Voting behaviour Flashcards
1
Q
What are the two most significant minority ethnic groups in elections
A
Blacks and hispanics
2
Q
How strong was black support for the Ds in the 11 elections between 1980-2020
A
They always gave atleast 83% of the Ds
3
Q
Which president was said to have a particular affinity with black americans during his presidency
A
Clinton
4
Q
When was their loyal support especially useful
A
During the difficult period of his impeachment and trial
5
Q
What impact did Obama being the first black presidential candidate have on black voting
A
The share of black people voting D rose from 88% in 2004 to 95% in 2008. Black turnout was also up, going to 13% of the electorate
6
Q
What did black support fall back to in 2016 with Clinton
A
89%
7
Q
Give a statistic to illustrate how hispanics are growing as a proportion of the pop
A
According to the 2000 census it formed 12% of the pop, but the 2010 figure put this at 16%
8
Q
Why is the political importance of this change yet to show
A
Because they are are young demographic and some of them have not reached voting age
9
Q
Give some states where Hispanics make up more than 25% of the pop
A
- California
- Nevada
- Arizona
- Texas
- New Mexico
10
Q
Why can we not view hispanics as one monolithic voting block to the extent that we can with other ethnicities
A
Because they are from various groups such as Mexico, Cuba and Puerto Rico and this country of origin impacts the way they will vote
11
Q
Why was Bush able to make a significant bid for the hispanic vote in 2000
A
- GWB speaks fluent Spanish
- His brother, Jeb, is married to a hispanic woman
12
Q
Why can this bid be called successful
A
The R vote among hispanics increased significantly from 20% in 1996 to 31% in 2000 and then to 43% in 2004
13
Q
What had this decreased back down to by 2016
A
It had gone down to 28%, with Clinton hold a 38 point lead among hispanic voters
14
Q
Why did Trump’s 2016 campaign drive hispanic voters away
A
Due to his negative attitude towards mexican immigrants
15
Q
What kind of nasty things did he say about Mexican immigrants
A
They’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime, they’re rapists
16
Q
What did he promise to do to keep Mexican immigrants out of the country
A
Build a wall
17
Q
Why did the hispanic R vote increase in 2020
A
Due to the admiration among some hispanic men for the machismo image of Trump, a man’s man, and the successful if rather exaggerated link he made between the Ds, socialism and communism. His concerns that a Biden-Harris ticket was a path towards socialism resonated with many Cuban American and Venezuelan American voters who reside in Florida
18
Q
Why is it surprising that religion is a deciding factor in US voting behaviour
A
Because there is a strict separation between church and state
19
Q
What is religion closely linked to
A
The social and moral that divide the parties
20
Q
What is Protestant Christianity linked to
A
The religious right, social conservativism and the bible belt
21
Q
What is the bible belt
A
A line of southern states from Texas to southern and central Virginia
22
Q
Give a statistic to show how Protestants are a staple support group for the Rs
A
Given the Rs between 54-62% of their votes in each of the last 6 presidential elections
23
Q
Which group within protestant Christianity make an even greater difference to the R vote
A
Evangelical Christians
24
Q
What was the particularly high vote share they lended to Trump in 2016
A
81%
25
Why can this not be solely attributed to Trump
It might have had more to do with antipathy towards Clinton than commitment to Trump
26
Why are SC nominations particularly important in gaining their vote
Because this group more than any other places a high premium on the appointment of strict constructionist judges who will hand down decisions in line with their conservative social agenda
27
How is the term 'Christian evangelicans' sometimes improperly used
It is necessary to distinguish between 'evangelicals', whose priorities are mainly spiritual, and 'Christian nationalists' who have political views. Many of those who pollsters refer to as evangelicals are better described as Christian nationalists
28
How dis Trump illustrate this distinction
He had little time for the practise of evangelical christianity while holding many of the beliefs of christian nationalism, like the promotion of religious symbolism in the public arena, and the promotion of policy that supports Christian beliefs. His brandishing of the Bible outside a Washington Church in June 2020 in order to make a political point, when he rarely if ever attends a place of worship illustrates this distinction
29
Give some statistics to show how Biden did surprisingly well among evangelical voters considering he was a D president
He got nearly 1/4 of the vote nationwide
In Michigan he won 29% of the E vote
He won just 14% of white evangelicals but in doing so still managed to nearly triple Clintonn's figure of 5% in 2016
30
Why is a swing in white evangelical voters particularly important
Because they make up 1/3 of all voters in Virginia, which is a crucial swing state
31
What was the reason for Biden's success among evangelicals
Had a well planned series of ads playing of Christian radio stations throughout the campaign
They appeared more convinced by Biden's compassionate tones and devout faith than Trump's Bible waving in Washington as a photo opportunity
Some young evangelicals were opposed to Trump
Biden deliberately employed evangelical language in an attempt to connect with them
32
Which party did Catholics traditionally lend their support to
The Ds
33
Why?
