Verification Flashcards
1
Q
General things:
A
The value of a forecast rises with lead time and reliability.
Note: a forecast with large lead time and low performance can have more value than an accurate forecast with short lead time
The performance of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the forecast with observed data
There are different performance measures for continuous variables (e.g. discharge, precipitation) or for categorical/ binary variables (e.g. threshold exceeded?).
Comparing the performance of a new model with a simple reference model allows assessment of the forecast skill of the new method
2
Q
Performance measures for continous variables:
A
- Pbias
- Root Mean Squared Error
- Correlation
3
Q
Performance measures for categorical variables:
A
- Accuracy
- Prob of detection
- Prob of false alarm