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Politics - A Levels 2022 > US - Presidency > Flashcards

US - Presidency Flashcards

1
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:
Proposing legislation:

A
  • The President can propose legislation to Congress, but can’t pass laws himself.
  • He can do this through the State of the Union Address, or a press conference, or an announcement.
  • *EX: Trump SoU 2017:**
  • He asked Congress to limit healthcare spending and Obamacare, and to stop spending money on health for ‘illegal aliens’.
  • He called for bi-partisan legislation to lower prescription drug prices.
  • He asked Congress to pass the education freedom scholarships and opportunities act.
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2
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:
Submitting the annual budget:

A
  • The annual budget is drawn up by the Office of Management of the Budget (OMB), which is part of EXOP, and the President submits it to Congress.
    EX: In 2013, the gov shutdown for 17 days as the Rep House refused to pass more funding for Obamacare.
    EX: In 2018/19, the gov shutdown for 35 as the Dam House refused to pass $5.7bn funding for the border wall.
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3
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:
Signing legislation:

A
  • When a bill becomes law, the President will take credit for it by having a signing ceremony, inviting relevant congress-members, IGs, EXOP members, etc.
  • EX: For the signing ceremony of Obamacare, senior Dems were there, Ted Kennedy’s widow and an 11 year old campaigner.
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4
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:

Power of the veto:

A
  • The President has the power to veto legislation, (inc the pocket veto that Congress can’t override).
  • This is a powerful threat, although rarely ever used.
  • Congress also has the power to override it with a ⅔ vote, but they almost never do this.
  • EX: Presidents since 1992
    • Clinton: 37 vetoes, 2 overriden
    • GWB: 12 vetoes, 4 overriden
    • Obama: 12 vetoes, 1 overriden
    • Trump: 10 vetoes, 1 overriden
  • EX: Obama’s override on JASTA 2016 (a bill allowing people affected by terrorism to sue the Saudi govt). He vetoed it to make the point that FP with Saudi was more important, but it was overridden as Congress initially passed it by a large majority, and so it was easy to get a ⅔ override. He was also weak, as it was in his last year in office.
  • EX: GWB had 12 vetoes, and he used 11 of them between 2007 and 2008, which is the only time that he had a divided govt (both houses Dem). This shows that the veto power is only useful in times of divided govt.
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5
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:

Act as Chief Executive:

A
  • Article 2 gives the President “all executive power”, meaning he runs the executive branch.
  • But, modern Presidents have needed EXOP as the job is so big (inc budget office, national security office, economic advisors).
  • This gives EXOP a lot of power, and esp the Chief of Staff.
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6
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:

Nominating executive branch officials

A
  • There are 100s, but the main are the 15 secretaries (of the 15 executive departments - state, agriculture, education, defence, commerce, etc).
  • This also includes lower level officials in the departments, ambassadors, agency heads (CIA, FBI, NSA), etc.
  • The senate confirms these appointments with a simple majority.
  • EX: Anthony Lake 1996 (Clinton) was rejected for Director of Central Intelligence.
  • EX: Susan Rice 2012 (Obama) was rejected as Sec of State, so Obama made her NSA instead.
  • EX: Andrew Puzder 2016 (Trump) was rejected as Sec of Labor, after sexual harassment and wage theft claims.
  • EX: Ronny Jackson 2018 (Trump) was rejected as Sec for Veterinary Affairs, due to lack of experience (he was Trump’s doctor before).
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7
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:

Nominating federal judges:

A
  • This includes SC and lower courts. These are all for life.
  • The Senate confirms this by a simple majority.
  • EX: Clinton with Breyer and RBG, GWB with Roberts and Alito, Obama with Sotomayor and Kagan, Trump with Gorsuch, Barrett and Kavanaugh, Biden with Jackson.
  • EX: Notable failures are Garland (Obama), Miers (GWB) and Roberts first time (GWB).
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8
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:

Acting as Commander in Chief:

A
  • The President leads the US in FP and conflict as Commander in Chief.
  • This was significant during the Cold War (from Truman to Reagan).
  • Then again significant for GWB with 9/11.
  • Although it is only Congress that can officially declare war, the President has the power to ‘authorise military action’ without their approval.
  • Congress has not declared war since Vietnam.
  • EX: Obama last authorised military action in Libya in 2011 (under the War Powers Resolution Act 1973).
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9
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:

Negotiating treaties:

