voting behaviour Flashcards
definition of voting
Voting is the act of choosing someone or something - such as a candidate, party or political notion – in an election – whether this a general election or a referendum
why is it hard to accurately pinpoint and categorise why each voter votes they way they do
it will differentiate from each individual as individuals may base their vote upon a number of issues/categories rather than a single one
What were many parties from the 1920’s onwards formed upon? and how did this affect voting behaviour
Many parties from the 1920’s onwards were formed or based around the social cleavages such as class, religion, ethnicity etc. that were present in society at the time which in turn led to party’s images being adapted around these social groups. Voter’s then attached themselves to a party they associated their social identity to being similar to and voted accordingly. voting was seen as an expression of loyalty to a party
what factors contributed to partisan dealignment (breaking away from the party you had loyalties/associations with)
Factors such as the deterioration of social divisions (such as class, race and religion), cross class locations, ideological disillusionment with party politics, cognitive mobilization (relying less on cues from parties on issues and forming individual opinions on complex politics) and the rise of television (and more recently the internet) are all key contributing factors towards the rise of partisan dealignment
two facts about partisan dealignment
By the 1990’s, a decline of over 10% of the proportion of party identifiers had occurred in countries such as Canada, Germany, Sweden and the USA and have followed a trend of decreasing since
Furthermore, in the UK, the percentage of the electorate who considered themselves ‘very strong’ party identifiers have barely a quarter of what it was in in the 1960’s
“In the 2010 election, Conservatives had a larger share of votes in constituencies with more professional and managerial workers, property owners, older voters, people with degrees and in more rural areas and Labour’s share of votes in constituencies reflect the mirror opposite of this” demonstrates what? and how could this be countered
This highlights that despite the loosening of party identification throughout the decades, the type of voters who vote for these parties are still in line with the party’s image therefore suggesting that the party image is still a strong factor in contributing to why voters vote the way they do. However, it should be considered that this evidence relates to constituencies and not individual voters which therefore make it difficult to explain the relationship between individual’s choice of vote and their social group
what is a position issue
position issues are issues where people take either one side or the other, such as the nationalisation of certain industries. With the exception of referendum’s, these have become increasingly insignificant in recent politics in influencing voters, as “the difference between parties on position issues become relatively small as they all crowd into middle ground”
what is a valence issue
issues where almost everyone takes the same side, such as preventing terrorism or reducing crime.
how might a valence issue form the voters decision
Upon evaluating the different candidate’s or party’s stances on, voters tend assess the party’s likely performance and competence in response to the issue. Furthermore, Denver, Carman and Jones argue voters tend to make a judgement on voting based upon one or two key issues and whether the government competently performed in them
3 counter arguments to valence issues forming voters decision
However, single valence issues (depending on the salience of the issue) tend to not only not influence as party choice as a whole but also only influence part outcome if there a great imbalance in perceived competence.
Scholars such as Heath, Jowell and Curtice (Heath, et al., 1985)as well as Rose and McAllister (Rose & I, 1990)dismiss that voting choices are made upon their views on issues but are instead formed on their ideological beliefs surrounding the issue. (however new evidence suggests valence issues influence voting behaviour more than ideological beliefs)
It should also be considered that pre-existing party association may influence judgements on valence voting, demonstrating the underlying significance of party image on voting behaviour.
The economy may be considered a significant valence issue depending on its ____
salience
evidence that salience of the economy affects the voters decision
in 2010 UK election, the 50% of voters said the economy was the most important issue surrounding the election due to the global economic climate. Yet in 2005 when the UK economy was experiencing a boom, only 5% of voters cited the economy as the most important issue surrounding the election
economic voting is often based upon the basis of what?
