voting behaviour and media Flashcards
social factors- class
Class used to be the most important determinant of voting behaviour but it is becoming less influential. It does however remain significant.
2019: the Conservatives did better amongst C2DE voters (48%) than they did amongst ABC1 voters (43%)
social factors - age
This is a key factor. Older voters favour the Conservatives (and UKIP) very significantly. Young voters have a Labour bias and also tend to support the Green Party.
2019: for every 10 years older a voter is, their chance of voting Tory increases by around nine percent
social factors - region
There are wide regional variations in voting patterns.
2017: or the most part regional voting followed expected lines with labour dominating the north and london and the conservatives the south.
social factors- gender
There is virtually no difference in voting habits between men and women.
2019: Conservatives on 46% among men and 44% among women, and Labour on 31% among men and 35% among women.
voting trends - partisan dealignment and core voters
Dealignment, in political science, is a trend or process whereby a large portion of the electorate abandons its previous partisan (political party) affiliation, without developing a new one to replace it.
voting trends- valence
Many political commentators argue that valence is the most important indicator of how people vote. It is essentially when individuals vote based upon people’s judgements of the overall competence of the rival political parties. Usually on things such as: honesty, competency, ability to act in crisis. Everything that can be called their character.
E.g. 2015 anti Corbyn feeling
voting trends - party trends
Leaders are liked by the public for a number of key qualities. The public perception of leaders is becoming particularly important. Obviously the press have a big influence on this.
E.g. Nick Clegg 2010 leadership debates.
social factors - ethnicity
Ethnicity is a weakening factor in the UK (strong in the USA). More established immigrant groups move towards favouring the conservatives.
2017: 65% of ethnic minority voters voted Labour in the 2017 election.
voting trends - turnout
Turnout is variable and is affected by how close an election is expected to be (e.g. 78% in 1992 narrow Conservative win). Yet there is also and long-term downward trend especially since 1997. This can be explained by a rapid decrease in the voting figures for 18-34 y/o. Between 1992 and 2010 there was a 50% decrease in young voters. This is due to apathy, disillusionment, abstentions and a surge in interest in single issues.
voting trends - issue voting
Many voters, who are not committed to any particular party make a rational choice between the parties when voting based on the most salient (important) issues.
E.g. 2018 Brexit Election
voting trends - tactical voting
When voters in the UK general election feel that their first-choice vote will be wasted because it is for a party that has no chance of winning the constituency, they may change their vote to a second choice. By doing this they may have an influence on the outcome.
media - broadcasting
Television is the main source of political news for most voters. By law, it must remain neutral when reporting on political issues. For only the second time in UK TV history, and after much discussion between the parties and television companies, a series of live TV programmes were held before the 2015 general election.
media - the press
Newspapers, within the law of the land, are free to report the news and politics as they decide. Most have a political stance or viewpoint. Some political commentators argue newspaper support is crucial to electoral success.
media - social media
For many people new media is the way they access information. Most people can access the internet at home, work or through their mobile phones and politicians and political parties are investing heavily in the use of websites, blogs, podcasts and social networking websites like Facebook and Twitter as a way of reaching voters.
media - opinion polls
Opinion polls enable people to express views on important issues and can inform politicians about the views of groups of people. Most polls are carried out by seven main organisations – Populus, Survation, Lord Ashcroft, YouGov, Ipsos Mori, Opinium, ICM. They generally take a sample of 1000–2000 people from 50–100 constituencies. Some argue they can influence the result of the election by increasing turnout amongst certain groups (linked to turnout)
