Voting behaviour Flashcards
What different models are there to describe voting behaviour?
Social Structure model
Party ID model
Rational Choice Theory
Dominant Ideology model
Voting context model
Brief explanation of social structure model
Voters categorised into social groups - the interests of these groups explain voting patterns
Examples of social groups in the social structure model
Class, race, age, gender etc…
When was class alignment most clear?
1960s
Reasons why we are seeing a trend of class dealignment?
Changing home ownership (mainly due to Thatcher’s right to buy scheme)
Declining trade union membership
Changes in education (more staying on post-16, many more going to university)
Rise of nationalist parties like SNP, Plaid Cymru
How much has class alignment decreased?
According to the Alford Index of Class Voting, class alignment has decreased from around 45 percentage points in the 1960s to less than 5 percentage points by 2019.
What is the party identification model?
The theory that voters stay loyal to a particular party over long periods - this is classed partisan alignment
Reasons why partisan alignment is decreasing?
Greater political awareness of voters
Less trust in politicians (e.g. Tory sleaze, expenses scandals)
Decline in ideological differences between parties (New Labour’s shift to the centre)
Statistics to show partisan dealignment
In 1960s, around 45% of voters said that they had a very strong party alignment, but this has gone down to only around 12% by the 2000s
From which economic concept does the rational choice theory draw inspiration?
‘Homo economicus’ - people are rational decision makers
What does rational choice theory say about voting behaviour?
Voters act like consumers, choosing to vote for whichever party offers the best package for their interests
What is a sub-section of rational choice theory?
Valence model - voters use a party’s recent history to determine how well it will deliver on its promised policies
What do some RCT stress?
Government competency as a major factor in voting behaviour - RETROSPECTIVE VOTING
Examples of when parties won due to good economies
2001, 1987
Examples of when parties lost due to bad economies
2010 (poor handling of 2008 financial crisis), 1979 (Winter of Discontent)
Examples of when RCT doesn’t seem to apply
1983 - bad economy, Thatcher still won (BUT Falklands)
1997 - improving economy, Tories still lost (BUT Tory sleaze)
Evidence that election campaigns are mattering more in recent times
2015 - 50% of voters said they made up their mind during the election campaign
2017 - Corbyn’s popularity hugely increased during election campaign
Examples that go against social structure model (age)
The fact that age makes a difference in voting isn’t a social structure, but the result of targeted policy
Cons - triple lock on pensions
Lab - lowering voting age to 16, abolishing tuition fees (however, Starmer ditched this promise in May 2023)
Criticisms of RCT?
Do voters really research policies as much as rational choice theory suggests?
Psychological studies suggest that people are likely to stick with who they voted for previously
Long term factors in 1979 election (social structure model)
Class alignment quite significant - 49% of unskilled workers voted Labour compared to 34% voting Conservative)
Gender? - 47% of Tory voters in this election were women (compared to only 35% in 1974), HOWEVER likely due to short term factor of the candidate being a woman
Short term factors in the 1979 election (rational choice theory)
Winter of Discontent
Long term factors in the 1997 election (social structure model)
Despite the trend away from class based voting in the decades prior, 61% of unskilled workers voted Labour and only 21% voted Conservative
Much bigger increase in Labour vote among young people than older people
Short term factors in the 1997 election (rational choice theory)
Conservative party was losing credibility due to infighting, particularly over EU membership, and the infamous ‘Tory sleaze’ scandal
Black Wednesday
Long term factors in the 2010 election (social structure model)
Labour kept ‘Red Wall’, urban areas mostly voted for Labour
Significant class dealignment - manual workers voting Labour fell dramatically
Older people more likely to vote Conservative
Short term factors in 2010 election (rational choice theory)
2008 economic crisis
Expenses scandal caused disillusionment (e.g. Tony Blair’s expenses records had been shredded ‘by mistake’)
