Voting Behaviour Flashcards
Class and income
Historic
Roosevelt coalition - north/south and racial divisions in the 1960’s
Democrat identification with welfare and federal government tax and spend policies, minority rights and affirmative action cost them the white southern votes and high earning workers
Clinton ‘New Democrat’ less of minority rights and some welfare reform
2012- obama 60% less than 30,000 and Romney 52% 100,000
Regional voting
Due to the diversity and size of the nation it is very important
NE Democrat heartland
Obama won every single NE state in 2012
Population shift means the NE is becoming less populated which is bad for the democrats and in the 2010 reapportionment NY lost 2 EC votes and Texas gained 4 EC votes
Red blue divide
Congressional
Dem usually get around 60% of the vote in cities
Gender
Dem- female
Rep - male
Women clearly associated with dem and there is a clear gender gap on issues
2000 - dem 11% lead in females and rep 11% lead in mean
Women - tighter gun control, abortion, ERA, Medicare
Obama 15% female lead over McCain
Romney rape remarks and verbal gaffes ‘binders full of women’
Ethnicity
African American
2000- 9/10 black voters supported democrats and obama mobilised the black vote
Lower turnout in general and in 2012 the group made up only 13% of the electorate
95% obama In 2008 and 93% in 2012
Civil rights 1960’s Johnson confronted issues
White
Republican lead by 17% in 2004
Southern state republicans - not associated with civil rights, Reagan was seen as a god fearing anti-communist who would set America back on its feet
2008- dem made inroads into the south ; New Mexico, Colorado, n.carolina, Florida
2012 Romney - 59% white voters
Hispanic
Becoming more influential
Large families and as naturalised Americans their voting power will only increase as time progresses
Democrat
Republicans try to attract support
2008- bush speaks fluent Spanish and his brother had married a Hispanic so he mentioned these
McCain - 31% - hard line on immigration, patriotism, hardwork
Obama - 66%- targeted in primaries, hope/ change, worried about ‘Bradley effect’ in polls
2012- Romney released dia uno a campaign ad in Hispanic but obama won 71%
Religion
Major factor
Protestant
Rep have won every election since 1980
78% no religion votes obama
Catholics
On controversial issues; women’s rights, contraception, abortion never a united catholic response
The way the Catholic Church in America expresses its views does not seem to effect the way that catholics vote
92 and 96 Clinton won the catholic vote
2012- Romney won 48%
Jewish
Democrats
2000- gore 78%
Reasons are similar to that of the African American group; civil rights, affirmative rights, minorities.
2008 - obama disaffected the Jewish vote by sympathising with the Palestinian plight calling for dialogue so he put Biden on the ticket
Obama - 78%
2012 only made up 2% of the electorate
Age
2008- millennials (18-29) where a decisive factor
18% electorate
Obama won 65%
Tolerant society, race, gender, age etc
Drawn to radical policies to close gap between the rich and poor
Romney complained about PAACA
Older voters - wealthier and want to protect that wealth
Taxation
Obama 65% of 18-29 Romney 51% of 45-64
Party loyalty
12/16 of the last president elections the party that has gained the highest level of support from its ‘identifiers’ has gone on to win the election
Obama 92% of Democrat identifiers in 2008
Candidate who has won the independent vote in 7/9 elections went on to win the election
Issue/ policy voting
92 and 96 economy was the most important issues in the polls - Clinton victories with bush snr blamed for the recession in 92
Clinton promised healthcare reform and federal funding for education
2000- bush - ‘compassionate conservative’ ensuring Medicare and Medicaid were safe with him
2008- discontent over Iraq - obama change/ hope fighter regulation of wall st attracted voters
McCain struggled to divorce himself from the fact he supported the war
2012- economy- 59% obama claimed the economic situation was so bad that they were only now beginning to see the results of his economic stimulus package
Candidates and leadership
Personality
90’s Clinton seemed fresher, younger, charismatic
2000 - despite Obama’s lack of experience he was younger energetic had clear goals and surrounded himself with experiences Washington professionals eg Biden
Focus on change - ‘yes we can’ - skilful orator
2012 obama personality battle , hurricane sandy , Romney gaffes
Split ticket voting
Voting for candidates of different parties for different offices at the same election eg voting for a democrat president balanced by voting for a republican senator
Varies over time and from region to region
2012 - 6% split their ticket
Straight ticket voting is the opposite
Moe common in the south - conservative dems elected to Congress alongside rep presidents
Reasons for split ticket voting
Policy balancing / cognitive madisonianism
Different expectations - ‘home style politics ‘ fenno
Quality of candidate
Can translate to gubernatorial elections
Coattails effect
In decline due to increased polarisation
Red blue divide basics
Mid 1990’s - commentators began talking of a red blue divide as the US was becoming roughly equally divided between Republican and Democrat
2000- bush and gore ended up with approximately 49% of the vote
Stereotypical red America - male, white, Protestant, wealthy, rural and conservative on moral issues
Stereotypical blue America- female, white, ethnic minority, less wealthy, more secular and liberal in views
Red blue divide - ceaser and bussch
That there are some solid red and blue states but there are shades of purple