Due to its strong links to European Catholicism among the immigrant communities, especially among Irish Americans in the Northeast
34
When did D support among Catholics begin to wane
The 1970s
35
Why
Because of its support for abortion. Devout Catholics are therefore drawn to the Rs based on this issue
36
Why can this swing towards the Rs not be called a major one
Because the Ds have still won the catholic vote in 4 of the last 6 presidential elections
37
Why was 2016 an especially disappointing vote in terms of the Catholic vote share for the Ds`
Only 45% voted D - the lowest figure in a two party contest since 1984
38
How did this improve in 2020
Biden turned a 4 point deficit into a 5 point lead
39
Why do trends among Jewish and Muslim voters matter less than the previous two religiions discussed
Because they make up a smaller proportion of the pop
40
Which party do Jews and Muslims generally support
The Ds
41
What % of Jewish voters supported Biden in 2020
68%
42
What % of Muslim voters supported Biden in 2020
64%
43
Why does this high Muslim vote not necessarily mean that they liked Biden
- Trump had instigated a travel ban affecting 7 majority Muslim countries
- In a 2016 interview he said 'I think Islam hates us'
44
Make the case that this high Muslim vote was not simply born out of a negative reaction to Trump
- In 2015, Trump said 'I love the Muslims, I think they're great people'. Although even with this said, Muslims could not have been sure where they stood with Trump due to his subsequent actions and comments
- Muslims have traditionally favoured the Ds so this was not a break from usual trends
-
45
What did 2020 exit polls say about the trend between frequency of attendance at religious service and party support
61% of those who said they attended worship at least weekly said they voted for Trump, versus 37% who said they voted for Biden. Those who worshipped at least once monthly favoured Biden over Trump 54%-45%
46
What does the trend between religious practise and voting behaviour link to
The stance of the parties on social and moral issues
47
Those with no religious affiliation is a growing segment of the US electorate. In which areas is atheism growing in particular?
