Voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
1979 general election
Thatcher vs Callaghan Winter of discontent Thatcher-greengrocers daughter. Appeal to C1 and C2 voters Callaghan-weak and indecisive Conservative w/ with maj
2019 general election
Brexit election
Corbyn-too far left and policies unrealistic. No clear position on Brexit
Johnson-get brexit done
Crumble of red wall-working class loyal to Labour voted Tory
Anti-semitism scandal. Corbyn hounded by media
365-202 seats
1997 GE
Blair-179 maj. Youthful, charismatic New labour centre-left, wider appeal People sick of 18 years of tories-boring and uncharismatic leader, dull 43% vote share for 63% seats Sun backed Blair Mondeo man/worcester women-middle class appeal Support from all ethnicities and classes 418-165 seats
2017 GE
Hung parliament-confidence and supply w/ DUP
Corbyn not seen as a threat by media-encouraged young people to vote, of which most voted labour, via social media
Polls predicted a maj for Tory, Held to gain a bigger maj
Tory-317 Labour-262
‘Strong and stable govt’
Snap election-pre election vote of no confidence that failed by Corbyn due to Brexit deal
Factors: leaders. 2017/19
17-weak leadership, struggled to deal w/ Brexit aftermath, didn’t appear enough on campaign trails, dodged tv debates, negative campaign (people sick of it), complacent, underestimated corbyn, lacked central authority (Hill and timothy fired post election)
19-corbyn party division and shadow cabinet resignations, leadership challenge of Smith, antisemitism, RW media increased attacks on corbyn, Johnson seen as charismatic who could get Brexit done (leaver-won back votes lost by pro-remain May), collapse of UKIP/Brexit party (refused to stand on Tory seats. Allowed tories control RW vote)
Factors: policy. 2017/19
19-Labour’s reluctance to take stance on Brexit and 2019 pledge to offer vote on deal failed to convince voters
17-southern voters whose more liberal views were incompatible w/ Tory to traditional labour. Collapse of vote in Scotland-due to rise of SNP, labour won 7 seats in 2017 from 1 in 2015
Factors: age. 2017/19
17-age increases=increase in tory voters. Young people tended to vote Labour (2/3), Labour won 5/8 age groups, 57% turnout 18-10, 84% 70+, two biggest groups-post WW1 and baby boomers who vote Tory the most, age didn’t affect SNP or Lib Dem (% similar across all)
19-18 to 24 56% Labour (10% loss), 21% tory, tory chipped away at younger voters, tory voter age got younger 40-49, 41% T 35% L, Lib Dems consistently 10-14% in each group, 70+ 14% L 67% T
Factors: class
19- C2 42% T, 41% L, tories won lower social classes more convincingly than upper classes, t won every class )Johnson-peoples govt), C2DE 32% L 48% T. Being pro-eu seen as centrist. Working class thought immigration affected them 'taking our jobs' 17-some of Corbyns policies didn't appeal to all, decline in party loyalty, more policy based voting than class. A/B-49% tory, 38% Labour. C1-41t, 43l. C2-47t, 40l. DE-41t, 44l. No party won key classes or maj of classes, corbyn too LW for some typical labour voters
Factor: gender
17-43% T and L for females, 45-39 male
Men tend to vote tory-business, women relate to female PM, also more equal to men in terms of jobs. Equality act 2010-tories support equality
19-M 45-31 t, F 44-35 t. Gain of female voting tory, trend of m voting t about same. Policy not gender influence
Factor: media
2017-corbyn slick on SM, 79% telegraph readers voted tory (express, sun and mail also RW), media influence not as important i.e sun, guardian 73% labour, more people rejecting views of media? underestimated corbyn
2019-Piers morgan anti corbyn, the sun created labour division and painted corbyn as bad leader
Factor: ethnicity
17-65% ethnic minorities voted Labour helping them win in multicultural constituencies e.g kensington 32% BAME. Tories possibly lost 28 seats due to BAME unpop, gains in low minority ethnic comms
19-less likely to vote labour over antisemitism, majority probably still voted labour, Johnson’s past comments about muslims
Factors: region
17-regional voted followed expected lines but Labour won some high-profile seats that shocked people e.g Kensington, Labour won uni town votes, Tories stole UKIp votes in NE, SNP lost seats to L and T
19-Johnson broke red wall. End of class/region based voting?
