Voting Behaviour Flashcards
What is a manifesto?
List of policies a party sets out to appeal to voters and persuade them to vote for them.
They have become more specific since 2019.
What were some of the key policies from the 2019 Labour manifesto?
-4.3% p.a. increase in health budget.
-renegotiate EU-UK customs agreement and close single-market alignment.
-Abolish tuition fees.
-Increase minimum wage to £10 an hour.
-Introduce a National Care Service.
-Nationalise key industries.
-End Universal Credit.
-Abolish charitable status of private schools.
What were some key Conservative 2019 manifesto pledges?
-To increase nurses by 50k p.a.
-Spend at least £6.3 billion on disadvantaged homes.
-Get Brexit Done.
What were some key Lib Dem 2019 manifesto pledges?
-End Brexit.
-20k more teachers recruited.
Why are precise pledges useful?
-Intends to give the electorate a clear set of policies to be pursued.
-By delivering on one, a party can say they fulfilled a promise.
What do manifestos provide to parties?
Mandates - this allows a party to what it wants when (if) it enters power.
What is the significance of manifestos in providing a mandate?
-The electorate can be confident they understand they are consenting to, if they read it.
-It strengthens government and gives parliament and the public easy grounds on which to scrutinise the government.
-The electorate can judge a party on whether it upheld manifesto promises in government.
What are some potential challenges to a party fuflilling manifesto promises?
-A coalition means that compromise is necessary and some pledges may not be carried out due to opposition from a coalition partner (Lib Dems not abolishing tuition fees after 2010).
-A minority government (2017) can prevent a party from passing legislation to fulfill the pledges.
-Voters may not agree to all pledges, even if they voted for a certain party, the mandate assumes this is the case.
-67% of the electorate don’t read manifestos, so the majority of those who ‘consent’ to policy may not have been aware of it when voting.
-Some manifesto pledges may be vague and open to interpretation.
Ideally, how should voters use manifestos?
To make a judgement on the collection of policies offered in it, to help determine whom it will award an electoral mandate.
Why may some vote tactically?
Some voters are considered wasted, especially for smaller parties. Due to frustration with their inability to affect the result, they may abandon their first choice to prevent a certain candidate from winning.
What are some examples of tactical voting?
-Labour supporter voting Conservative to stop a UKIP candidate.
-Green supporter voting Labour to stop a Conservative candidate.
-Labour supporter in Scotland voting Conservative to stop an SNP candidate.
-Conservative supporter in Scotland voting Labour to stop an SNP candidate.
-Plaid Cymru supporter in Wales voting Lib Dem to stop a Conservative candidate.
Why is there little data on tactical voting?
It is hard to determine how much tactical voting affects elections.
What did John Curtice, a Strathclyde University election expert estimate the prevalence of tactical voting to be?
He estimates that up to 77 constituencies (of 650) may have been affected in 2015. This doesn’t mean they were actually affected however.
What did a British Electoral Study poll find the prevalence of tactical voting to be?
24% of respondents planned to vote tactically.
66% planned to vote for their first choice.
What did a Lib Dem candidate for Canterbury do in 2019?
They withdrew from the ballot to prevent splitting the Remain vote.
What did the Brexit Party do in 2019 to prevent splitting the Leave vote?
They chose not to contest 317 seats where there was a tight race for the Conservatives.
What has the group ‘Tactical Vote’ been doing since 2015?
The group, being a left-wing organisation, it used social media to encourage left-wingers to vote for certain parties in constituencies to prevent the right from winning.
What evidence was there from Scotland in 2015 to suggest that tactical voting wasn’t prevalent?
Though many allegedly planned to vote to keep out the SNP, they still became the largest party.
What has been the consistent policy of all parties towards tactical voting?
No party has ever officially endorsed tactical voting.
What can be said for who the electorate choose in general elections?
They choose a future PM, as well as a ruling party and MP.
Which qualities are crucial for party leaders, as cited by the public?
-Trustworthiness.
-Decisiveness.
-Strong image.
-Good record in office.
-Compassion.
-Sincerity.
-Clear vision.
-Good communicator.
What are some examples of where leadership played a role in elections?
-In 2015, Cameron had a more positive image than Ed Miliband.
-Blair began with a very positive image in 1997 and 2001, but by 2007 was a liability to Labour to the point that they replaced him with Brown.
-Brown faced a negative image in the press, due to perceived indecisiveness.
-In 2022, Johnson resigned due to not acting honestly and was replaced by Liz Truss, who failed to unite her party under her economic policy.
What examples are there of leadership not being as important as generally regarded?
-In 1979, Callaghan led by 20% but lost the election.
-Nick Clegg was the most popular leader in 2010, but the Lib Dem vote share fell by 1% from 2005.
-Joe Swinson had a negative image but the Lib Dem vote share increased from 2017 to 2019.
-Nicola Sturgeon faced a negative image but the SNP remained the largest party in Scotland during most of her time as leader.
What evidence is there that leadership is as important as generally regarded?
-The Brexit Party was closely tied with Nigel Farage and when he called for their candidates to stand down in 2019 to allow for a Conservative government, the party became much smaller than previously.
-Corbyn’s image as a staunch socialist and pro-youth policies led to a ‘youthquake’ in 2017, which helped Labour overperform and stop a Conservative majority.
-Corbyn’s ambivalence towards the EU in 2019, an election dominated by Brexit, caused a collapse in Labour support and an 80 seat Conservative majority.
What were the net approval ratings for different leaders in the 2019 election?
Johnson -1
Corbyn -38
Swinson -16
Farage -16
Sturgeon -25
How did Jo Swinson’s Lib Dems change in popularity from 2017 to 2019?
7.4% to 11.5% (4.1% increase).
How did Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems popularity change between 2005 and 2010, despite his widely regarded image?
Lost 5 seats and 1% of the vote share.
