Voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
what are the general factors that can effect voting behaviour
- Social factors
- Political factors
- the media
List the social factors tahn can effect voting behaviour
- Class
- Gender
- Age
- Education
- Ethnicity
- regein
List the Political factors that effect voting behavior
- The Manifesto
- The Campeign
- The leadership
- Persived Governeing competence
- Current political issues ( Issue/imstramental voting)
What is issue based voting also known as
Instramental voting
What are the differnt classes
A= Upper class
B= Middle class
C1= lower middle class
C2= skilled working class
D= semi skilled working class
E= casual workers
To what extent has voting behabiour changed in recent years interns of Class based voting
(1 ex of partazan alignment, 4 ex (Thatcher- borris of disalignment)
Mass partizan disalignemnt
* in 1945-1970 voting was primarily partisan
1. for example in 1964, Labour won 64% of the vote of DE voter meanwhile the conservaives won 78% of the vote of AB voteres
1. before
- However, due to the structual ecconomic chace of the Uk economy, and the growing middle class sice the 1970, partizan disalignment has occured
1. for example 1979, due to the winter of dicontent attributed to michel foot, Thatcher expirenced an 11% swing of C2 voters an 9% swing of D,E voters -cousil housed
2. Blair made disproportional swings into all class groups including 11% in AB
3. In 2017, perhaps shockingly, jerrmy corbin made mass strides amung AB voters ( educated), meanwhile may did the same for DE voters.
4. In 2019 Borris say the so called fall of the Labour “Red Wall” in the North. An estmated 20% of labours safe seats went blue. Thsi included Heartly pool, a longstanding consituency that has never not been Labour
5. however Brexit
Give a exaple of how voting used to be very class based
In 1964 the conservatives won 78% of the vote of A,B voters meanwhile Labour won 64% of the vote of D,E voters and the rest were voting liberal
What % swing of C2 voter and DE voters did Thatcher expirenec
- an 11% swing in C2 voters
- an 9% swing in DE voters
what % of Labour safe seats went blue in the 2019 election
20%
To what extent is regional voting changed over time and why
(2)
people voting nationalistically
* This has been very previlant in scotland since the failer of the scotish inderpendnec refurendom in 2014
1. Scotland in 2015 votes 56 SNP meambers to their 59 seats in parliament vs in 2010 where labour had 41 of seats and The SNP only 6
A possible lesserning of the NS devide
* more recent regenerative investment in the North may be lesserning the NS devide so that Labour may be losing support up here.
1. for example 11% of seats changed hand in 2017
2. And in 2019 fall of the red wall= 20% of safe labour seats going blue
3. might just be because of Brexit
* more industry in the north - more of a fear of foreig unskilled ladour takign jobs- agaist free movemtn and UK, internally parties change to conservative being pro leave not labour, this resulted in partizan disalignemtn in north- labour red wall ?????? IS THIS REGEINOAL !!!!
What is the welsh national part called
Plaid Cymru
What % of seats changed hands in the 2017 election
11%
give 2 sequenical pieces of evidnec that voting behaviour is effected by age ?
- In 2017 27% of 18-24 year olds voted Conservative vs 62% that voted labour vs in 2017 61% of 65+ voter voted Conservative vs 25% who Voted labour
- Tuen out amungs 18-24 year olds is the lowest in society at 47% vs 65+’s witch is 78%, this gives the conservatives at an inbuilt a advantage
Why are young people more likly to vote Labour and older people Conservative
(2)
Younger people have less of a “stake in society” than older people. e.g. They are less likly to be in the upper tax bracket or have a morage. Therefore, they are less enclined to support consrative policies as they wont beifit from them first ahnd, where as thye might from labour polices. e.g a higher minimum wage.
Young people might also be more likly to have a more progressive mindset, due to their growing up in amore liberal society and teh culture of univercity. Therefore they might be more likly to support Labour and Libdems as they are seen as more socially progresive
Give a statistic to suggest that ethnicity is a significant factor in determining voting behaviour/election results
73% of BAME residence voted Labour vs just 40% of the general population (2017) (highest of any social group in society )
To what extent has voting behaviour changed in terms of education + why ?
- In the 1900s conservative voters tended to be the most highly educated but in recent years this has shifted so in 2017 48% labour voters has a degree vs only 32% of conservative voters
* due to partisan dealignment. A degree used to mean you were garenteedd a job and a good wagethey but this is not the case anymore as tehy are so common with 35% of the population having them
* also more yong peopel have a degree than ever before, meaning more younf peopel have degrees and as we already astablished the yunger one is the more linkly they are to be a labour supporter
* C2 voters and D,E voters are more likly to feel threttened by imagration and non british workers taking their jobs. They are also less likly to have degrees, this makes them more likely to vote conservative vs labour as labour is much softer on immigration
How has voting behaviour changed in terms of gender and why
**In 1979 women were more likly to vote Conservative. **
1. 47% of women voted conservative vs 35% labour
* Thatcher being the first female PM, she branded herself as a “house wife” and the “ion lady”. This menat she appealed to women/mothers who upheld traditional conservtive values as well as the progressive spirit of the 1980’s with women entering the work force in full force and being able to do it all, motherhood and a thriving carea.