Amongst younger, urban voters
48
Where does the allegiance generally lie for atheistic voters
The Ds
49
Give some statistics to prove that this was the case in 2020
72% backed Biden over Trump
50
Explain the fact that atheists are more likely to support the Ds
Probably best explained by the association between the Rs and the more conservative sections of the christian churches, and their desire to bring more aspects of the christian faith into public life. This includes reintroducing prayers into state run schools, something opposed by most secularists who wish to maintain the separation of church and state
51
Give a statistic to prove that women are more likely to vote for the D party than men
In 9 out of the 10 presidential elections between 1964 and 2000, women were significantly more supportive of the D candidate, a trend that has continued into the 21st century. This is referred to as the gender gap
52
What is the gender gap
The gap between the support given to a candidate by women and the support given to the same candidate by men
53
What was the gender gap for Trump in 2016 and 2020
11 points - with 53% of men and 42% of women voting for Trump in 2020
54
Why was this significant
Because it was the widest gender gap for an R candidate for over half a century
55
What was the gender gap for Biden
It was even wider at 12 points, with 57% of women and 45% of men voting for him
56
Why was his VP pick crucial in gaining the female vote
Because he selected a woman
57
What is the reason for the gender gap between the two parties
Policy differences between the two main parties. In five major policy areas, abortion, law and order, gun control, defence spending and women's rights, the Ds tend to take positions that are more favoured by women
They also tend to have a higher number of high profile female politicians
58
Give some examples of D policy positions that are favoured by women
- Pro choice on abortion
- Tend to favour lower levels of defence spending
- Oppose capital punishment
- Support gun control
- Made a close but unsuccesful attempt for an equal rights amendment to the constitution protecting the civil rights of women
59
Give some examples of high profile female politicians within the D party
- Clinton
- Speaker Pelosi
- First ever female VP Harris
60
Explain the growing gap for R candidates seen under Trump
Some of the explanation lies in his attitude and treatment of women. This became prominent in the primaries, when he made rude remarks about fellow R candidate Carly Fiorina as well as the political commentator Megyn Kelly. Controversry also arose in the GE campaign where just a month before election day a videotape was released into the public domain showing Trump bragging in vulgar terms about kissing, groping and trying to have sex with different women - even women he knew to be married. 'When your a star, they let you do it. They let you do anything'
61
Give some statistic to prove that the drop in female voting for the Rs was actually surprisingly low following these comments and actions
Support only fell by 3% from the 2012 R tally. And in 2020 his support among women actually increased by 1%
62
Why were these results still bad despite the drop off not seeming too harsh
Both results are still record lows for Rs and represent figures not seen since 1964
63
Who do those who have never attended college or university tends to support
The Rs
64
Who do those who have graduated from college or uni with at least a bachelors give the majority of their votes too
The Ds
65
Give some statistics to prove that we must connsider all of these factors (race, education, gender and religion) at the same time rather than in isolation when looking at voting behaviour
While 54% of non college educated voters went Trump in 2020, this increased to 67% among white non college educated voters and then 70% among non college educated voters who were white and male
66
Give some statistics to prove how Biden made inroads into Trump's large scale support from white, non college educated men in 2020
While Clinton received the support of only 26% of these men in 2016 this rose to 35% by 2020. Biden made especially significant gains amongst these groups in key battleground states and this was crucial in in the Ds winning back these states and therefore the presidency
67
What were these two states
Wisconsin and Michigan
68
How much did Biden increase the vote share among these men in Wisconsin compared to 2016
26% to 35%
69
What about in Michigan
From 24% to 34%
70
What proportion of the US pop are white?
60%
71
What proportion of the US pop are black
13%
72
What proportion of the US pop are hispanic
18%
73
When did the trend that white voters favour the R candidates begin
1968
74
Why do white voters tend to support the Rs
R policies tend to appeal to white voters regardless of their socioeconomic status. Many of them believe that the Rs will govern in their best interests (rational choice theory). These white voters are bothered by the progressive agenda of the Ds which they equate with an overbearing state and excessive taxation
75
Which one of Trump's campaign slogans polled well with white voters
MAGA
76
Give some statistics that display how well Trump did with whites in 2016
He achieved 57% of the white vote compared to Clinton's 37%
77
The margin was 20% in 2016. What was it reduced down to by 2020?
