Verification Flashcards

1
Q

General things:

A

 The value of a forecast rises with lead time and reliability.

 Note: a forecast with large lead time and low performance can have more value than an accurate forecast with short lead time

 The performance of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the forecast with observed data

 There are different performance measures for continuous variables (e.g. discharge, precipitation) or for categorical/ binary variables (e.g. threshold exceeded?).

 Comparing the performance of a new model with a simple reference model allows assessment of the forecast skill of the new method

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2
Q

Performance measures for continous variables:

A
  • Pbias
  • Root Mean Squared Error
  • Correlation
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3
Q

Performance measures for categorical variables:

A
  • Accuracy
  • Prob of detection
  • Prob of false alarm
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