A
  • Presidents negotiate treaties, but the senate must approve them with a ⅔ majority.
  • The last treaty passed was NATO in 1949.
  • The last treaty rejected was the Convention on Rights of Disabled Persons/Persons with Disabilities in 2012.
  • However, as a ⅔ vote is so hard to get, President just use EAs now instead to bypass Congress (2015 Paris accord, Iran Nuclear Deal 2015, etc).
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10
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:

Power of pardon:

A
  • They can pardon any crime of a US citizen.
  • EX: Ford pardoned Nixon for his role in Watergate.
  • EX: Clinton pardoned 140 people on his last day in office (including a tax evader and donator to him, Mark Rich)
  • EX: Obama pardoned 212 people, most people in prison for minor drug charges.
  • EX: Trump pardoned his 2016 NSA Michael Flynn in 2020, who lied to Congress about Russian involvement in the 2016 election (which he was in prison for).
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11
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:

Role as Head of State:

A
  • This is the role of the chief public representative of the nation.
  • They act as Head of State esp in times of national tragedy.
  • EX: GWB in 9/11 (but unsuccessfully after Hurricane Katrina).
  • EX: Obama after Hurricane Sandy and the Sandy hook
  • EX: Trump was less successful, after the Charlottesville violent protests in 2017, saying there were “fine people on both sides”.
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12
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:

Head of government:

A

This role includes:

  • Acting as chief executive
  • Acting as chief diplomat
  • Acting as chief policy-maker
  • Acting as commander in chief
  • Nominating federal judges
  • Nominating exec branch officials
  • Vetoing legislation
  • Signing legislation into law
  • Negotiating treaties
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13
Q

Formal sources of presidential power as outlined in Article 2 and their uses:

Significance of powers since 1992:

A

Important powers:

  • Signing legislation
  • Submitting the annual budget (money rules politics)
  • Acting as Chief Executive (EXOP is important)
  • Acting as Commander in Chief (can bring the nation together and change FP).
  • Role as Head of State (can bring the nation together)
  • Role as Head of Govt (encompasses many significant powers)

Unimportant powers:

  • Power of the veto (not used frequently)
  • Proposing legislation (this is only the power of persuasion, congress has the real power).
  • Negotiating treaties (done by EAs now)
  • Power of the pardon (not done for any real significant purpose, only affect the people pardoned).

Dependent powers:

  • Nominating judges (depends on the makeup of govt)
  • Nominating exec branch officials (depends on the makeup of govt)
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14
Q

Informal sources of presidential power and their use:
The power through organisations or individuals:

The VP

A
  • The VP is usually chosen to ‘balance out the ticket’ and make the pair more electable.
  • EX: Obama chose the older, white, Senate veteran Joe Biden.
  • EX: Biden chose the young, black, woman Kamala Harris.
  • EX: Trump as an outsider chose former representative and governor Mike Pence.

The ways the president can exercise power through the VP:

  • The VP is the presiding officer of the Senate (recognises the members and gives them legitimacy) - this is a ceremonial role.
  • Breaks a tied vote in the Senate (esp relevant now)
    • EX: Harris in 2022 broke the tie to pass Biden’s COVID recovery budget reconciliation of $900bn.
    • EX: Pence in 2017 broke the tie and confirmed Betsy DeVos for Education Sec.
  • Becoming President if they die/resign/are impeached - (Gerald Ford, LBJ)
  • Acting President when the President is unavailable - (GWB had an operation and Cheney became President for a day).
Although, Jack Gardner (VP for FDR) said the role “was not worth a bucket of warm spit”.
Jack Watson (chief of staff for Carter) said the role was “javelin catcher”.

In practice:

  • The VP can vote to secure the president’s agenda (like Harris does).
  • They can lend more legitimacy to the President (demographically and through political support).
  • The VP can also have official roles in the exec (Biden under Obama was the chief of FP).
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15
Q

Informal sources of presidential power and their use:
The power through organisations or individuals:

The Cabinet

A
  • There are 15 secretaries for the departments of the exec, who are selected by and help the president with running the federal govt. The President can also elevate other positions to cabinet-rank (ambassador to the UN)
  • Article 2 says that the executive branch is vested in the single POTUS, but they may have cabinet to help them.
  • The President has ultimate power over them as:
    • He may decide not to take their advice (doesn’t need their confirmation).
    • They can only give verbal/written advice, not official action.
    • He doesn’t need to hold cabinet meetings (GWB held 6/y, Obama 4, Trump 12 - Trump used his meetings to boast about his accomplishments and criticise his opponents).
    • They can only discuss their respective areas.
  • The members are often former congress-members, or area specialists (Obama’s Sec of energy was Stephen Chu, a uni professor and physicist).
  • They all must be confirmed by the Senate (last official rejection was in 1989 - John Tower as Defence Sec).
  • Cabinet meetings are useless (“they were often a waste of time” - Cabinet member of GWB), but they do have some purposes for the president:
    • The president can appear consultive.
    • They can check up on legislation.
    • They can strengthen relations in the exec.
    • They can discuss major issues (budget/elections)
    • They can prompt action (Obama pushing his Sec of Defence on Guantanamo).
  • The cabinet is powerful individually in their areas, but collectively not at all, as the President is really in charge (there is no equality).
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16
Q

Informal sources of presidential power and their use:
The power through organisations or individuals:

EXOP

A
  • EXOP is the organisation of staff that provide help, advice, co-ordination, and admin support for the President.
  • There are 12 offices of EXOP (OMB, chief of staff, NSC, etc), and total of 2,000 people.

The White House Office, and Chief of Staff:

  • The WHO is a body of close aides and advisors to the president, that support him.
  • They advise, filter issues important enough for the president’s time, liaises with Congress (bridges the gap), makes their schedule, runs the White House, deals with crises (9/11), does the president’s dirty work (javelin catcher).
  • They can also be irresponsible and abuse power like John Sununu as GWB’s CoS, using military private jets to go on holiday.
17
Q

Informal sources of presidential power and their use:
The power through organisations or individuals:

EXOP (the Chief of Staff):

A
  • They are the most important member of EXOP (currently
  • EX: Eisenhower never read a document unless his chief of staff approved it.
  • EX: Andrew Card (CoS) told GWB about 9/11
  • They also act as a liaison between the president and congress (Denis McDonough under Obama as CoS).
18
Q

Informal sources of presidential power and their use:
The power through organisations or individuals:

EXOP (the National Security Council):

A
  • They help co-ordinate FP, defence and security policy, by offering the president options of the State and Defence departments, CIA and US embassies on what to do abroad.
  • It is headed by the NSA.
  • They can either be weak (under Nixon or Reagan). Reagan’s NSA was the creator of the Iran-Contra affair, or they can be powerful like Susan Rice under Obama (who was considered more influential on Obama than John Kerry as sec of state).
19
Q

Informal sources of presidential power and their use:
The power through organisations or individuals:

EXOP (the Office of Management and Budget):

A
  • Their functions:
    • To advise the President on the allocation of federal funds in the annual budget.
    • To oversee the spending of all federal departments and agencies.
    • To act as a filter for all legislative and regulatory initiatives coming from the exec (to make sure they are ok under the budget).
  • They have a director, who also gives budgetary advice to the president, and they draw up the annual budget for submission to Congress. annually.
20
Q

Informal sources of presidential power and their use:
The power through organisations or individuals:

EXOP vs Cabinet:

A
  • Cabinet is seen as distant and disloyal to the President by EXOP, while cabinet members see EXOP as too close, loyal and submitting to the President.
  • This is because the EXOP offices are physically closer to the President (the NSA is almost next-door, whereas the Sec of Defence is 20 mins away).

DANIEL MOYNIHAN: “Never underestimate the power of proximity”

  • EXOP is only loyal to the president, as they only have a responsibility to be loyal to him, whereas cabinet needs to be loyal to congress too, to ensure they are called to speak to committees, and that they are favourably treated in the budget.
  • EXOP can also be ‘policy tsars’ who are appointed to oversee particular policy areas. They don’t need senate approval and so can be controversial as unaccountable figures (Obama had 38 tsars, and Trump had a drug tsar, deregulation tsar, trade tsar, etc).
  • The CoS can cause conflict, as the cabinet can feel powerless in comparison (EX: Rahm Emanuel treated the Secs as ‘minions’).
21
Q

Informal sources of presidential power and their use:
The power through institution:

EOs

A

Paul Begala (Clinton advisor): “stroke of the pen, law of the land, kinda cool”.