economic voting is often formed on the basis of the current governments economic performance rather than proposals of the opposition and is more likely to punish bad economic performances than rewarding good ones
what has become a more significant factor in recent elections in influencing voters
candidates and leaders
evidence about leadership linking to voting behaviour and a counter argument to it
In the 2010 election opinion poll trends in party support were closely related to the trends in voter’s overall satisfaction with the party leaders. Despite the close correlation between party support and reactions to leaders, one does not necessarily cause the other
evaluating leaders is a ____ to a more general evaluation of the party’s ___ in government
shortcut, competence
what are supply side arguments for voting behaviours
•Supply side: Political opportunity structure; party competition, party system/political system/electoral rules. Party Competition drives policy (POS). Party discourse shapes public opinion (DOS) arguments
what are demand side arguments for voting behaviours
• Demand – structure, people, from the bottom up. Social cleavages/structural conditions. Depending on cleavages people vote a certain way
difference between micro and macro level data
Macro-level: data that measures the aggregate of something. Micro-level: anything that denotes an individual’s characteristics or attitudes.
- Macro level: contextual factors tend to shape individual level attitudes
- Micro level: personal profile; age gender religion. Attitudes/values
Scholars tend to make micro level conclusions from macro level data which is called ____ fallacy
oncological
rise of parties are because of what?
opportunities in the party system
what did lipset and rokkan argue
certain social cleavages (like religion, class, region and ethnicity) are reflected in political parties
- lipset and rokkan maintained that these traditional divisions had been ‘frozen’ in political terms and back in 1967 european party systems still reflected the structure of societal divisions which had existed in the early twenties when the popular masses had made their final entry into democratic politics.
Why does demand (social cleavages/structural conditions) change?
- Exogenous trigger factors – migrations, economy, globalization, de-industrialization
- De-industrialization – move towards a service-based economy
- Shifts in public opinion
- New cleavages created?
- Declining political of religion and class is accompanied by the emergence of a new cleavage
what did Inglehart argue changes demand and an example he gave
Value cleavage (cultural/ transnational) between materialist and post-materialist orientations. Brexit as part of broader phenomenon of ‘cultural backlash’, similar to rise of trump, populist radical right parties across Europe.
what are party families
group of parties with similar ideological cores/agendas that can be grouped together for comparability
two main theories of party competition
- Party Competition drives policy (POS). Do voters from same left-right, libertarian-authoritarian pool? Socio-economic voting, attitudinal voting, electoral volatility
- Party discourse shapes public opinion/Discourse opportunity structure (DOS) - UKIP and immigration views: party itself, salient issue, issue ownership (UKIP = immigration, conservative = free market)
what is Kriesi’s 1998 argument?
- My main argument is that the decline of traditional cleavages does not necessarily signify the end of structuration of politics by social divisions
- Finds evidence of a division between segments of new middle class, which provides some structural basis for the current impact of values on political choices
- According to Kriesi, two dimensions structure the behaviour of the political parties: a socio economic and socio cultural dimension. Left-right seen as socio economic dimension
- Argues party positions and citizens positions largely structured by two dimensions; socio-economic and cultural
- structural cleavages are made by the winners and losers of globalisation
- The winners would be in favour of EU unification and have liberal views on individual rights and immigration, whereas the losers were expected to be largely Eurosceptic, conservative on issues of individual freedom and against the idea of the multicultural society
what does GAL and TAN stand for?
Green/alternative/libertarian
Traditional/authoritarian/nationalist
In relation to GAL and TAN what did Hooghe, Marks and Wilson (2002) find about party competition and more specifically about European integration?
- The most important finding of our research is that the new politics dimension of party competition, ranging from GAL to TAN, powerfully structures variation on issues arising from European integration. The association is strongest at the TAN pole, reflecting the strength of nationalism among radical Right parties. However, the new politics dimension also influences the positions of major parties. We find strong associations between party score on the GAL/TAN dimension, overall support for European integration, and support for particular aspects of European integration Left/right location influences support for European integration
- Extreme don’t get into governments so express contestation about eu integration
- Left didn’t agree with integration from the beginning
Van der Brug & Spanje counter Kreisi’s argument by claiming that ?
Kriesi et al. (2008) show that positions of citizens on the economic and cultural dimension can be explained to some extent by education and social class. Yet, they do not single out the specific group of citizens with ‘left-wing’ positions on economic issues and ‘right-wing’ positions on moral and cultural issues.
- they argue that party are not structured along two dimensions but are in fact economic