17%
78
Why was this white swing crucial in 2020
Many of those who switched resided in swing states and played a key role in Biden defeating Trump in these states
79
What was surprising about this swing in 2020
That many of those who switched to the Ds were men, which in theory would have made them more likely to be committed R voters
80
How did Trump cancel out Biden eating into the margin of the white vote enjoyed by the Rs
Because Trump did the same in relation to the minority vote margin the Ds enjoy
81
Give some statistics to prove that
Although the D share of black votes remained high at 75%, this was also the lowest in a presidential election since 2004
Trump increased his share of the black vote from 8% in 2016 to 12% in 2020
82
Did this shift in black support for Trump among blacks come from men or womeen
Men
83
Explain this uptick in black, particularly black male, support for Trump in 2020
- A 'Black Voices for Trump' campaign repeatedly and falsely claimed that Biden had called young black men 'super predators'
- Some support from the black community stemmed from voters who thought he was more likely to bring about economic prosperity and financial security
84
Trump also made inroads into the latino community. In which two states in particular did this happen
Florida and Texas
85
Give some statistics to show how Trump performed well among latino voters in 2020
Increased his share of the latino vote by 3% compared to 2016
The Latino D margin of 33% was the lowest since the 2004 election
86
What two things were these latino gains by Trump offset by
- The loss of white voters
- Increased black turnout
87
Why was the increased Hispanic support for Trump in Florida especially imoortant
He increased his share of the hispanic vote in Florida by 11% and this was a crucial factor in the state remaining red
88
What important support group for Trump in 2016 softened their support for him in 2020
Evangelicals and Catholics
89
Why can it be said that he actually did alot for these groups in terms of the importance they place on SC appointments
He gave them three SC justices and many more in the lower federal courts
90
What explains to vote swing towards Biden from catholics
Biden is a catholic
91
Who has been the only other catholic president
JFK
92
Give some statistics to prove that Biden's support among catholics paled in comparison to that which was enjoyed by JFK
Biden won 52% of their vote while Kennedy obtained nearly 80%
93
Which states did the catholic swing impact the Rs not winning
- Wisconsin
- Pennsylvania
- Michigan
94
What proportion of the Jewish vote did Biden win
77%
95
What proportion of the Jewish vote did Clinton win in 2016
71%
96
What % of Jews voted for Trump
21%
97
Why did some expect Trump to support better than this among Jews
Because he had worked to secure a normalisation of relations between Israel and some Arab countries
98
What other issues outweighed this for Jews and made them turnout for Biden
COVID, climate change and healthcare
99
What % of men voted Trump in 2020
53%
100
What % of women voted for Biden
57
101
Why is the female vote particularly important
Because women are more reliable voters
102
Give a statistic to prove that they are more reliable voters
In the 2012 and 2016 elections, women outvoted men by around 10 million ballots
103
Give a statistic to show that mixing gender and ethnic voting can complicate the picture
Even though Biden polled well with women in general, when we look at white women in specific we see that 55% voted for Trump
104
What % of those with a university degree voted for Biden in 2020
55%
105
What % of those with a uni degree voted for Trump in 2020
42%
106
Biden had a 13 point lead among those with a uni degree. In 2020. How much of a lead did Clinton have over Trump in this regard in 2016
9 points
107
Looking at these factors are useful. When do they become especially useful
When we mix the factors
108
What % of voters supported Trump
47%
109
What % of voters supported Biden
51%
110
What was the swing to the Dems since 2016
+2
111
What % of men voted for Trump
53
112
What % of men voted for Biden
45
113
What was the swing to the Ds among men since 2016
+4
114
What % of women voted for Trump
42
115
What % of women voted Biden
57
116
What was the female swing towards the Ds compared to 2016
+3
117
What % of whites voted Trump
58
118
What % of whites voted Biden
41
119
What was the swing towards the Ds among whites
+4
120
What % of blacks voted Trump
12%
121
What % of blacks voted Biden