  • They are not explicitly outlined in the Article 2, but are under the “grant of executive power” and commander in chief role. He has this power through the electoral mandate.
  • They are legally binding, and the SCOTUS as only ever ruled against 2 (DAPA in US v Texas 2016, and a Clinton EO 1995 on worker’s rights). The SC upheld the Muslim Travel Ban in Hawaii v Trump 2017.
  • They are used to bypass Congress. The only real way of reversing an EO is by the next administration doing so.
  • FDR used the most (almost 300/y), Trump used around 50/y.
  • They are used mostly in times of divided govt, or crisis (GWB used most of his in the last 2 years as Congress was Dem, and also during 9/11).
  • EX: DACA, DAPA 2014 (stops deportation of undocumented parents and children).
    • Clinton used EOs to put troops in the balkans in the 90s.
    • Reagan used one in 1984 to stop all federal funding for abortion uses (then flip-flapped until Obama).
    • Trump’s border wall EO 2018.
    • Trump moving Israeli Embassy 2017.
    • Obama stopping health insurance companies discriminating against gay people.
    • Obama stopping a ban on people entering the US with HIV.
    • Obama stopping discrimination on sexuality in housing.
    • Trump COVID EOs: differed student loan debts, increased unemployment welfare payments, created an eviction moratorium, and a payroll tax holiday (helping employers).
22
Q

Informal sources of presidential power and their use:
The power through institution:

EAs

A
  • An EA is an international agreement between the president and another nation that doesn’t need a formal treaty.
  • They are politically binding and don’t need the ⅔ approval by Congress.
  • Over 90% of all FP agreements are EAs now.
  • GWB signed 300/y.
  • EX: Obama Iran Nuclear deal and Paris Climate Accord 2015.
  • EX: Trump EA with Japan to improve trade relations.
  • EX: Clinton NAFTA 1994.

Both EAs and EOs show the huge scope of presidential power, almost tyrannical and imperial as no opposition from Congress is needed in large decisions. The only check of the president is either the SC (rarely), or the next administration.

23
Q

Informal sources of presidential power and their use:
The power through institution:

Recess appointments:

A
  • These are temporary appointments to a vacant post, made when the Senate is in recess. So, the appointment can stand temporarily, until the Senate confirms them officially when they are back in session.
  • EX: Clinton used 73 of them in his last year in office alone (as there was a Rep Senate).
  • To stop Presidents doing this, the Senate holds pro forma sessions (where only 1 senator is in the chamber, so it doesn’t count as recess).
  • EX: They held a pro forma session in 2017 over fears Trump would replace Jeff Sessions in the recess.
  • EX: Obama did 3 recess appointments in 2012 (during a pro-forma session), which were struck down by NLRB v Noel Canning 2014.

This again shows us the huge scope of the imperial president, and that their checks from Congress is quite limited in practice.

24
Q

Informal sources of presidential power and their use:
The power through institution:

Signing statements:

A
  • These are comments on the legislation that the president signs. They were traditionally a celebration, but are now more of a challenge.
  • EX: 81% of GWB’s 160 statements were constitutional challenges to the laws.
  • EX: Obama wrote 41, and Trump 61.
  • EX: Obama celebrated the HOPE Act 2013 that allowed people with HIV to get organs from donations.

These show the president’s power, but they are mainly symbolic and don’t really change much in the law. They are more just a flex.

25
Q

Informal sources of presidential power and their use:

The power of persuasion:

A

Prof. Richard Neustadt: “The president’s power is the power to persuade”.

  • The President must persuade because:
    • He can only propose legislation/the budget/nominations/ treaties/vetoes, so he must persuade Congress to vote for it.
    • In times of divided govt, he must persuade members of the opposition party to vote with him.
    • Federalism means you have to persuade the state govts (mainly the governor).
    • Checks and balances and the FFs intention of this happening to avoid tyranny, means persuasion of other branches is needed/beneficial.

The President can either persuade through other people, or perks:

  • Through other people:
    1. The VP: The last 9 VPs have all previously been in Congress, which means that they are more familiar with it. Biden was a Senator for 36 years before 2008, and so when Congresspeople had issues, they would often talk to Biden rather than Obama, as he understood the workings of the chamber and knew everyone. Also, as the president of the Senate, they have an office on the Capitol and so can has physical proximity to members of congress. EX: Mike Pence went to the Senate to try and persuade all Rep Senators to vote to reverse Obamacare in 2017.
    2. The Office of legislative affairs (part of EXOP): They are full time lobbyists for the president in congress. They frequently meet with members and build connections with them.
    3. Cabinet Secs: They are helpful in their policy areas. EX: in 2002, Colin Powell was sent to persuade Congress to vote to use troops in Iraq.
    4. The party leadership in Congress: the speaker, the majority/minority leaders, committee chairs and ranking members can be used to persuade other members (the middle man for the president).
  • Through perks:
    1. A personal phone call to congress members. EX: Clinton called representatives to ensure his budget passed (by 1 vote).
    2. Personal meetings. EX: Obama met with Susan Collins to persuade her to vote for the ARRA ($787bn) in 2009.
    3. Offering pork or earmarks to legislators, that help them get re-elected. EX: the Alaska bridge to no-where in 2005 ($250mill), was granted by Rep Congress, helping Palin (governor of Alaska, set to be the VP for McCain in 2008), gain popularity.
    4. Going to Capitol Hill to meet with a group of members.
    5. Offering to help the member’s re-election. EX: Trump in Georgia, Florida, West Virginia in 2018 and 2020, and also a lot on Twitter.
    6. Going on TV to plead the nation, to bypass Congress. EX: Trump in 2020 over exec nominations, threatening to adjourn congress if they don’t approve.

EX: To pass the PPACA, Obama used his SoU, DNC, meetings, town hall meetings with the public on TV, addressed house committees directly, etc.

  • One can use the Presidential Support Score to measure the success of their power of persuasion. This is the amount of times the president has won when taking a clear stance on an issue. (But this is only somewhat useful as it only counts quantity, not quality).
  • Also, due to the recent changes in politics, it is become harder for presidents to use this power:
    • The rise of social media means Congress members are more likely to just listen to what their voters want, not the president.
    • The rise in political outsiders winning the presidency means they have worse connections (Trump, Reagan, Obama).
    • Hyperpartisanship means it is harder. EX: The ARRA got 0 reps, and 3 Rep senators. The PPACA 2010 got 0 Reps in both chambers.
26
Q

ALL POWERS OF THE PRESIDENT:
Summary:

A

Constitutional powers:

  • Commander in chief (can deploy troops)
  • Pardon
  • Cabinet
  • Nominations and appointments
  • Legislation/budget proposal
  • Treaties
  • Chief executive

Extra-constitutional powers:

  • Through organisations and individuals - EXOP, VP
  • Through direct authority - Cabinet, RAs, EOs, EAs.
  • Through persuasion - through perks (personal meetings/calls/pork), through others (VP, maj/man leaders).
27
Q

Limitations on the president:

Congress:

A
  • Powers of Congress over the president:
    • P can propose legislation, but only C can pass it.
    • P can submit the annual budget, but only C can pass it.
    • P can veto legislation, C can override it with a ⅔ vote.
    • P can act as chief executive, C checks and balances on P as chief executive.
    • P nominates exec officials or judges, C confirms them.
    • P negotiates treaties, C ratifies them.
28
Q

Limitations on the president:

Judiciary:

A

It can declare the actions of any member of the exec branch unconstitutional:

  • EX:
    • US v Nixon 1978: Nixon was forced to hand over incriminating Watergate tapes.
    • Clinton v Paula Corbin Jones 1997: case on the Lewinsky scandal, which led to Clinton’s impeachment.
    • Rasul v Bush 2004: allowed Guantanamo prisoners access to US federal courts to challenge their imprisonment.
    • San Francisco v Trump 2017 (FEDERAL COURT): Ruled that Trump’s EO to defund sanctuary cities was unconstitutional.
    • NLRB v Noel Canning 2014: Obama was unconstitutional to make recess appointments during a pro-forma session.
    • Boumediene v Bush 2008: govt can’t deny habeas corpus rights to foreign prisoners in Guantanamo.
    • Bush v Gore 2000: Decided to hand Bush the presidency.
    • Hawaii v Trump 2017: upheld Trump’s Muslim travel ban.
    • Trump v Vance/Trump v Marzars 2020: Forced Trump to supply his tax returns to both NY state congress and federal congress.
29
Q

Limitations on the president:

Public opinion:

