Voting Behaviour Flashcards
What are the main theories of voting behaviour ?
Party Identification Model Butler/Stokes model- stable party identification from class socialisation Pultsar- Class determines everything
‘Issue voting’ Model / Rational choice theory
Position Voting - position on nationsalisation, welfare
Valence Voting - Best party to deal with something
Changes
More volatile voting, less party identification
Less voter turnout
Party Identification still present but seen as volatile/reconceptualised
Reasons for the changes
Decline in occupations and class Stress on the PM Media Ageing population Parties appeal across issues generally
Why has de-alignment happened in class based voting ?
Fall in manufacturing industries Fewer manual occupations Employment rise in service sector WC smaller than middle class IPSOS MORI- smei-skilled, unskilled and casual workers make up only 25 percent while managerial make up 25 percent. Harder to identify- cross-class jobs
Britain’s voting behaviour
Dealigned
valence voting ‘Judgemental voting’
Volatile
Why has party identification declined?
Different ways of reporting in the media
Education
1970’s- movement away from 2 main parties
voters committed to consensus ideologies dealigned after a lurch to the left /right
Ivor Crewe
New working class- Labour would lose out on vote unless it incorporated a wider stance into its image. 1974: 49% skilled working class vote 1983: 32% skilled working class vote Shows that class has become less aligned with party identification.
Working class conservative vote/ Middle class Labour vote
WC Cons vote: 1974: 25%, 1979-1992:40%
MC Labour vote: 1983:16%, 1997: 34%
Turn out rates
1945-70: 78% average
2001: 59%
Shows: loss of party identification, disenchantment with leaders, ageing population.
2010 Coalition Election
Fall in manual labour voters
Iraq War- Muslim voters reconnected with the party after it regained its image
Downsian Model
That parties need to catch as many voters as possible into the catchment appeal as possible without straying too far left/right to succeed.
Explains how conservatives have managed to maintain support of the WC by adapting policy.
Criticism- Too ideological/ simplistic, ignores competency voting.
Rational Choice Approach - Issue Voting
Argues: 2010 Elections were rational choice of key issues- economy, immigration, education being Conservatives area of expertise.
Rise in parties like UKIP for certain issues.
But: People don’t know detailed policy of parties.
May not agree with all issues of the party.
Voting more likely on overall image.
Thatcherite values did not poll as popular, shows preference for leader/image/ competency.
Gallup poll 1989 showed 73% agreed with spending more on social services with taxes.
‘Better off under the Tories’ more important than specific rational choices.
Non-voting
Social Differences : Age
Political mobilisation: Decline in Identification
Sense of citizen duty
2010- 45% of 18-24 voted
Stronger party iden + more likely to turn out
Party Identification
More than 3/4 said they identified with a party in 1964 and 1966 elections, of these 43% strongly identified with a party.
Two Party voting system 1945-70= 91% of the vote.
2001- Only 13% of people said they had a very strong alignment.
Party Membership declined from mid 1950’s to 2005:
Labour- 750, 000 to 215,000
Conservative- 2.5 million to 300,000
1992-1997: 1 million voters directly from conservative to labour.
Labour and Conservative votes less than 75% of vote since 1970 on average.
2010 election: 2 parties only had 61.5% of the vote.
Support for third parties almost doubled.
Shows: Dealingment and short term issue voting
Alford Index of Relative Class voting
Labours score of wc Vote
1964-42
1997-20
2010-17
Valence Voting
- Doesn’t require a knowledge of the government.
- Position voting: Issues
Nationalisation, Tax rate, immigration
-Valence Issues- Broad approach which to deal with better:
Education, Health care, economy conservatives more popular on.
Overall perception of the party is important: Conservatives for economy, immigration debt and crime.
YouGov 2010 Economy= 52% key issue
Why Valence issues more important?
Class dealignment
Parties seen as broadly agreeing on key issues
Judgement of overall competence of parties
Media- Party leader competence
Stability: Black Wednesday scarred Conservatives under Callaghan 1992 , pound devalued to under promised value, forced to leave ERM
Economic Factors
David Sanders- Not just economic factors but ‘feel good’ factors too e.g. job security, Conservatives viewed as working before 1992 election.
Black Wednesday- crash and tax rises
1997- Labour polled the best party to manage the economy
Most people thought the economy would improve/ stay the same under Labour
Labour played on fear of conservative economic crash in their campaign
IPSOS MORI- Conservatives had lead over Labour on the economy
Voters had little faith in issues like health, education so economy is important .
Governing Competencies
Various Factors
1992 despite economic downturn believed conservs would be better at managing the economy
Image- IPSOS MORI Poll 1997 over half said conservs were ‘out of touch’ compared to only 7% Labour.
2005- Fallen to 32% who thought out of touch which explains voting for Conservs.
Pippa Norris theory on Elections
- Maintaining Elections|: Left-right issues dominate
- Deviating elections: Changes towards short term issues i.e. economy, leader
- Critical Elections: Creates realignment in party identity, partisan alignment
Party Leaders
2010- 1 in 4 decided in the last few weeks of the campaign
1 in 4 changed their mind after PM debates
Perceptions more important since partisan dealignment
Limits to this: Not whole picture, as Callaghan preferred to Thatcher.
Polls on specific competencies may sway the judgement rather than overall likeability
e.g. Brown over Cameron and Clegg.
Cameron’s speech seen as the decisive moment for victory.
1997 Election
Catch all party, since the 1990’s.
Ideological shift of New Labour
1 million switched from conservatives to Labour at the time of the election.
Critical? Yes Labours new cross-class appeal No- Relatively few people felt strongly attached to new labour, decline in turn out and wc voters Rise in 3rd party political groups Not an enduring shift: Conservatives
2010 Election
Proved that shift to Labour was not enduring
Valence voting: Both parties in campaigns acknowledged that something had to be done about the debt but differed over position e.g. cuts
New Issue Clevages?
NOT a new alignment from class dealignment, but can explain rise of one issue parties.
Immigration- Conservatives had lead, but people did not change party vote from Labour just over this issue.
EU- Only ranked 10th in voter concerns 2010, did not give major gains
BNP-Assimilated
Shows: Unlikely to have much impact as a whole, new parties can rise but still not a challenge
Jane Green
Issue Voting Model
Conservatives incorporated into their campaign the issues which labour had a key advantage over such as health care.
Michael Howard- Incorporated Immigration into the campaign.