87%
122
What was the swing to the Ds among blacks
-5
123
What % of hispanics voted Trump
32
124
What % of hispanics voted Biden
65%
125
What was the swing towards the Ds amongst latinos
-3
126
What % of asians voted Trump
34
127
What % of asians voted Biden
61
128
What was the swing towards the Ds from asians
-9
129
What % of white men voted Trump
61
130
What % of white men voted Biden
38
131
What was the swing towards the Ds among white men
+9
132
What % of white women voted Trump
55
133
What % of white women voted Biden
44
134
What was the swing towards the Ds from white women
-1
135
What % of black men voted Trump
19
136
What % of black men voted Biden
79
137
What % of black women voted Trump
9
138
What % of black women voted Biden
90
139
What was the vote swing towards the Ds among both black men and black women
-9
140
What % of hispanic men voted Trump
36%
141
What % of hispanic men voted Biden
59%
142
What was the swing towards the Ds among hispanic men
-6
143
What % of hispanic women voted trump
30%
144
What % of hispanic women voted Biden
69%
145
What was the swing towards the Ds among latino women
-3
146
What % of married men voted Trump
55%
147
What % of married men voted Biden
44%
148
What was the swing towards the Ds from married men
+10
149
What % of married women voted Trump
51%
150
What % of married women voted Biden
47%
151
What was the swing towards the Ds among married women
-6
152
What % of unmarried men voted Trump
45%
153
What % of unmarried men voted Biden
52%
154
What was the swing towards the Ds among unmarried men
+6
155
What % of unmarried women voted Tru,p
36
156
What % of unmarried women voted Biden
63%
157
What was the swing towards the Ds among unmarried women
-2
158
What % of white evangelicals voted Trump
76%
159
What % of white evangelicals voted Biden
24%
160
What was the swing towards the Ds from white evangelicals
+13
161
What % of catholics voted Trump
47%
162
What % of catholics voted Biden
52%
163
What was the swing towards the Ds among Catholics
+9
164
What % of high school graduates voted Trump
54%
165
What % of high school graduates voted Biden
46%
166
What was the swing towards the Ds among high school graduates
-2
167
What % of those with some college education voted Trump
47%
168
What % of those with some college education voted Biden
51%
169
What % of college graduates voted Trump
43%
170
What % of college graduates voted Biden
55%
171
What was the swing towards the Ds among those with some college education
+13
172
What was the swing towards the Ds among college graduates
+8
173
What % of post graduates voted Trump
37%
174
What % of post graduates voted Biden
62%
175
What was the swing towards the Ds among post graduates
+4
176
What % of white non college graduates voted Trump
67%
177
What % of white non college graduates voted Biden
32
178
What was the swing among non college educated whites
+4
179
What % of white non college men voted Trump
70%
180
What % of white non college men voted Trump Biden
28
181
What was the swing among white non college men
+7
182
What % of white non college women voted Trump
63%
183
What % of white non college women coted Biden
36
184
What was the swing towards the Ds among white non college women
+1
185
What % of white college graduates voted Trump
48%
186
What % of white college graduates voted Biden
51%
187
What was the swing towards the Ds from white college graduates
+7
188
What % of white college grad men voted Trump
51%
189
What % of white college grad men voted Biden
48%
190
What was the swing towards the Ds among white college grad men
+12
191
What % of white college grad women voted Trump
45%
192
What % of white college grad women voted Biden
54%
193
What was the swing towards the Ds among white college grad women
+3
194
I'll give a voter category and you say what proportion of the electorate they made up in 2020
!!!
195
Men
48%
196
Women
52%
197
Whites
67%
198
Blacks
13%
199
Latinos
13%
200
Asians
4%
201
White men
35%
202
White women
32%
203
Black men
4%
204
Black women
8%
205
Hispanic men
5%
206
Hispanic women
8%
207
Married men
30%
208
Married women
26%
209
Unmarried men
20%
210
Unmarried women
23%
211
White evangelicals
28%
212
Catholics
25%
213
High school graduate highest level of qual
19%
214
Some level of college education highest
23%
215
College graduate
41%
216
Post graduates
15%
217
White non college
35%
218
White non college men
18%
219
White non college women
17%
220
White college grad
32%
221
White college grad men
17%
222
White college grad women
14%
223
