Voting Behaviour Flashcards
What did Pulzer (1967) famously once claim?
‘Class is the basis of British politics; all else is embellishment and detail’
According to Denver et al. (2012) what was the proportion of non-manual workers voting Conservative in the 1960s? And in 2005 & 2010?
1960s - 60%
2005/2010 - 40%
Shows decline in traditional middle class vote
According to Ipsos MORI, how has the way middle class people vote changed since Oct 1974?
Middle class votes for Conservatives: Oct 1974 - 56%, 1997 - 39%, 2010 - 39% Votes for Labour: Oct 1974 - 19%, 1997 - 34%, 2010 - 27%
How does Ipsos MORI poll data show the change in the way the working class votes, compared with Oct 1974 and 2015?
Working class (C2) votes for Conservatives: Oct 1974 - 26%, 2015 - 30% Working class (C2) votes for Labour: Oct 1974 - 49%, 2015 - 32%
How do bottom-up explanations claim that class voting has decline over the last 40 years?
Result of changes in UK economy and society, e.g. Shift to non-manual work, growth of service sector, greater affluence, higher levels of education
How do top-down explanations claim that class voting has declined?
Changes are a result of parties’ own strategies e.g. Poor government performance in office, ideological disjuncture between parties and supporters, rise of catch-all parties (New Labour and its ideological convergence)
What did Ivor Crewe (1984) identify?
A ‘new’ working class - non-manual workers, owner-occupiers, Southern, no Union membership, work in the private sector. As opposed to traditional working class, which means social class is different now.
What do Evans and Tilley (2011) argue is the most effective explanation for the decline in class voting?
The strategic ideological convergence of the main parties (but as response to structural transformation - shrinking working class) as opposed to class heterogeneity approach (that few individuals possess characteristics of just one class anymore).
What is the notion of class voting?
People vote for the party that represents their social class e.g. Typically working class - Labour, middle class - Conservative
What does the Comparative Manifesto Project data depict?
That with the introduction of New Labour in 1997, there was ideological convergence between the main parties on a left/right ideology axis
What new sociological divisions does Dunleavy (1980) suggest?
Employment (public v private sector)
Consumption (public services v private provisions)
What new cleavage does YouGov 2015 poll data support?
Dunleavy’s (1980) employment cleavage.
Conservatives lead in private sector votes, Labour lead on public sector. Austerity/public spending cuts issue.
Who suggests that there is a broad agreement that class dealignment since 1945 has led to the rising importance of valence judgements? But that social background informs perceptions of parties & leaders.
Denver et al. (2012)
What do Andersen and Heath (2002) argue about the relevance of social class?
That social class is still important in shaping election outcomes, they argue that it is about the people you socialise with in your constituency and not the rise of individualism.
What is Andersen and Heath’s (2002) argument about the persisting relevance of social class based on?
The argument of Miller (1997) - people tend to be influenced towards political agreement with their social contacts.
How would you criticise Andersen and Heath’s (2002) argument that social class is still relevant because of constituency contacts?
Narrow view of who you socialise with, rising role of the internet in social relationships means that could be in regular contact with people in different constituencies as well as different contacts.
What was important to the 2010 General Election?
Economic competence: Whiteley et al. (2015) - after start of recession Conservatives eclipsed Labour in vote intentions
Sanders (2000) - economic perceptions that matter not ‘raw macroeconomic realities’
What was important to the 2015 General Election?
Economy.
But Curtice (2015) - Labour’s cost of living crisis most salient with younger voters
Supported by Ipsos MORI poll data (2015) that shows that Labour had a clear lead among voters aged 18-34.
Are there any gender differences in voting?
Campbell (2012) - Women are slightly more likely to vote Conservative than men, but the traditional gender gap is in decline.
Is there any difference in age and voting?
YouGov (2015) shows older people more likely to vote Conservative. Ipsos MORI (2015) shows young women more likely to vote Labour.
Voting and ethnic minorities?
Sanders et al (2014) - Labour lead on ethnic minority votes.
Differences in voting and region?
Labour - strong in Scotland (until 2015 and SNP), Wales, the North and urban areas
Conservatives - strong in the South and rural areas.
Conclusion - Is social class still important in shaping election outcomes?
Social class is not as influential as it used to be, although there is still some correlation. Voters are not, however, blank sheets when it comes to making valence judgements. Voters understanding is informed by their backgrounds.
Who reported that in 2010 manual workers were still more likely than non-manual workers to vote Labour?
Denver et al. (2012)
