Voting Behaviour

Question 1

What are the main theories of voting behaviour ?

Answer 1

Party Identification Model
Butler/Stokes model- stable party identification from class socialisation 
Pultsar- Class determines everything  

‘Issue voting’ Model / Rational choice theory
Position Voting - position on nationsalisation, welfare
Valence Voting - Best party to deal with something

Question 2

Changes

Answer 2

More volatile voting, less party identification
Less voter turnout
Party Identification still present but seen as volatile/reconceptualised

Question 3

Reasons for the changes

Answer 3

Decline in occupations and class 
Stress on the PM 
Media 
Ageing population 
Parties appeal across issues generally

Question 4

Why has de-alignment happened in class based voting ?

Answer 4

Fall in manufacturing industries 
Fewer manual occupations 
Employment rise in service sector 
WC smaller than middle class 
IPSOS MORI- smei-skilled, unskilled and casual workers make up only 25 percent while managerial make up 25 percent.
Harder to identify- cross-class jobs

Question 5

Britain’s voting behaviour

Answer 5

Dealigned
valence voting ‘Judgemental voting’
Volatile

Question 6

Why has party identification declined?

Answer 6

Different ways of reporting in the media
Education
1970’s- movement away from 2 main parties
voters committed to consensus ideologies dealigned after a lurch to the left /right

Question 7

Ivor Crewe

Answer 7

New working class- Labour would lose out on vote unless it incorporated a wider stance into its image.
1974: 49% skilled working class vote 
1983: 32% skilled working class vote 
Shows that class has become less aligned with party identification.

Question 8

Working class conservative vote/ Middle class Labour vote

Answer 8

WC Cons vote: 1974: 25%, 1979-1992:40%

MC Labour vote: 1983:16%, 1997: 34%

Question 9

Turn out rates

Answer 9

1945-70: 78% average
2001: 59%
Shows: loss of party identification, disenchantment with leaders, ageing population.

Question 10

2010 Coalition Election

Answer 10

Fall in manual labour voters

Iraq War- Muslim voters reconnected with the party after it regained its image

Question 11

Downsian Model

Answer 11

That parties need to catch as many voters as possible into the catchment appeal as possible without straying too far left/right to succeed.
Explains how conservatives have managed to maintain support of the WC by adapting policy.
Criticism- Too ideological/ simplistic, ignores competency voting.

Question 12

Rational Choice Approach - Issue Voting

Answer 12

Argues: 2010 Elections were rational choice of key issues- economy, immigration, education being Conservatives area of expertise.
Rise in parties like UKIP for certain issues.

But: People don’t know detailed policy of parties.
May not agree with all issues of the party.
Voting more likely on overall image.
Thatcherite values did not poll as popular, shows preference for leader/image/ competency.
Gallup poll 1989 showed 73% agreed with spending more on social services with taxes.
‘Better off under the Tories’ more important than specific rational choices.

Question 13

Non-voting

Answer 13

Social Differences : Age
Political mobilisation: Decline in Identification
Sense of citizen duty
2010- 45% of 18-24 voted
Stronger party iden + more likely to turn out

Question 14

Party Identification

Answer 14

More than 3/4 said they identified with a party in 1964 and 1966 elections, of these 43% strongly identified with a party.
Two Party voting system 1945-70= 91% of the vote.

2001- Only 13% of people said they had a very strong alignment.
Party Membership declined from mid 1950’s to 2005:
Labour- 750, 000 to 215,000
Conservative- 2.5 million to 300,000

1992-1997: 1 million voters directly from conservative to labour.

Labour and Conservative votes less than 75% of vote since 1970 on average.
2010 election: 2 parties only had 61.5% of the vote.
Support for third parties almost doubled.
Shows: Dealingment and short term issue voting

Question 15

Alford Index of Relative Class voting

Answer 15

Labours score of wc Vote
1964-42
1997-20
2010-17

Question 16

Valence Voting

Answer 16

• Doesn’t require a knowledge of the government.
• Position voting: Issues
  Nationalisation, Tax rate, immigration
  -Valence Issues- Broad approach which to deal with better:
  Education, Health care, economy conservatives more popular on.
  Overall perception of the party is important: Conservatives for economy, immigration debt and crime.
  YouGov 2010 Economy= 52% key issue

Question 17

Why Valence issues more important?

Answer 17

Class dealignment
Parties seen as broadly agreeing on key issues
Judgement of overall competence of parties
Media- Party leader competence
Stability: Black Wednesday scarred Conservatives under Callaghan 1992 , pound devalued to under promised value, forced to leave ERM

Question 18

Economic Factors

Answer 18

David Sanders- Not just economic factors but ‘feel good’ factors too e.g. job security, Conservatives viewed as working before 1992 election.
Black Wednesday- crash and tax rises
1997- Labour polled the best party to manage the economy
Most people thought the economy would improve/ stay the same under Labour
Labour played on fear of conservative economic crash in their campaign
IPSOS MORI- Conservatives had lead over Labour on the economy
Voters had little faith in issues like health, education so economy is important .

Question 19

Governing Competencies

Answer 19

Various Factors
1992 despite economic downturn believed conservs would be better at managing the economy
Image- IPSOS MORI Poll 1997 over half said conservs were ‘out of touch’ compared to only 7% Labour.
2005- Fallen to 32% who thought out of touch which explains voting for Conservs.

Question 20

Pippa Norris theory on Elections

Answer 20

1. Maintaining Elections|: Left-right issues dominate
2. Deviating elections: Changes towards short term issues i.e. economy, leader
3. Critical Elections: Creates realignment in party identity, partisan alignment

Question 21

Party Leaders

Answer 21

2010- 1 in 4 decided in the last few weeks of the campaign
1 in 4 changed their mind after PM debates
Perceptions more important since partisan dealignment
Limits to this: Not whole picture, as Callaghan preferred to Thatcher.
Polls on specific competencies may sway the judgement rather than overall likeability
e.g. Brown over Cameron and Clegg.
Cameron’s speech seen as the decisive moment for victory.

Question 22

1997 Election

Answer 22

Catch all party, since the 1990’s.
Ideological shift of New Labour
1 million switched from conservatives to Labour at the time of the election.

Critical?
Yes Labours new cross-class appeal
No- Relatively few people felt strongly attached to new labour, decline in turn out and wc voters 
Rise in 3rd party political groups 
Not an enduring shift: Conservatives

Question 23

2010 Election

Answer 23

Proved that shift to Labour was not enduring
Valence voting: Both parties in campaigns acknowledged that something had to be done about the debt but differed over position e.g. cuts

Question 24

New Issue Clevages?

Answer 24

NOT a new alignment from class dealignment, but can explain rise of one issue parties.
Immigration- Conservatives had lead, but people did not change party vote from Labour just over this issue.
EU- Only ranked 10th in voter concerns 2010, did not give major gains
BNP-Assimilated
Shows: Unlikely to have much impact as a whole, new parties can rise but still not a challenge

Question 25

Jane Green

Answer 25

Issue Voting Model
Conservatives incorporated into their campaign the issues which labour had a key advantage over such as health care.
Michael Howard- Incorporated Immigration into the campaign.