1. vs in 2017 43% of women voted Conservative and 42% voted labour
* this could be becuse labour are arguablly more foccuses on social equallity and progressive values which can be more important to women as an opressed geoup in society.
* this is a very perswasive agrument as only 18 % of woem 18-24 voted conservatie vs 36% of men and in general social justice tends to be an exadurated issue amung young people.
what % of conservative vs labour voters have degrees
48% of labour supporters have degrees vs only 32% of Conservative
What % of women voted labour Vs conservative 2017
43% voted conservative vs 42% Labour
what % of women vs men aged 18-24 voted conservative
18% of women
vs 36% of men
List the areas that voting behaviour have changed in
- Class based voting
- gender based voting
- regein based voting / ( and increse in instramnet + nationalitsic)
- education based
give 5 examples of How persived governing compitance can effect voting behaviour
- James Caleghan’s failer to deal with the winter of Discontent 1978 and literlly had a confidence vote triggered on him , ( Rubish and bodies pilling in the streets due to streets), When he was asked his plan to deal with the crisis he famously remarked “what crisis”. This allowed for thatcher to take governemnt with a majority of 44 despite her notible unpoularity in the opion polls
- Jhon major, was sene to have no controle over his cabinet, e.g. he had to call a confidence vote on his own governemnt to get them to comply with the Maastrich treatie (joining the EU)
- more rescently people attribute corbins failer to make wades in UK politics to him seeing lack of government competancy
- Cameron acted as a leader rather than a manager working effectively with his cabinet from 2010-2015, giving each head of department significant controle over their area of policy making depite the coallison. This arguably helped tehm achive a majority of 12
- Threysa may had devisded cabinet over all she lost (loss 43 mebours by end of her leadership) and had a compleetly devided ( Soft/Hard brexitires cabinet) = her demise in 2017 losing 13 seats and minority of 13 and resignation in 2018
who was the labour leaders for 1979 and then 1980
- 1979= James Calleghan ( PM)
- 1980= Michael foot
Give the history of Thatcher’s majorities
- 1979= 44
- 1983= 144
- 1987= 102
Give examples of how leadership can effect voting behavior
- Thatcher was persived as stong and compitent the “Ion Lady” after the Fulklands war securing her a 144 seat majority in 1983
- Jhon majors landslide loss in 1997 to tony blair, he was persived as stiffand uncrasmatic and being controled by his cabinet.
- Blair branded hiself and acted as a charsmatci and “presidecial” priminsister, once he was on office he rarely consulted his governemnt. arguably people were drawn to his stong leadrship and charasmatic persona. This helped him secure a majority of 179 in 1997 and 167 in 2001
1. for example he didnt consult them before takign the vote on Iraq to parliament - 2017 may trying to campeign with “vote for Therysa may and strong leadership” despite her compleet lack of controle over her fairer to make any progress with Brext, resulting in her 2017 loss of 13 MP ging her aminority of 9
- Borris was persived as a ruthless and powerful leader after thraysa may, someone the public througth could get Brexit done. This helped his achive hsi majority of 80 in 2019
The tree key words to describe Tony Blair in his headership are
Presidencial, Charasmatic and Unilateral
Give the Histories of Tony Blair’s majorities
- 1997= 179
- 2001= 167
- 2005= 66
in an essay on the factors effectign voting behaviour, with two politcal factors should you combine
- Governing compitance and stongleadership
- the campeign and the maifesto
- and then do issue based voting as its own thing
what was the conservative majority 2015
12
5 pices of evidenec that parties campeign/manifesto effect voting behaviour/ their succsess in elections
- in 1983, michel foot, “ the longest suiside note in history, vs Thatcher branding Around her sucess in the fulklands as the “Ion Lady” and a “house wife”. = Thtcher gaing 144 majority up from 44 and 47% of the female vote. - sarchi and sarchi to help run the capeign
- Balir rebranded and reshaped new Labour witch, removing calause 4 calling for greater nationalisation and introducing his famous pleadge cards that contianed labours most favoured pledges in their manifesto.
- However, Neil Kinnock rebranded as new labour with the red rose and and hired a professional media company for the first time and lost to thatcher in 1987 and then major in 1992
- Borris 2019, campeigning on “Get Brexit done” and leveing up = 20% of labour safe seats turning blue, (the fall of the read wall) vs corbins wish wash brexit proposal of coninuing negotiations with a soft brexit
- 2017 may trying to campeign with “vote for Therysa may and strong leadership” despite …
- corbin was very vague in his 2019 manifesto around brexit and it was very socilaist lening - landslide defeat to tories with over 20% of labour seats changing hands