A
  • Presidents are restricted by the public as they will be wary to not do anything that will make them unlikely to get elected again. However, this is only really a constraint in the first term. EX: Nixon was forced to resign due to public outrage over Watergate.
  • EX since 1992:
    • Clinton: survived many scandals as his public approval rating remained high throughout his 2 terms (even growing after impeachment).
    • His ratings went up after signing NAFTA
    • His ratings went up after his impeachment! This was because people thought it was funny and humanising.
    • He left office with the highest approval ratings of any post-war president, due to the booming economy.
    • GWB: had over 86% public approval after 9/11.
    • But due to the Iraq War, Hurricane Katrina, and the recession, by 2008, it had fell to around 30%.
    • Obama: He had the initial hope and charisma. His ratings increased due to ending the Iraq War, being re-elected, and handling Hurricane Sandy well, and speaking emotively after Sandy Hook, and also after the Boston Marathon bombings.
    • They started to fall in 2014, after he lost the midterms, and Dem voters said he was at fault. Then in 2015 reached the low of 43% after the San Bernardino terrorist attacks.
    • Trump: He was such a polarising figure that his ratings were low, but very consistent, as his base wouldn’t budge, but so would his opponents.
    • Biden: enjoyed quite high ratings at the start as he reversed many things Trump did (rejoined the Paris climate accord, stopped the Keystone XL pipeline, etc). But it has slowly fallen to 42% (due to Afghanistan, etc).
30
Q

Limitations on the president:

Pressure Groups:

A
  • PGs that have a lot of public support can be hard to ignore. They have a lot of power and so the president is unlikely to do anything that will mobilise their supporters against them (esp if they traditionally support that party).
    • EX: Clinton’s 1993-4 healthcare reforms were widely thought to have be stopped by TV ads by the Health Insurance Association of America PG.
    • EX: The NRA has stopped a lot of gun control laws (after Sandy Hook under Obama).
31
Q

Limitations on the president:

The media:

A
  • The media and large businesses that own media stations can limit what the president can do by reporting on issues (EX: Trump following the guidance of FoxNews and giving Trump an easy ride).
  • The President is unlikely to do something that the media will report badly on (as it will influence the electorate, depending on the channel).
  • They are also present at WH press briefings.
  • EX: Twitter and Facebook banning Trump limited his actions.
32
Q

Limitations on the president:

Federal Bureaucracy:

A
  • The president is only one person, and there are 15 other departments and 60 agencies.
  • This means that the president will take advice from the other members.
  • The other members will have a role on shaping the proposed legislation of the president (esp in their policy areas).
  • Also, many federal govt programmes are implemented by state/local govts.
  • This means that the president doesn’t really have true control over cities and state issues, as its dealt with by local govts.
    • EX: California v Trump on climate change issues, or San Fran v Trump on sanctuary cities.
33
Q

Limitations on the president:

A united party:

A
  • The president needs his party’s approval in congress to pass legislation.
  • EX: Trump had party unity, and so was acquitted in 2019 and 2021.
  • EX: Clinton would have got his healthcare reforms through if it wasn’t for his disunited party.
34
Q

Limitations on the president:

EVENTS:

A
  • A major event will both stop the president’s agenda and force the focus on something else.
    • EX: Trump and COVID
  • It can change approval ratings.
    • EX: GWB and 9/11, and Hurricane Katrina.
  • It can create scandal
    • EX: Reagan Iran-Contra scandal, or the Iran hostage scandal under Carter.
  • It can turn the public against them.
    • EX: Obama was damaged by the 2008/9 recession (but it gave him the opportunity to pass Dodd Frank reforms).
35
Q

Limitations on the president:

Are second term presidents lame ducks?

A

YES:

  • Loss of political control:
    • They have harder times passing legislation as less control of congress.
    • This is both in terms of power of persuasion, and also that the last 5 2-term presidents have lost congress in their last 2 years.
  • Loss of popularity:
    • Obama and Bush only won re-election by less than 3% of the vote.
    • Also, public ratings fall as the public are tired of them.
  • More time for events to happen:
    • Clinton impeachment, Nixon Watergate, Iran Contra, Katrina, Iran hostage scandal, etc.
  • EX: Bush’s Iraq War disaster made clearer.
  • EX: Obama made huge steps in term 1 (PPACA, ARRA, Dodd-Frank). In term 2, it was mainly abroad (Paris accord, Iran Nuclear deal). He failed with Garland in 2016.

NO:

  • Powers don’t change:
    • Constitutional powers are the same.
    • EOs still available, and more likely as less control of congress (Obama: DAPA, DACA).
  • Can still act effectively:
    • Obama in FP: Paris accord, Iran deal, China climate deal, improved relations with Cuba, raised minimum wage.
    • Reagan: appointed 2 SC justices, signed an arms deal with the USSR.
  • Popularity doesn’t always diminish:
    • Reagan won re-election by 18%, Eisenhower by 15%.
  • Events can help:
    • Economy growth under Clinton meant he left with the highest post war ratings.

Politics - A Levels 2022 (9 decks)

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