clegg enjoyed a boost in polls following the first TV debate. but it was short lived and voters swung back to main 2 parties
- 2019 TV debates didn’t result in polls changing much after, with neither leader coming massively out on top
46
How do social media and the internet play a role in politics?
- By 2015, social media became important, e.g Con spent £100,000 a month on Facebook advertising
- Internet isn’t subject the same neutrality rules as TV and can be highly partisan
- Online advertising on social media is a problem as it is difficult to track where money is being spent and whether it is within the legal limits. It is also easy for non-party supporters to spend a great deal without declaring
47
Arguments that internet and social media are significant in politics?
- central to how younger voters consume political information and shape their views
- can lead to certain scandals going viral
- targeted advertising on social media highly important to how parties try to reach voters
48
Examples of how the internet and social media are important in politics?
- 2015 Survery: indicated that 79% of 18-24 year olds relied almost totally on online sources to inform themselves
- according to WhoTargetsMe, labour spent over £1.4M on Facebook advertising in the 2019 election
49
Arguments that the internet and social media do NOT play a significant role in politics?
- A lot of the political coverage on social media is dominated by traditional forms of media, with journalists using it to report news
- These considerations also tend to not apply to the older generation who are more likely to vote and also get their news from press and TV
50
How to opinion polls play a role in politics?
- Polls run by firms such as Ipsos MORI and YouGov aim to see the popularity of parties by asking people how they will vote
- Parties use opinion polls to gauge the popularity of different policies
- Exit polls are often the first indication of the election result
51
Examples of opinion polls and their accuracy?
- 1992: failed to predict Major’s narrow victory, instead polls predicted hung parliament or narrow labour victory
- 2015: predicted Labour being wiped out by SNP, and predicted Con and Labour would both have around 34% in England (was more 37% Con and 30% Labour). Poll surveyed too many politically engaged young people and not enough retired ones
- 2017: few polls predicted that Labour would make significant gains and stop Tory majority
- 2019 was quite accurate
52
Arguments that opinion polls are significant in politics?
- Turnout is more likely to be higher if polls indicate a close election (e.g 2015 and in Brexit, that had higher turnouts)
- If an election seems decided, people may not bother or may use vote to protest (strong argument that this is why Corbyn gained support in 2017)
- Allows voters to vote tactically as it gives an idea of who will win in their area
- can be seen as important in shaping party policies
53
Arguments that the media is important in holding the government to account between elections?
- Media was crucial in exposing Partygate scandal, through receiving leaks
-Ministers are questioned by journalists daily, where failings can be exposed. Especially true of Johnson’s government, where ministers were asked to defend the undefendable
54
Arguments that the media is NOT important in holding the government to account between elections?
- Parliament has more important role into that
- Allgeations of bias against BBC from both sides of political spectrum (e.g with Laura Kuenssberg being accused of spreading fake news to benefit Conservative)
- Parties will seek to control the news agenda (Blair recruiting a press secretary, Alastair Campbell, the political editor of the today newspaper at the time)
55
Arguments that the media has a positive impact on democracy?
- Free media is a vital feature of a healthy democracy, especially when parliamentary opposition is weak
- Allows more people to have a voice and participate in politics
- TV and radio coverage is less biased than other forms, due to the neutrality of channels like BBC
56
Arguments that the media has a negative impact on democracy?
- Often too much focus on leaders than policies, as they are driven by getting as many clicks as possible
- Newspapers are notoriously partisan and will alter their allegiance in response to changing circumstances
- Newspaper owners are primarily interested in boosting their circulation figures and can’t be held to account the way politicians can
- Governments have been making important policy announcements in TV studios rather than in HoC, seen as detracting from the role of parliament which is elected to perform this role
