Voter Coalitions Flashcards
what are voter coalitions
groups of voters that support a particular
candidate
social background factors
Gender
Ethnicity
Religion
how can candidates win an election
To win an election, candidates usually need to attract the support of a range of social groups to win. They need to attract a combination of different social groups.
gender
14% point gender gap 2020
24% point gender gap 2016
ethnicity/race
Both for white Americans and Black Americans political parties’ views on those issues (affirmative action, police brutality, white supremacy) influence how they vote – in the whole country, although particularly in the South
back vote
95% in 2008 for Obama
93% in 2012 for Obama
87% in 2020 for Biden Harris
Reasons why African Americans tend to vote Democrat
- 1960s support for civil rights and desegregation
- Continued support for equality and affirmative action
- African American candidates and role models
- African Americans are more likely to be poor – link with social class and Democrats support for working class
what ethnicity is increasing
Latino vote is increasingly important
65% dems in 2020
Why do most Hispanics tend to vote Democrat?
- Immigration issue. Support for immigration, amnesty (Dem.) vs. tough border control, deportations (Rep.)
- Democrat support for minority civil rights
- Hispanics are more likely to be poor – linkwith social class and Democrats support for working class
Why do some Hispanics tend to vote Republican?
Conservative (Catholic) views on social issues
Dislike of socialism (Cubans & Venezuelans in Florida)
religion
Unlike in the UK, religion has always been an important factor distinguishing groups in society – and has always been a significant factor explaining voting behaviour
when did religion start to become a major factor
since the 1980s and the rise of the religious
right.
evangelical Christian voters
Many Evangelical Christian voters’ opinions on abortion and gay marriage are the most important when deciding their vote, they tend to vote republican. Republican candidates are forced to be more and more openly passionate about those issues to please their ‘base’
76% voted for trump in 2020
why do evangelicals vote republican
Pro-life, Against abortion - Roe v. Wade 1973
Against gay marriage – Obergefell v Hodges 2015
Protect school prayers
In favour of public buildings displaying Christian symbols
For teaching of creationism, not evolution
Support for Israel
social class
since the 1980s the boundaries between the social classes have become more blurred, in the UK. In the US social class has never been the single dominant voting behavior factor
indicators for social class in the US
Income/Wealth
Education
what is the trend in social class and VB
Higher income and highly educated groups tend to vote Republican
Lower income and less educated groups tend to vote Democrat
African American vote for Obama 2008
95%
Evangelical Christian vote for Trump 2020
76%
Latino vote for Biden in 2020
65%
gender gap in 2016 presidential elections
24%
social class
In the US social class has never been the single dominant
voting behavior factor. Higher income and highly educated groups tend to vote Republican
Lower income and less educated groups tend to vote
Democrat
However, because other factors also matter, the picture
isn’t always so clear. e.g. wealthier black Americans still
tend to vote Democrat, and poor white Evangelical
Christians still Republican.
why do working class people vote democrats
Democrats defend the interests of less wealthy
Americans: e.g. Affordable Care Act
Republicans defend the interests of wealthy Americans:
e.g. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 2018
Why did so many white working class voters, especially in
the Rust Belt, shift to Trump?
Trump opposition to NAFTA – many Rust Belt voters
have lost their jobs when factories moved, some to Mexico
(although also to China…) Believe that politics has not
benefitted them
In 2008 and 2012 Obama was the ‘change’ candidate.
In 2016 Trump was ‘change’ candidate, Clinton
the establishment candidate
% of ppl who never attended college that vioted trump in 2020
51%
